Way-too-early 2025 MLB Power Rankings: Who’s No. 1? How far down are the Mets?!
Credit to Author: David Schoenfield| Date: Fri, 1 Nov 2024 19:25:33 EST
Another MLB season is in the books, and what a ride it was.
The 2024 season had a little bit of everything, from incredible individual performances — Shohei Ohtani‘s historic 50/50 campaign, Aaron Judge‘s season for the ages and pitching Triple Crowns from Tarik Skubal and Chris Sale — to improbable playoff runs from the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers to a historic World Series clash between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees resulting in the Dodgers’ second title in five years.
Now that the Fall Classic is over, we’re flipping the page to our annual Way-Too-Early Power Rankings. We’re ranking the teams based on where they stand entering the offseason — one in which Juan Soto will be the most-sought-after free agent on the market (and undoubtedly improve the ranking of whichever team lands him). Let’s dive right in.
Final 2024 Power Rankings | Final 2024 regular-season grades
2024 record: 98-64
Final 2024 ranking: 2
Dave Roberts called this his most challenging season as manager, and while the Dodgers did lead the majors with 98 wins, they had to use 17 different starting pitchers to do it — and only two of them reached even 100 innings. Coming off their World Series championship, most key players will return: Teoscar Hernandez and Jack Flaherty are the two main free agents along with reliever Blake Treinen. But Ohtani will be pitching next year and some of the injured starters will return or hopefully pitch more innings. Sure, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy and Freddie Freeman are all in their 30s, and the Dodgers might need a shortstop depending on where Tommy Edman plays, but you know they’ll spend money, whether it’s re-signing Hernandez or maybe signing Willy Adames — or, who knows, even going after Soto.
2024 record: 95-67
Final 2024 ranking: 1
The top of the 2024 standings was more muddled than it has been in years — seven teams won between 91 and 98 games — so it’s no surprise that the top of these rankings is difficult to order. It seems like the Phillies, coming off 95 wins, have the highest floor, since they have almost everybody coming back (relievers Carlos Estevez and Jeff Hoffman are their only notable free agents). Their rotation depth helps, as does Bryce Harper still having the ability to hit like an MVP contender. The obvious concerns: Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos and J.T. Realmuto will all be 32 or older in 2025 and the bench remains a weak spot, despite president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski’s attempts to upgrade it last season.
2024 record: 93-69
Final 2024 ranking: 4
Can the Padres remain as cohesive for an entire season as they were in the second half of 2024, when they went 43-20 and looked like a World Series favorite entering October? They’ll be without Joe Musgrove, who blew out his elbow in his playoff start and will undergo Tommy John surgery, plus All-Star Jurickson Profar, catcher Kyle Higashioka and reliever Tanner Scott are free agents. Ha-Seong Kim will likely opt out of his $8 million mutual option, so they might need a shortstop (Xander Bogaerts filled in there, but he’s best suited for second base these days). There are holes to fill, but general manager A.J. Preller will be aggressive as always — and Jackson Merrill looks like the next big Padres star.
2024 record: 91-71
Final 2024 ranking: 9
It was an oddly flat ending to the season for the Orioles: 33-33 in the second half and then a sad loss to Kansas City in the wild-card series in which they scored one run in two games.
They have two major free agents to replace: Corbin Burnes (15-9, 2.92 ERA) and Anthony Santander (44 home runs, 102 RBIs, .814 OPS), plus Kyle Bradish will be out after Tommy John surgery. The O’s have the young bats to replace Santander — Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo, maybe Sam Basallo in the second half — plus Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser should be better. And they have an MVP contender to build around in Gunnar Henderson. They’ll need to add a starter to go alongside Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin, but Baltimore comfortably projects as a playoff team based on its offensive foundation.
2024 record: 92-69
Final 2024 ranking: 6
The 2025 Guardians are going to look similar to the team that reached the ALCS: bullpen, defense and Jose Ramirez. As always, they’re going to try to jam a 90-win team into a 70-win payroll. Re-signing Matthew Boyd would be a relatively cheap option for the rotation, but Josh Naylor might be trade bait entering his final season before free agency. The bullpen probably gives the Guardians an 80-win floor, although it will be difficult to repeat 2024’s regular-season performance. If top prospects Travis Bazzana and Chase DeLauter click, they could make an impact in the second half, and since Cleveland has the youngest group of position players in the majors, you can pencil in some general improvement across the board for the lineup.
2024 record: 89-73
Final 2024 ranking: 8
It was always going to be a herculean task to repeat the improbable 2023 run to the World Series, and though Arizona was a better team in 2024, it missed the playoffs by virtue of losing the tiebreaker to the Mets and Braves. It doesn’t get any more frustrating than that.
The Diamondbacks have a few key contract situations in limbo: club options on Eugenio Suarez ($15 million) and Merrill Kelly ($7 million) that they’ll pick up and a mutual option on Joc Pederson ($14 million) that is a tougher decision. Jordan Montgomery has a $22.5 million player option coming off a 6.23 ERA — it’s hard to see him turning that down. The always reliable Christian Walker is a free agent and he’ll be in demand (maybe Pavin Smith takes over at first). Assuming Montgomery returns, getting more from him and Eduardo Rodriguez (5.04 ERA in 10 starts) will be a key to returning to the postseason.
2024 record: 89-73
Final 2024 ranking: 11
The easy assumption is that the Braves will bounce back in 2025 — closer to their 104 wins of 2023 than the 89 of 2024. After all, they’ll have Ronald Acuña Jr. back, for starters. Except when he returned from knee surgery in 2022, it wasn’t until the next year that he was back at full strength (and he might sit out the first month of 2025 anyway). He also wasn’t anything special before his injury in 2024: .716 OPS in 49 games.
But the biggest issue here: Max Fried is a free agent and not guaranteed to return as the Braves failed to extend him despite attempts to do so. So is Charlie Morton, although he’s more likely to return. They also had offensive holes at shortstop and left field, and Sean Murphy hasn’t hit since the first half of 2023. Chris Sale‘s season-ending health issues are a red flag for 2025 — and he just pitched his most innings since 2017. Atlanta will get Spencer Strider back at some point and the offense should be better, but regression from the bullpen and Reynaldo Lopez (1.99 ERA) should also be expected.
2024 record: 83-79
Final 2024 ranking: 16
The Cubs had a second straight disappointing season, this time under new manager Craig Counsell. Unfortunately, it was sort of the same drill: They once again underperformed their Pythagorean record (by seven wins in 2023 and five wins in 2024). The biggest question heading into the offseason is whether Cody Bellinger will exercise his $27.5 million player option. Chicago won’t be heartbroken if he does decide to opt out. Porter Hodge looks like a late-game solution in the bullpen, and the Cubs have a deep farm system with young players such as infielder Matt Shaw and outfielder Kevin Alcantara ready to contribute to the 2025 team. What they really need is a big bat for the middle of the lineup. If Bellinger does opt out, that’s more cash to throw Soto’s way.
2024 record: 94-68
Final 2024 ranking: 3
This might be a generous ranking. Without Soto, the Yankees don’t look all that different from the 2023 Yankees, who won 82 games and missed the playoffs. Yes, they will be the favorites to re-sign him, but it’s no guarantee that owner Hal Steinbrenner will give Soto the $500 million it might take — not when Judge is under a $360 million contract. The rotation is the projected strength, although Gerrit Cole‘s elbow injury early in the 2024 season and decline in swing-and-miss stuff is a concern. There are holes at first base and second base (Gleyber Torres is also a free agent), and key relievers Clay Holmes and Tommy Kahnle are also free agents. The offseason rests on signing Soto — and if that doesn’t happen, it will be fascinating to see how the Yankees pivot.
2024 record: 81-81
Final 2024 ranking: 17
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The Red Sox are sitting pretty, with an exciting young core led by Jarren Duran — who had a breakout season in 2024 and was fourth in the majors with 83 extra-base hits — and an impressive group of position player prospects all ready to hit the majors at some point in 2025 in Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel, who were all in the top 55 of ESPN Kiley McDaniel’s midseason prospects update. Wilyer Abreu and defensive wizard Ceddanne Rafaela had promising rookie seasons, and hopefully the Red Sox will get a healthy season from Triston Casas. That leaves the pitching staff to upgrade and free agents to replace in Tyler O’Neill, Nick Pivetta, Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen. The question: Does owner John Henry have the desire to run a big payroll again after cutting back significantly the past few seasons?
2024 record: 88-73
Final 2024 ranking: 7
The trend can’t be ignored: The Astros have gone from 106 wins in 2022 to 90 in 2023 to 88 this season, although they did still win their seventh AL West title in eight seasons. Longtime stalwart Alex Bregman is a free agent, although the Astros are expected to make him a competitive offer. So is Justin Verlander — he had a 5.48 ERA — and trade acquisition Yusei Kikuchi, who went 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA with Houston. Kyle Tucker is in his final season of team control, raising the question of whether the Astros can afford both Bregman and Tucker and whether they would consider trading Tucker for some infusion of younger prospects.
The rotation is still in good shape with Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti, plus the expected midseason returns of Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy from Tommy John surgery (Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are bigger unknowns). They’ll need to add bullpen depth, though, and first base is a problem.
2024 record: 85-77
Final 2024 ranking: 15
The Mariners should have played better in 2024. Then again, they should have played better in 2023. They’re one of only seven franchises with a winning record each of the past four seasons — yet have only one playoff appearance to show for it. They’re eighth in wins since 2021 — and haven’t won a playoff game at home — and played .545 ball, mirroring the infamous 54% quote that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto apologized for last offseason.
Dipoto has indicated there are no plans to trade any of the young starters (Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, George Kirby, Bryan Woo), but that could leave Luis Castillo on the table. Owner John Stanton said payroll would increase but didn’t say by how much, and Dipoto indicated most of that would come from in-house increases (Gilbert enters his second year of arbitration, and Kirby and Cal Raleigh hit it for the first time). Can the Mariners find a way to win, say, 58% of their games?
2024 record: 93-69
Final 2024 ranking: 5
What a fun, exciting season for the Brewers, although it ended with a crushing loss to the Mets in the NLDS. Shortstop Willy Adames does head into free agency — coming off a 32-homer, 112-RBI season that will be difficult to replace (Joey Ortiz probably takes over at shortstop) — but the young foundation remains, with Jackson Chourio leading the way. Indeed, with the way Chourio hit in the second half — .310/.363/.544 — it’s not a stretch to envision him as an MVP candidate (non-Shohei Ohtani division) as soon as 2025. The other big questions: Will Christian Yelich be able to contribute after his back surgery and will starters Tobias Myers and Colin Rea be able to repeat their surprising performances?
2024 record: 86-76
Final 2024 ranking: 13
The Royals improved an incredible 30 wins, from 56 last season to 86 and a wild-card berth this year. Their plus-91 run differential suggests it wasn’t a fluke — that’s the same as the Padres and Astros. And no doubt, Bobby Witt Jr. and Cole Ragans are so good they give this team something close to a .500-ish floor. All the key players return with the possible exception of Michael Wacha, who has a $16 million player option. There’s even hope the bullpen could improve in 2025.
However, the concerns: The Royals received 151 starts from their top five starters, which will be difficult to repeat, and Seth Lugo and Wacha combined to go 29-17 with a 3.16 ERA and that doesn’t feel repeatable. Given the holes in the lineup and the old Bill James Plexiglass Principle — teams that improve significantly in one season tend to fall back in the next — it might be difficult to win 86 again.
2024 record: 82-80
Final 2024 ranking: 14
The Twins finally won a playoff game in 2023 (beating the Blue Jays in the wild-card series) and promptly announced they were cutting payroll for 2024. The fans responded as you might expect: Attendance has dipped below 2 million the past two seasons despite Minnesota having winning teams (it was over 3 million the first two years of Target Field and over 2 million most of past decade). Then came the best news Twins fans could hope for: The Pohlad family announced the team was up for sale. On the field, they’ll need better pitching as well as better health (we’ve heard this before) from Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa, who averaged 90 games this past season.
2024 record: 86-76
Final 2024 ranking: 12
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It was a magical ride to end the season, as the Tigers finished with a 31-13 run that propelled them from also-rans to playoff team. It was all pitching as the staff posted a 2.72 ERA over those 44 games. It was ace Tarik Skubal, manager A.J. Hinch pulling the right strings at the right time and a bullpen that turned unhittable for eight weeks. It’s just unclear whether the pen can replicate that over a full season — and the offense still has holes, with only Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, Matt Vierling and Parker Meadows posting an OPS+ over 100 among those with 250 plate appearances. The good news is that everyone is back, Jackson Jobe should enter the rotation, and while the Tigers are stuck with Javier Baez‘s $25 million salary, there should be payroll flexibility for president of baseball operations Scott Harris to make a couple of significant additions.
2024 record: 78-84
Final 2024 ranking: 22
For now, the 2023 World Series championship sticks out as a fluke between two losing seasons. The offense collapsed in 2024, scoring 198 fewer runs than it did in 2023, with Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien and Jonah Heim the primary culprits. It didn’t help that Josh Jung and Evan Carter combined for just 91 games (and didn’t do much when they did play). Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi (he’ll opt out of his player option), Max Scherzer and Andrew Heaney are all free agents; combined with the trade of Michael Lorenzen, that’s 87 starts to replace. Closer Kirby Yates, who had 33 saves and a 1.17 ERA, is also a free agent.
Maybe the Rangers will get Jacob deGrom for an entire season — and Kumar Rocker, Tyler Mahle and perhaps Jack Leiter could join the rotation. Plus, there is still youth on the offense in Wyatt Langford, Carter and Jung. It will be interesting to see how the Rangers act this offseason: Do they believe in the 2023 version of this team or will they look to make some changes?
2024 record: 89-73
Final 2024 ranking: 10
It was a wonderful run, from losing miserably in early June to two wins away from reaching the World Series. But no team has more work ahead in the offseason than the Mets as they have a long list of players heading into free agency: Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea (who will surely opt out of his player option), Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, J.D. Martinez, Jose Iglesias, Ryne Stanek, Jesse Winker, Adam Ottavino and Harrison Bader, among others. That’s 94 starts and 33 wins from Manaea, Quintana and Severino to replace, plus Alonso’s power in the middle of the order. Obviously, the Mets have the money to re-sign some of these players — Alonso and Manaea will be the top priorities — and will go after Soto, but for now they have holes to fill. They have nearly $180 million coming off the payroll and president of baseball operations David Stearns’ task will be to fill that in a smarter way. Obviously, they’ll rank higher once they make additions, but this is where they sit right now.
2024 record: 80-82
Final 2024 ranking: 20
The Rays missed the playoffs for the first time in six years and had their first losing record since also finishing 80-82 in 2017 — and they overachieved just to do that, getting outscored by 59 runs. Of course, the biggest question all offseason has nothing to do with on-field personnel. Where will they play? After Hurricane Milton tore through Florida and destroyed the roof at Tropicana Field, the Rays (and MLB) don’t yet have an answer. Meanwhile, as always, the Rays have a ton of moving parts, but they’ll need to upgrade an offense that finished next-to-last in the American League in runs scored. They’ll have to do that without Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes, traded away at the deadline, and we’ll see if they pick up Brandon Lowe‘s $10.5 million option (or trade him). Junior Caminero will be a key for the Rays, and they’ll need Yandy Diaz and Josh Lowe to find their 2023 level.
2024 record: 76-86
Final 2024 ranking: 24
Paul Skenes will enter 2025 as the likely Cy Young favorite in the National League following his absurdly good rookie season. Jared Jones also flashed top-of-the-rotation potential, especially in the first half. Top prospect Bubba Chandler could make a similar impact in the rotation for 2025 and Nick Yorke, acquired from the Red Sox, should help out somewhere, whether at second base or in a utility role. The late-season decision to move Oneil Cruz from shortstop to center field makes sense, although it solves one hole while opening another. The Pirates need to figure out what happened to Ke’Bryan Hayes at the plate (.573 OPS) and how to upgrade the bullpen after David Bednar‘s collapse. As always, tightfisted ownership will make it difficult for the Pirates to improve.
2024 record: 80-82
Final 2024 ranking: 19
With records of 81-81, 79-83 and 80-82 the past three seasons, the Giants have been stuck spinning their wheels, so they already made a big move: Farhan Zaidi is out and franchise icon Buster Posey is in as the new president of baseball operations. Posey was involved in the big Matt Chapman extension over the summer, but the Giants are still seeking that franchise, MVP-level type of player to build around. Maybe they make a run at Soto this year, but that seems like a longshot, plus they’ll have to replace Blake Snell (who will opt out of his $30 million player option). Adames makes a lot of sense to pursue to play shortstop, which would allow them to move Tyler Fitzgerald to a more appropriate position.
2024 record: 74-88
Final 2024 ranking: 23
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There are two ways to view the Blue Jays:
They just had a bad season in 2024, and since they basically have everyone back for 2025, there’s a good chance they rebound and find themselves back in the playoffs like in 2022 and 2023.
They’re not very good and are going to be stuck with the same team in 2025.
All their core hitters except George Springer are younger than 30 years old, but the only ones with an OPS+ above league average were Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Spencer Horwitz. The bullpen was a mess (28th in the majors in win probability added) and it’s worrisome that Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios saw big dips in their strikeout rates. This is the final season Guerrero and Bo Bichette are under team control, so Toronto will make a run for it — and will certainly be involved in the Soto competition. But it’s also true the Mark Shapiro/Ross Atkins regime hasn’t figured out how to get the Jays past the wild-card round.
2024 record: 77-85
Final 2024 ranking: 21
The Reds spent some money in free agency last season — which they rarely do — but they didn’t get any better. Nick Martinez was excellent in a swingman role — good enough that he’ll likely exercise his opt-out clause and re-enter free agency. Unfortunately, they will be stuck with Jeimer Candelario. While Elly De La Cruz improved in his sophomore season and should finish in the top 10 of the MVP voting, other young hitters failed to ignite: Spencer Steer drove in 92 runs but hit .225; Noelvi Marte had a .549 OPS; Will Benson didn’t hit after a strong 2023; and Christian Encarnacion-Strand was bad and then injured.
On the pitching side, Hunter Greene finally had his breakout season and could be a Cy Young contender while Rhett Lowder impressed in a late-season call-up. The Reds will need their hitters to improve and their pitchers to stay healthy — but they haven’t had both those things happen together in over a decade (their only playoff appearance since 2013 came in the expanded postseason of 2020).
2024 record: 83-79
Final 2024 ranking: 18
The Cardinals managed to finish 83-79 and they probably overachieved just to do that: They were outscored and finished 12th in the NL in runs and 10th in runs allowed. It was a flawed club. Paul Goldschmidt (now a free agent) and Nolan Arenado weren’t great and their top four starters were 34, 35, 36 and 37 years old (they will have Erick Fedde for all of 2025, although even he will be 32). Key young players like Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker regressed in a big way. The Cardinals are self-admittedly in a transition period, with longtime top baseball executive John Mozeliak — in his final season before handing over the job to Chaim Bloom — saying the focus in 2025 will be on developing young players rather than competing for a title.
2024 record: 71-91
Final 2024 ranking: 26
The Nationals won 71 games, just as they did in 2023, but this team was more pointed to the future with the debuts of James Wood and Dylan Crews in the outfield plus starters Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz on the mound. The Nationals might view themselves as ready to make a playoff push and dip into free agency, but it’s unclear how close they are. Wood has power potential but not yet a swing geared for big home run numbers. Crews struggled in the majors (.218/.288/.353) and his minor league numbers aren’t overly impressive. They’ll also have to decide whether to keep CJ Abrams at shortstop (where he had the worst range in the majors via Statcast) or move him to third base.
2024 record: 69-93
Final 2024 ranking: 25
The unknown for the 2025 team that will simply be known as the A’s or Athletics as it plays in Sacramento while waiting for a ballpark to (maybe) be built in Las Vegas: Will playing in a Triple-A stadium, one it will share with the Giants’ Triple-A team, affect the on-field results? Maybe it’s a situation that will bring the A’s together, sort of a real-life version of “Major League.” Or maybe it leads to the A’s self-destructing back to 100 losses.
Aside from that, the A’s could be an interesting team. Brent Rooker had a 39-homer season with a .927 OPS (his 165 OPS+ was the best by an A’s hitter since Jason Giambi in 2001). You do wonder if the A’s will look to trade him in the offseason. Lawrence Butler raked in the second half (.898 OPS) after tweaking his mechanics. JJ Bleday had a breakout season, and Shea Langeliers hit 29 home runs. However, that group could regress, and the pitching and overall depth is thin.
2024 record: 62-100
Final 2024 ranking: 29
There is a path to improvement for Miami, starting with better health from its rotation. Most notably, Sandy Alcantara will be back after missing 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Eury Perez, the standout rookie from 2023, also missed the season because of Tommy John surgery, while Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett combined for just 19 starts. The Marlins need to hire a manager to replace Skip Schumaker, and the offense needs a lot of work just to get to mediocre. A couple of rookies could help there: Agustin Ramirez, acquired in the Jazz Chisholm Jr. trade, hit .267 with 25 home runs in the minors and could become the regular catcher; and Deyvison De Los Santos, acquired from Arizona for A.J. Puk, led all minor leaguers with 40 home runs, although he needs to improve his strikeout and walk rates.
2024 record: 63-99
Final 2024 ranking: 27
The Angels now have the longest playoff drought in the majors — they last made it in 2014 — and there isn’t much reason to believe in a turnaround for 2025, even if Mike Trout manages to stay healthy. At the least, Angels fans still have hope for Trout. Anthony Rendon? Not at this point. This was a team so lacking in talent it gave Brandon Drury 360 plate appearances despite his .469 OPS — and was batting him cleanup in September. Nonetheless, owner Arte Moreno said after the season the goal is to compete for the postseason in 2025, perhaps trying to copy a Royals-like blueprint to turn things around. I’m skeptical that the Angels can pull it off.
2024 record: 61-101
Final 2024 ranking: 28
From no A-plus to an F-minus-minus-minus-minus … here is our final report card for every squad.
Inertia: A tendency to do nothing or to remain unchanged. Welcome to the 2019-24 Rockies. For example: Bud Black returns for another season as manager, despite six straight losing seasons of not even finishing close to .500. And the past two seasons were even worse than the first four. Is it his fault? No. But would most organizations make a change? Of course. The Rockies rarely make trades or invest in free agents (and when they have, it was with bad deals to Kris Bryant and Ian Desmond). They continue to believe solely in their player development system, and there’s nothing wrong with that — except that they simply haven’t excelled at developing players.
2024 record: 41-121
Final 2024 ranking: 30
After setting the modern record with an embarrassing 121 losses — although, not the worst winning percentage of all time! — the White Sox will inevitably be improved … right? Not necessarily. GM Chris Getz has already stated, “We’re not going to be working heavy in free agency.” Then consider the fact that the 2024 team featured 32 starts from Garrett Crochet, who might be traded this offseason, and 21 from Erick Fedde, who was very good before he was traded in July. Avoiding 100 losses in 2025 would probably be a minor miracle.