Week 16 NFL playoff picture: Ravens threaten Steelers
Rex Ryan explains why he is not confident in the Patriots without a first-round bye in the playoffs. (1:12)
An eventful Saturday left the NFL playoff picture essentially unchanged from when the day began. The Baltimore Ravens strengthened their case for an AFC wild-card spot, the Kansas City Chiefs are on the brink of clinching home-field advantage and the Washington Redskins are on the verge of elimination.
Let’s take a closer look with the bulk of Week 16 set to be played Sunday:
Here is how the rest of the NFL playoff picture shakes out at the moment.
Note: X denotes a team that has clinched a playoff berth, while Z shows a team that has clinched its division.
A victory Sunday over the Seattle Seahawks would clinch the AFC West, along with a first-round bye. The Chiefs can clinch home-field advantage with a win and a Houston Texans loss. Those are the big consequences of the Los Angeles Chargers’ loss Saturday night to the Baltimore Ravens.
Next up: at Seattle Seahawks
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The Patriots’ loss in Week 15 elevated the Texans into sole possession of the No. 2 spot, putting them in range of the first playoff bye in franchise history. One minor obstacle: They have yet to clinch a postseason berth, let alone the AFC South. That could come this weekend. The Texans could clinch the playoffs with a win or a loss by the Ravens or Steelers, the AFC South with a win and losses by the Titans and Colts, and a first-round bye with a win and a Patriots loss.
That could all happen in Week 16.
Next up: at Philadelphia Eagles
A loss in Pittsburgh officially dropped the Patriots to the No. 3 spot. If current positioning holds, the Patriots will miss out on a first-round playoff bye for the first time in nine seasons. It is not unheard of for a team to advance to the Super Bowl from the wild-card round, but New England has never done it in three tries under coach Bill Belichick. Fortunately for them, the Patriots close at home with games against the Bills and Jets (9-19 combined record), and they can clinch the AFC East with a victory over the Bills. But they’ll need help from the Texans to get back to the No. 2 spot.
Next up: vs. Buffalo Bills
Who will draft a quarterback? How does Oakland use its three Day 1 picks? Todd McShay goes 1-32 in next year’s draft.
The Ravens’ win over the Chargers raises the urgency for Pittsburgh. If the Steelers lose one of their final two games, and the Ravens win at home in Week 17, they’ll fall out of the AFC North lead. With a 9-6-1 record, they’ll have to hope that there are no 10-6 teams to beat them out for sixth seed. The prospects of the Steelers missing the playoffs are suddenly quite real.
Next up: at New Orleans Saints
Saturday night’s loss weakens the Chargers’ chances to win the AFC West and AFC home-field advantage. A Chiefs win on Sunday would lock in the Chargers as the fifth seed. Even if the Chiefs lose on Sunday, the Chargers would have to root for the Chiefs to lose again in Week 17 — at home against the Oakland Raiders — to have a chance.
Next up: at Denver Broncos
The Ravens were put under severe pressure Saturday afternoon by the Tennessee Titans, who defeated the Washington Redskins for their ninth victory of the season. Had the Ravens lost, the sixth seed would have become a two-team battle between the Titans and Indianapolis Colts. As it is, the Ravens wouldn’t be able to clinch a playoff spot until Week 17. It’s worth noting that the AFC North crown is still within reach. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Ravens would win the division a victory in Week 17 AND a Steelers loss in one of their final two games.
Next up: vs. Cleveland Browns
In the hunt: Tennessee Titans (9-6), Indianapolis Colts (8-6), Miami Dolphins (7-7)
After Monday night’s victory over the Panthers, the Saints are a full game ahead of the Rams in the race for NFC home-field advantage in the playoffs. One more victory, in Week 16 or 17, will clinch it because they own the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Rams.
Next up: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
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The Rams might have kissed their chance at NFC home-field advantage goodbye. And after losing at home to the 6-7 Eagles, they are now in position to lose out on a first-round bye altogether. They’re only one game ahead of the Bears, who defeated them in Week 14 and thus hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. On the other hand, they can still clinch a first-round bye with a win in Week 16 and a Bears loss. Stay tuned.
Next up: at Arizona Cardinals
For the first time since 2010, the Bears are NFC North champions. They secured the inevitable Sunday by defeating the Packers at Soldier Field. The only question left now is whether they can sneak past the Rams for a first-round bye. The Bears hold the head-to-head tiebreaker if it comes to that.
Next up: at San Francisco 49ers
The loss in Indianapolis delayed what is still a likely NFC East title for the Cowboys. Their lead in the division is down to one game over both the Redskins and Eagles, but Dallas owns the tiebreaker against both. So the only way the Cowboys will lose the division is if they lose both of their remaining games and either the Redskins or Eagles finish 2-0. The FPI gives that scenario a 2.3 percent chance.
Next up: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Had they won at San Francisco, the Seahawks would have clinched a playoff berth. But one victory over their final two games should still do it. It won’t get any easier in Week 16 against the Chiefs, but if all else fails, they’ll host the woeful Cardinals in Week 17.
Next up: vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Had the Vikings not defeated the Dolphins on Sunday, they would have fallen out of the second wild-card spot. They have no margin for error with a half-game lead, and their only way to guarantee a playoff berth is to win their final two games — both against NFC North rivals. But they do have a chance to clinch a wild-card berth with a win in Week 16, a loss by the Eagles and a loss by the Redskins.
Next up: at Detroit Lions
In the hunt: Philadelphia Eagles (7-7), Washington Redskins (7-8), Carolina Panthers (6-8)