Projected 2019 NFL draft order: Welcome back to No. 1, Cardinals
Mel Kiper Jr. names Alabama DT Quinnen Williams and Dwayne Haskins as players who can challenge Nick Bosa as the No. 1 pick in the draft. (0:59)
Wins by the 49ers and the Raiders in Week 14 pushed the Cardinals into pole position for the No. 1 overall pick in in the 2019 NFL draft, according to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI).
Each week, FPI projects the order of next year’s draft by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game location.
When: April 25-27
Where: Nashville, Tennessee
How to watch: ESPN/ESPN2/ESPN App
• Projected draft order: Picks 1-32 »
• Kiper & McShay: 2019 draft primer »
• Kiper’s Big Board » | McShay’s Top 32 »
• Tracking underclassmen declarations »
• NFL draft coverage »
In some cases, the projected draft order will not match the current draft order. That’s because the FPI is considering the probability of outcomes that haven’t yet occurred and projecting strength of schedule at the end of the season, which is a tiebreaker for draft order.
Below is FPI’s projected first-round order for the 2019 draft, based on each team’s average draft position in the simulations. While each team’s current record is listed below, remember that the order is based on the record the model believes the teams will have after 16 games.
Order updated as of Dec. 10:
Jump to: 1-32 projections | More NFL draft coverage
1. Arizona Cardinals (3-10)
Average draft position: 1.7
FPI chance to earn top pick: 57 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 99 percent
2. San Francisco 49ers (3-10)
Average draft position: 2.5
FPI chance to earn top pick: 32 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 94 percent
3. Oakland Raiders (3-10)
Average draft position: 3.5
FPI chance to earn top pick: 7 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 87 percent
4. New York Jets (4-9)
Average draft position: 4.3
FPI chance to earn top pick: 4 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 80 percent
5. Atlanta Falcons (4-9)
Average draft position: 7.1
FPI chance to earn top pick: 1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 35 percent
6. Buffalo Bills (4-9)
Average draft position: 7.2
FPI chance to earn top pick: <1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 32 percent
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9)
Average draft position: 8.1
FPI chance to earn top pick: <1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 21 percent
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-8)
Average draft position: 8.7
FPI chance to earn top pick: <1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 21 percent
9. Detroit Lions (5-8)
Average draft position: 9.4
FPI chance to earn top pick: <1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 16 percent
10. New York Giants (5-8)
Average draft position: 10.8
FPI chance to earn top pick: <1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 8 percent
In some cases, the projected draft order will not match the current draft order. That’s because the FPI is considering the probability of outcomes that haven’t yet occurred and projecting strength of schedule at the end of the season, which is a tiebreaker for draft order.
Below is FPI’s projected first-round order for the 2019 draft, based on each team’s average draft position in the simulations. While each team’s current record is listed below, remember that the order is based on the record the model believes the teams will have after 16 games.
Order updated as of Dec. 10:
Jump to: 1-32 projections | More NFL draft coverage
Average draft position: 1.7
FPI chance to earn top pick: 57 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 99 percent
Average draft position: 2.5
FPI chance to earn top pick: 32 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 94 percent
Average draft position: 3.5
FPI chance to earn top pick: 7 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 87 percent
Average draft position: 4.3
FPI chance to earn top pick: 4 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 80 percent
Average draft position: 7.1
FPI chance to earn top pick: 1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 35 percent
Average draft position: 7.2
FPI chance to earn top pick: <1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 32 percent
Average draft position: 8.1
FPI chance to earn top pick: <1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 21 percent
Average draft position: 8.7
FPI chance to earn top pick: <1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 21 percent
Average draft position: 9.4
FPI chance to earn top pick: <1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 16 percent
Average draft position: 10.8
FPI chance to earn top pick: <1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 8 percent