NFL Week 9 props that pop: Big week for running backs
Credit to Author: Liz Loza and Daniel Dopp| Date: Sat, 2 Nov 2024 08:28:04 EST
Liz Loza and I were fully in the Halloween spirit with our props last week, delivering more treats than tricks! We nailed five of our six props, with Davante Adams being the lone outlier among the group.
I’ve now come to learn what many lifelong New York Jets fans have known since birth: Never trust the Jets. I’ve learned my lesson and will be staying away the rest of the season.
Jets props notwithstanding, Liz and I are going to do our best to re-create our Week 8 heater as we start getting ready to give thanks for all of the betting goodness on our doorstep here in Week 9.
So, without further ado, let’s dive into Week 9’s props that pop! — Daniel Dopp
All odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Liz Loza breaks down where she would rank Baker Mayfield among fantasy quarterbacks in Week 9 vs. the Chiefs.
Baker Mayfield OVER 34.5 pass attempts (-120), OVER 224.5 passing yards (-155)
Loza: Opposing offenses are throwing on the Bucs at a merciless rate of 37 pass attempts per contest (second most in the NFL). It has been a sound strategy, given that Tampa Bay’s secondary has given up the third-most passing yards in the league (2,191). As a result, Mayfield has been forced to air it out and is averaging 35.5 pass attempts per game (QB2).
There was considerable consternation that Mayfield’s numbers would dip with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin absent from the lineup in Week 8. While the Bucs ultimately fell to the Atlanta Falcons, Mayfield completed 37 of 50 pass attempts for 330 yards and three scores last Sunday. It was Mayfield’s third straight game of 300-plus passing yards.
This go-around he’ll face a Kansas City Chiefs defense that is significantly stingier versus the run than it is against the pass. In fact, despite a proclivity toward blitzing, Kansas City has recorded an underwhelming 15 sacks (tied for the seventh fewest) thus far in 2024. As 8.5-point road underdogs, Mayfield and the Bucs will have to put the ball in the air to stay competitive. As such, I’ll take the over on his passing props in prime time.
Daniel Dopp, Field Yates and Mike Clay discuss why they have Alvin Kamara as RB1 heading for his Week 9 matchup vs. the Panthers.
David Montgomery anytime TD (-115)
Dopp: Let’s update last week’s prop with a few new numbers for this Week 9 matchup against the Green Bay Packers. First, it looks like there could be some weather in this game, and when we have rain, we usually have a limited passing attack, which would lead to more opportunities for Knuckles to do what he does best. Second, after scoring a TD last week, Monty has now scored in six of seven games this season and is third among RBs with seven rushing touchdowns. He’s also dominating at the goal line, with 10 rush attempts resulting in five touchdowns when inside the 5-yard line this season. His 10 attempts rank fourth behind Derrick Henry (12), Jonathan Taylor (11) and Kyren Williams (11). He is locked in as one of the premier goal-line backs running behind this robust Detroit Lions offensive line.
From a defensive perspective, the Packers have given up six touchdowns to RBs so far this year, including one to the aforementioned Williams in Week 5. They’ve been pretty stiff against the run so far, but tough defenses haven’t slowed down Detroit one bit, with the Lions scoring 42, 47, 31 and 52 points in their past four games, respectively. With that kind of offensive firepower, you can expect Monty to get at least a few punches at the goal line.
De’Von Achane OVER 88.5 rushing + receiving yards (-118)
Dopp: The splits with and without Tua Tagovailoa as his starting quarterback are pretty wild. In four games without Tua as the starter, Achane has 189 scrimmage yards and zero TDs. In his three games with Tua, Achane has 412 scrimmage yards and three TDs. As I said, pretty wild!
Achane’s efficiency stems from defenses having to respect the passing game, with the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle stretching the field and keeping safeties honest rather than creeping toward the line and stacking the box. In fact, Achane has at least 100 yards from scrimmage and one touchdown in every game that Tua has started so far this year. We love that, since we’ll have Tua under center again here in Week 9.
But that’s not the only thing we love, as we’re also loving this matchup against the Buffalo Bills, who have allowed the sixth-most yards per rush attempt so far this season (4.8) and permitted four different running backs to hit this mark this year, with three of those backs topping 165 yards from scrimmage. That’s not a typo. The Bills have allowed Derrick Henry (209 yards), Breece Hall (169 yards) and Achane (165 total yards in Week 2) to dominate them in multiple ways this year. And while close doesn’t count in sports betting, Dare Ogunbowale, Travis Etienne Jr. and James Conner were all within 6 yards of this line this season.
None of those backs has the home run ability that Achane does to break off a long one, and that’s part of what we’re hoping for — elite rushing efficiency and passing-game usage, something Achane has had when Tua plays.
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-145), anytime TD (+115)
Loza: When the Patriots manage to stay competitive, Stevenson can produce, as evidenced by his two-touchdown effort versus the Jets in Week 8. The 26-year-old has been admittedly inefficient, averaging fewer than 3.0 yards per carry in back-to-back games. However, when the game script leans in his favor, volume has offset the sins of wasted steps. The Patriots enter the week as 3.5-point road underdogs at Tennessee, suggesting a fairly close game against a 1-6 team that has dropped three in a row.
Additionally, the Titans traded away one of the squad’s most impactful defensive players, sending Ernest Jones to Seattle in exchange for Jerome Baker last week. With Jones out of the lineup, Tennessee was steamrolled by Detroit’s rushing attack, giving up 164 rushing yards and nearly 7.0 YPC. Assuming Stevenson records 14 totes (he’s averaging 14.9 carries and 4.1 YPC on the season), he figures to near 60 rushing yards in an exploitable matchup.
Alvin Kamara OVER 100 rushing + receiving yards and anytime TD (+105)
Dopp: Kamara takes on the Carolina Panthers this week.
I tried to have that be the end of my analysis, but my editors assured me that I needed to be slightly more thorough. I’m not sure why, though. If you’ve watched football, or listened to football, or even thought about football in the slightest, you’ve learned that the Panthers’ defense is not very good. To be honest, it’s worse than not very good.
Five different running backs have topped this line, including Kamara earlier this season. And while it doesn’t count from our perspective, the Panthers also gave up 170 scrimmage yards to the combo of Chase Brown and Zack Moss. Why do I mention that? Because that’s a backfield that’s splitting touches, whereas the Saints rely ONLY on Kamara to move the ball. Kamara has 161 touches, with the next-closest RB totaling 36 touches. It’s clear that this is a one-back room, so Kamara should be in line to receive plenty of touches, with the added excitement of having Derek Carr likely under center again for the New Orleans Saints.
Alvin should rack up the yards in spades and should find pay dirt as well, given the Panthers’ inability to stop RBs. So far this year, Carolina has allowed 15 TDs to the running back position, more than any other team in the NFL.
Liz Loza details Courtland Sutton’s upcoming fantasy matchup vs. the Ravens.
Courtland Sutton OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-115)
Loza: It has been an up-and-down season for Sutton. Right now, however, he’s on an up. Bo Nix‘s play has improved, and the matchups have been plus for the veteran wideout. Sutton has logged at least 50 receiving yards in four of his past six games and is coming off his first 100-yard receiving effort, wherein he converted an impressive eight of 11 looks.
I wouldn’t bet on Sutton posting triple-digit yardage again this Sunday, but with the Denver Broncos chasing points at Baltimore (-9.5), it’s fair to expect a good number of opportunities for Denver’s No. 1 WR. Sutton should convert on those shots as well, given that the Ravens are allowing a 67.2% completion percentage. Furthermore, Baltimore’s secondary has given up the most receiving yards in the league, a whopping 2,493 (an average of 311 per game).