Stop rate for all 134 CFB teams: Notre Dame at the top
Credit to Author: Max Olson| Date: Tue, 19 Nov 2024 23:48:28 EST
We’ve got a new national leader in stop rate this week, and it’s a defense that has done an unbelievable job this season despite losing some of its top talent: Notre Dame.
What is stop rate? It’s a basic measurement of success: the percentage of a defense’s drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs. Defensive coordinators have the same goal regardless of their scheme, opponent or conference: prevent points and get off the field. Stop rate is a simple metric but can offer a good reflection of a defense’s effectiveness on a per-drive basis in today’s faster-tempo game.
Last year, national champ Michigan finished No. 1 with a stop rate of 81.6% in its games against FBS opponents. The top 25 teams in the final 2023 stop rate standings won a total of 249 games, with seven earning conference titles. Great teams find a way to get stops in critical situations.
Stop rate is not an advanced stat and is no substitute for Bill Connelly’s SP+ or other more comprehensive metrics. It’s merely a different method for evaluating success on defense.
Coming out of Week 12, Max Olson’s defensive metric on how good a team is at stopping an opponent from scoring on each drive.
The Fighting Irish moved into the No 1 spot this week with a stop rate of 81.7% against FBS opponents this season. Louisville is the only team they’ve faced during their 9-1 start that has scored more than 20 points. They’re tied for first in FBS in takeaways (25) and have been excellent on third downs and in the red zone thanks to an elite pass defense that ranks No. 2 nationally in yards per attempt (5.3) and No. 1 in completion percentage (47.7%).
The Irish lost All-America cornerback Benjamin Morrison to a season-ending hip injury and are also missing pass rushers Jordan Botelho and Boubacar Traore. Defensive tackle Howard Cross III sat out their 35-14 win over Virginia with an ankle injury and is questionable this week. The fact they’ve been this good without those difference-makers is rather remarkable.
To make a deep run in this 12-team College Football Playoff, you need the kind of competitive depth that Notre Dame has shown off on defense this season. Now they need to finish strong with No. 24 Army and USC up next. Bryson Daily and the Black Knights will present some unique challenges this week and do a masterful job of limiting possessions by controlling the clock, but the Irish have held eight of 10 opponents under 150 rushing yards.
Here are a few more stop rate updates to note following Week 12:
Army ranks No. 3 in this week’s stop rate standings at 80.6%. One stat that really stands out about their defense: If you filter out the garbage-time drives they’ve played during their eight wins over FBS opponents, their stop rate jumps to a ridiculous 93.1%. That’s by far the best in the country.
Ohio State (No. 2) and Indiana (No. 8) is another showdown of top-10 stop rate defenses, and the Big Ten’s other two CFP contenders continue to move up the standings. Oregon moved up to 11th following its 16-13 road win at Wisconsin and Penn State has climbed to 13th after its 49-10 win at Purdue.
Tulane’s defense has been dominant in its three games since its 45-37 win over North Texas and moved up to 17th in stop rate this week. The Green Wave now rank fourth nationally in third-down defense as well. Don’t sleep on them as a real contender to grab the G5 bid in the Playoff.
Miami (OH), Tulane and Clemson moved into the top 25 in this week’s stop rate standings while Wisconsin, Navy and Nebraska dropped out.
Note: All data is courtesy of TruMedia. Games against FCS opponents and end-of-half drives in which the opponent took a knee or ran out the clock were filtered out.