A wish list for 2019
Credit to Author: BEN KRITZ, TMT| Date: Sat, 29 Dec 2018 16:16:24 +0000
Iwould like to share with you a wonderful time-saving technique that I discovered, albeit after a bit of trial and error, over the past few days: Don’t bother reading “predictions for 2019,” and use the time for more useful activities, such as getting a pedicure, or eating peanut butter straight out of the jar with a spoon.
Until this year, I have been as much a slave to the dubious tradition as anyone else. Each year, everyone with some sort of public stump feels duty-bound to offer at least four or five predictions for what will happen in the coming year. When the year in question is nearly finished and 80 to 90 percent of those forecasts have proven to be grossly inaccurate (I got one out of four right for my 2018 predictions), we then suffer a minor existential crisis over the decision of whether to acknowledge our errors and explain how we went so terribly wrong; parse data and events in such a way to present an argument that our wrong prediction was actually right after all; or pretend we didn’t say anything, and hope that no one else remembers that we did.
The reason for this is that humans by nature are uncomfortable with generalities. Uncertainty makes us, well, uncertain. We don’t like that, because we feel we ought to be and believe ourselves to be more effective when we can anticipate events and prepare our responses ahead of time, rather than reacting to them. Anyone who ever boasted that they “go with the flow,” or “roll with the punches” is either a liar or expressing helpless frustration at not being able to behave like a normal human being.
Thus, while a prediction such as, “The world will experience some degree of political and economic volatility in 2019” is not only completely accurate, it is likely the only prediction that can be made with the evidence at hand, it satisfies no one. Thanks for nothing, Captain Obvious, now please give us the comfort of imagined foresight, or else we’ll buy the paper on click on the website that does. So those of us in the business of arranging words into a useful form go beyond the rational, and end up in the same place next year, with neither ourselves nor our audience the least bit enlightened by the effort.
That’s one merry-go-round I’m going to jump off this year, convention be damned. Making predictions is a waste of my time; reading mine or anyone else’s is a waste of the readers’ time. What I believe may be more productive, if end-of-year/start of new year reflection cannot be entirely avoided, is to suggest a few things that should happen rather than what might happen (and probably won’t). By focusing on things that are within someone’s practical control we have the chance to go one better than simply anticipating the future, but to help direct it. In that vein, here is my wish list for 2019:
Put an end to the power struggle between Gloria Arroyo and Rodrigo Duterte: The local media has delicately characterized the recent skirmishing between the House of Representatives and the Executive branch as a clash of bodies, but what the inter-government chaos obviously boils down to is one very intelligent, very treacherous politician who never intended to retire as a “former” president staging what amounts to a soft coup against one who is not without skills of his own, but has been caught by surprise.
Whether you like him or not, one of the advantages Duterte has had until very recently is remarkable stability in his position; his sustained popular support, the cooperation of a supportive majority in the Legislature, and a complete absence of anything resembling a competent opposition has rendered characterizations of him as a rustic, murderous thug largely irrelevant. And whether you like it or not, that has augured well for the Philippines, and would continue to do so in an increasingly unsteady global economy, if Arroyo would leave well enough alone. Political chaos, on the other hand, would be utterly ruinous.
For the greater good, Arroyo needs to put a leash on her own ambitions. By the same token, Duterte could learn a thing or two about technical competence and statecraft from his predecessor. These two need to have lunch and settle things, before the situation gets out of hand to everyone’s detriment.
Pick up the pace in completing some key infrastructure projects: Half of Duterte’s term is gone and for at least a few months this year action on government projects will slow due to the midterm elections. There is at this point little hope that more than the barest fraction of the administration’s “build, build, build” aspirations will be realized by the time the president steps down in 2022.
What the administration can do as a reasonable alternative that would provide some substantial benefits, however, is accelerate the pace of development in some of the projects that have gotten underway. A few specific suggestions would be the MRT-7 line, which has made significant progress but still could be building faster; the Bulacan Bulk Water Project, which is proceeding at a snail’s pace; the replacement airport for the outdated and now apparently also insecure NAIA; and waste-to-energy projects that have been proposed in various parts of the country. There are likely others, and perhaps others that are more worthy than those mentioned here, but whichever projects are prioritized, the list should not be too long. Even if it means foregoing other plans, completing and putting into operation a few major projects within this year and next would pay enormous dividends.
Apply the administrative scalpel (or a chainsaw) to a few more defective agencies: Even though Congress has made the process a complete pain in the ass, Duterte’s concept of abolishing or reconfiguring agencies that just aren’t working — like the Road Board — is a good idea and should be extended. Candidates for dissolution or a comprehensive makeover abound; tackling any one or several of them will surely improve government efficiency and performance. Apart from obvious choices like the Bureau of Customs and the National Food Authority, other good candidates for some prejudicial management include the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority, the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board, the Laguna Lake Development Authority, and the Philippine Reclamation Authority.
Have a safe and enjoyable New Year’s celebration, and I’ll see you in 2019.
ben.kritz@manilatimes.net
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