Betting buzz: Big Sunday shuffles Super Bowl odds
Credit to Author: ESPN| Date: Mon, 16 Dec 2024 13:17:09 EST
Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page | ESPN BET 
The Detroit Lions loss to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday shook up the Super Bowl futures market and also kept the door open for the Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North and obtain the conference’s No. 1 playoff seed. That quest continues on “Monday Night Football,” where the Vikings enter as seven-point home favorites over the Chicago Bears at ESPN BET.
Despite heavy action on Minnesota by both bets and handle across the sportsbooks marketplace, the Vikes have not been able to get over the key number and remain on the opening line of -7 as of Monday afternoon. When the two division rivals met in Chicago during Week 12, Minnesota narrowly covered a 2.5-point spread, defeating the Bears 30-27 in overtime.
The Vikings have already clinched a playoff spot after the Seattle Seahawks lost to the Green Bay Packers Sunday night, but a Minnesota win would go a long way towards giving them a chance to overtake Detroit.
Heading into Monday night’s contest, the Vikings have an 11% chance to obtain the NFC’s No. 1 seed, trailing the Lions (56%) and Philadelphia Eagles (33%), according to ESPN Analytics.
That roughly tracks with the odds, as Detroit is a commanding -475 to win the NFC North compared to Minnesota’s +325. ESPN BET reports that while the Lions and Packers hold an overwhelming majority of bets and handle in the market overall, the Vikings have attracted a leading 59.4% of tickets and 75% of handle over the past 30 days.
David Purdum and Doug Greenberg: The balance of power in the NFL shifted quickly in just a few hours on Sunday afternoon, and sportsbooks around the country moved with it.
The Detroit Lions entered the day as +225 favorites to win the Super Bowl, with the Kansas City Chiefs (+425), Philadelphia Eagles (+500), Buffalo Bills (+600) and Baltimore Ravens (+1000) trailing just behind, per ESPN BET odds.
With Detroit falling to Buffalo at home and the rest of the teams pulling out victories, the Lions saw their championship odds lengthen across the sportsbook marketplace, but there’s no consensus on how far they fell: As of Sunday evening, they were favorites at ESPN BET (+300) and BetMGM (+325), were tied at the top with the Bills at Caesars (+425), and had been supplanted as favorites entirely at DraftKings (+450) and FanDuel (+460).
ESPN BET reported receiving a “wave of betting activity on the Bills” on Sunday but elected to keep Detroit as the Super Bowl favorite.
DraftKings showed Buffalo as co-favorites with Philadelphia at +425, while FanDuel had the Bills as the standalone favorites at +420. Buffalo had already been gaining momentum with the betting public despite a loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 14: From last Sunday morning until Wednesday afternoon, the Bills had taken a leading 13.7% of bets and 29.2% of handle to win the Super Bowl at ESPN BET.
Meanwhile, Baltimore shortened after a blowout victory over the New York Giants, with books bringing the Ravens down to anywhere between +800 and +900. Kansas City, on the other hand, largely saw its odds lengthen despite its win, likely because of a potentially significant injury to QB Patrick Mahomes which could have ramifications in the near and long term.
“We made the Bills co-favorites for the AFC with Kansas City,” Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, said. “As a result of the Bills’ dominance, MVP pricing is almost over, with Josh Allen -750 for a well-deserved MVP award.”
On Sunday afternoon as the early kickoffs ended, oddsmakers searched the internet for credible reports on Patrick Mahomes‘ injury and debated how much the Kansas City Chiefs‘ superstar quarterback is worth to his team and the point spread.
Mahomes suffered a right ankle injury midway through the fourth quarter of the Chiefs’ 21-7 road win over the Cleveland Browns. With Kansas City leading by 14, Mahomes left the game and did not return. He told reporters afterward that he “could have finished the game in different circumstances,” and coach Andy Reid said Mahomes’ ankle was not broken but that his quarterback’s status for Saturday’s game against the Houston Texans was undetermined.
The Chiefs had been 3.5-point home favorites over the Texans in the lookahead lines posted last week by sportsbooks. When the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas reposted the line Sunday night, the Chiefs were 2.5-point underdogs to the Texans, a line that reflected the book’s anticipation of Mahomes sitting out in Week 16. Other sportsbooks kept the game off the board.
Mucklow of Caesars Sportsbook said Mahomes’ point spread value is in the “5.5- to 6-point range.”
Ed Salmons, veteran NFL oddsmaker with the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said Mahomes, while obviously valuable, isn’t worth as much to the line on this version of the Chiefs as he was in past seasons.
“While Kansas City’s winning, I don’t think they’re winning all because of Mahomes,” Salmons told ESPN on Sunday. “It’s definitely a defensive-oriented team that can run the ball, good at kicking field goals and winning close games.”
— Cleveland Browns quarterback Jameis Winston was a -200 favorite to throw an interception against the Kansas City Chiefs. Winston attracted two times more bets than any other quarterback offered in DraftKings’ interception market. Winston threw three interceptions in a 21-7 loss to the Chiefs.
Caesars Sportsbook offered odds on Winston to throw two (+205) or three interceptions (+650) and took bets on each. “The customers know the gift that keeps on giving is taking [Winston] two-plus picks and three-plus picks,” Mucklow said. “All obliged.”
— The total on the Bills-Lions game closed at 55.5, the highest over/under in any game since 2012. The game went over the total in the third quarter.
–The Titans, who lost 37-27 to the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, dropped to 2-12 against the spread. That’s tied with the 2011 Rams, 2007 Ravens and 1987 Bengals for the worst 14-game ATS start in the Super Bowl era, according to ESPN Research.
–The Pittsburgh Steelers lost as an underdog for the first time this season and broke a streak of seven consecutive wins as underdogs dating back to last season.
More from ESPN Betting:
MLB futures: Every team’s odds to win the World Series
NFL props: Anytime TD scorers | Under-the-radar bets
College football: Futures
College basketball futures: Men’s | Women’s
NBA betting: Daily Picks | Futures
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