Betting buzz: South Carolina most popular bet to make the CFP

Credit to Author: ESPN| Date: Wed, 27 Nov 2024 16:43:26 EST

Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.

Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.

Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page | ESPN BET

Pamela Maldonado details why she is backing Texas A&M against Texas.

Doug Greenberg: On Tuesday night, the College Football Playoff selection committee released its latest rankings heading into Rivalry Week, providing both hope and anxiety for bettors who have placed future wagers throughout the season.

Before the season, Alabama was the most-bet team to make the playoff by handle and the third-most-bet by tickets at ESPN BET. The Crimson Tide are currently on the outside looking in at No. 13 in the rankings. On the other hand, third-seeded Miami was the second-most-bet team by money and the fourth-most by bets in the preseason.

The team that gained the most steam throughout the season was undoubtedly Indiana, who is essentially a lock for the playoff at -3500 odds after beginning the season off ESPN BET’s oddsboard because it was such a long shot. The sportsbook reports that from the beginning of the season until the first CFP rankings released on Nov. 5, the Hoosiers notched the second-most wagers and fifth-most money to make the playoff.

Bet tracking tool Pikkit notes that Indiana garnered just 42 bets across its entire user base before the season, and has since attracted 20 times that number.

As for who bettors will watch going forward, that honor belongs to South Carolina (+550), which is No. 15 in the CFP rankings and shows the most bets since Nov. 5 at ESPN BET. Pikkit also notes that since Tuesday night, the most popular wager it saw in this market is Ole Miss to miss the CFP (-1200 at ESPN BET).

The Rebels are part of a +6325 parlay at DraftKings that seeks to correctly guess nine of the 12 playoff teams; it is a $5,000 wager to win $321,274.04.

>>>Odds by ESPN BET

Doug Greenberg and David Purdum: Arguably the wildest game of the 2024 NFL season produced the year’s largest outright upset when the Dallas Cowboys took down the Washington Commanders on Sunday.

Dallas entered Northwest Stadium as an 11-point underdog after opening at +9.5 at ESPN BET. Washington’s spread received support from public bettors to the tune of more than 70% of tickets at multiple sportsbooks, with positive money splits at BetMGM and the fifth-largest handle at DraftKings. ESPN BET also reported a whopping 90% of bets and 87% of handle on the Commanders moneyline, while BetMGM said Dallas (+450) was the third-most-bet underdog to win of the day.

Washington never truly got close to covering, with its largest lead being six points in the third quarter. Throughout the contest, bettors took advantage of the Commanders’ apparent struggles and backed the Cowboys at a 66% clip on the live moneyline at ESPN BET.

The end of the game got unhinged when the two teams rattled off 41 combined points — the most in the final nine minutes of regulation since 2012, per ESPN Research — after scoring just 19 combined points up to that point, an incredible result for bettors who took the over, which closed around 45.

“The over in the Cowboys-Commanders game was the best result of the morning for the customers, although it took a while to get across the line,” Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, said in an email to ESPN, noting that it was the second-biggest decision of the day for the book. “The crazy ending delivered for the over bettors.”

The Cowboys are the first double-digit underdog to win outright this season, the latest in the season for that to occur since 2016, according to ESPN Research. Dallas and the Carolina Panthers also became the first two teams to cover as double-digit underdogs this season, breaking a five-game ATS winning streak for big favorites.

Sportsbooks have been limiting the number of big favorites in general this season, anointing just seven double-digit faves thus far, the fewest through Week 12 since 2016. They could be onto something.

Aside from the Cowboys, the Tennessee Titans also won outright as big underdogs, 32-27 against the Houston Texans, who closed as 7.5-point favorites. Dallas and Tennessee are the 11th and 12th teams to win outright as at least seven-point underdogs, tying the most wins for such teams through Week 12 in the last 20 seasons, per ESPN Research.

For the Titans, it ends an ugly ATS skid that saw them fail to cover in six straight and go a league-worst 1-9 against the number entering Sunday.

Meanwhile, Sunday’s other double-digit underdog, Carolina, nearly pulled off a monumental win against the Kansas City Chiefs after closing at +10.5. The Panthers have covered in three straight contests for the first time since 2022.

It was another narrow victory for the reigning back-to-back Super Bowl champion Chiefs, who are 10-1 straight up but 4-7 ATS on the season, tied for the third-worst spread record in the NFL. Kansas City has failed to cover in five straight, tied for its longest ATS losing streak under head coach Andy Reid.

• A bettor at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas placed a $1 million bet on the Los Angeles Rams +3 (-120) in their Sunday primetime game against the Philadelphia Eagles, the sportsbook reported on social media.

A bettor at @CaesarsPalace wagered $1M on the Rams +3 (-120) 😱

Potential payout: $1,833,333 pic.twitter.com/GBBod2AoCq

• The San Francisco 49ers closed as 6.5-point underdogs to the Green Bay Packers, snapping the 49ers’ streak of 36 regular-season games being the favorite. It was the third-longest such streak in the Super Bowl era. The 49ers hadn’t been an underdog since the 2022 NFC Championship Game against the Los Angeles Rams.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving was all the rage in DraftKings’ prop market this week. More money was riding on Over 14.5 yards for Irving’s longest run than any other player prop on the board at DraftKings. It was a winning wager thanks to a 56-yard scamper in the Bucs’ rout of the Giants. At the same time, Irving was the most popular bet at DraftKings not to score a touchdown at -200 odds, a losing wager due to Irving’s 6-yard touchdown run.

• It’s no wonder the Lions are the betting public’s darling this season. The Lions improved to 9-2 against the spread this season with Sunday’s 24-6 win. They were the most bet team Sunday at multiple sportsbooks. Coach Dan Campbell improved to 47-26 against the spread in his career over the Indianapolis Colts. That’s the best record against the spread of any coach with at least 10 games in the Super Bowl era. Detroit is 44-18 under Campbell, who took over in 2021. That’s the best ATS mark of any team in the league during that span.

• Bookmakers are noticing a trend this season — favorites are rolling in the afternoon, much to the delight of the betting public. “The morning games were close to breaking even; the book’s saving grace was the upsets in Houston and Washington,” Mucklow of Caesars Sportsbook said. “As seems to be the case each week, the afternoon games continue to belong to the customers, with favorites going 34-11 for the season straight up.”

Doug Greenberg: For better or worse, Colorado has been one of the most-talked-about teams in college football the past two seasons, and that fervor directly translated to betting action, both game-to-game and in the futures markets. Thus, the Buffaloes’ 37-21 loss at Kansas on Saturday was a massive blow to their backers in the short and long term.

Colorado-Kansas was Saturday’s second-most-bet game at several sportsbooks across the country, trailing only Indiana-Ohio State, and CU in particular was highly backed after covering in eight straight games, the longest active cover streak in the nation before this loss. ESPN BET and BetMGM reported the Buffaloes had upwards of 67% of the handle to cover the spread against the Jayhawks, with the former also reporting 75.5% of the tickets for the cover.

The outright loss is Colorado’s third of the season, which makes its path to the College Football Playoff that much more difficult, though it likely will benefit from BYU’s 28-23 loss at Arizona State. Deion Sanders’ squad has 92.4% of bets and 55.1% of the handle on the “Yes” option in the “To Make the Playoff” market, as well as a leading 17.5% of handle to win the Big 12. The Buffaloes rank second for handle (14.9%) in that market, narrowly trailing Kansas State (15%).

Colorado is not in ESPN BET’s top 10 most-bet teams to win the national title, with those odds now sitting at +6000.

If there’s one definite positive for Colorado’s season, it’s that Travis Hunter is now a near-lock to win the Heisman Trophy. The two-way star went off for 125 receiving yards and two touchdowns, as well as seven tackles and a pass defensed on Saturday, which moved his odds to win college football’s highest individual honor to -700 at ESPN BET.

Odds and ends

Ole Miss‘ 24-17 loss to Florida caused its odds to win the national championship to plummet from +1100 to 1,000-1. The Gators closed as 13.5-point underdogs, making it their second-largest outright upset win in the past 45 seasons, per ESPN Research.

SMU clinched a spot in the ACC championship game with its 33-7 win at Virginia. The Mustangs entered the season at +1200 to win the conference, seventh on the odds board.

Saturday’s most-bet game saw Ohio State easily cover its -10.5 spread against Indiana. OSU shortened from +300 to +260 to win the national championship, while Indiana lengthened from +2500 to +7500 by Saturday evening.

Miami‘s 42-14 win over Wake Forest brought it to 4-0 against the spread as a favorite of 20 or more points, tied for the best such record in the nation with Ole Miss.
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