Heisman and CFP odds watch: Cam Ward rising, SEC chaos
Credit to Author: Pamela Maldonado| Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2024 13:51:11 EST
As the 2024 college football season enters its crucial ninth week, the Heisman Trophy race and national championship picture are as unpredictable as ever. Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty continues to defy expectations, racking up yards and touchdowns at a historic pace, while Miami’s Cam Ward has the Hurricanes dreaming of their first national title since 2001. Not to be outdone, Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke has led the Hoosiers to a shocking 7-0 start, catapulting them as potential contenders for the national championship.
Meanwhile, the SEC finds itself in unfamiliar territory, with six teams sporting 6-1 records and no undefeated squads for the first time since 2007. This unprecedented storyline has thrown the conference’s playoff outlook into disarray, with traditional powerhouses like Georgia and Alabama facing stiff competition from resurgent programs such as Texas A&M and LSU.
As we dive into the latest Heisman and national championship odds, one thing is clear: in this expanded 12-team playoff era, every game counts more than ever. From the Mountain West to the Big Ten to the heart of SEC country, the race for college football’s most prestigious awards and ultimate prize is wide open, promising an electrifying second half of the season.
All odds are accurate as of timestamp. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
Last week: +175
What hasn’t been said about Jeanty? His performance this season has been crucial in Boise State’s success, including a top-25 ranking (No. 17). In a Heisman race often dominated by quarterbacks, Jeanty stands out, potentially becoming only the fifth non-quarterback to win the award since 2000. He’s accumulated 1,248 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns in just six games, both leading the nation among running backs. Jeanty is currently on track break Barry Sanders’ single-season FBS rushing record (2, 628) if Boise State plays in the Mountain West championship game and a bowl game.
Jeanty’s combination of exceptional statistics, consistency, and impact on his team’s success make him a strong candidate for the Heisman Trophy. His performance stands out even more in a year where quarterback play has not dominated the Heisman conversation, potentially giving him an edge in the voting.
Last week: +600
Ward is now the co-favorite with Jeanty through six games. He’s been instrumental in revitalizing Miami’s football program, which hasn’t won the ACC since joining the conference in 2004 but is now 7-0. His performance at Miami shows significant improvement from his time at Washington State, demonstrating growth and adaptability.
Through seven games, Ward has thrown for 2,538 yards, 24 touchdowns, leading the country in both categories, throwing for over 300 yards in every game played. In a recent game against Cal, Ward led a comeback victory down 35-10 midway through the third quarter, throwing for 437 yards and two touchdowns, showcasing his ability to perform under pressure.
His big-play ability, consistent high-level performance, and his role in Miami’s resurgence further strengthen his case for college football’s most prestigious individual award.
Last week: +6000
Rourke saw the biggest odds move after Week 8. He has led Indiana to a surprising 7-0 start (4-0 in Big Ten play), a dramatic turnaround from their 3-9 record last season. The Hoosiers are now No. 13 in the AP Top 25 rankings and are first place in the Big Ten.
Through seven games, Rourke has thrown a 74.6% completion rate, behind only Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel to go along with his QBR of 91.8, second best in the nation behind Ward. He has been instrumental in transforming Indiana, which now ranks as the third-best scoring offense in the country and 12th-best passing attack.
His odds were cut in half despite suffering a thumb injury on his throwing hand during the Week 8 game against Nebraska. The injury occurred when his hand hit the helmet of a Cornhuskers defensive player in the second quarter. Rourke has been ruled out indefinitely, with his exact timetable to return unclear. He will miss at least the upcoming game against Washington, where the Hoosiers are currently 6.5-point favorites at home in Week 9.
The nature of the injury makes it difficult to assess his Heisman chances going forward. Although Rourke is not quite in the Heisman conversation from a broader perspective, he did see a significant jump after Week 7.
Entering Week 9, Georgia (+360), Ohio State (+400), and Oregon (+500) are the top three favorites to win the national championship.
Georgia moved up to No. 2 in the rankings after a dominant 30-15 win over previously No. 1 Texas. It was a strong defensive performance, allowing just -0.337 EPA per pass. Georgia now has two wins over top-10 ranked teams in Texas and Clemson. The Buckeyes have been consistently ranked in the top five throughout the season. Loaded with a talented roster with potential NFL first round draft picks, Ohio State has a favorable remaining schedule, including a key matchup against Penn State. The Ducks are the new No. 1 ranked team in both AP and coaches poll with an undefeated 7-0 record after a shutout 35-0 win over Purdue in Week 8, after an impressive victory over Ohio State a couple of weeks ago.
Indiana’s odds to win the national championship improved from +15000 to +7500 after a 7-0 start to the season, only the second time in program history they’ve achieved this start since 1967. What is even more impressive, the Hoosiers have won all seven games by double-digit margins, matching a program record set in 1905-06, scoring 40-plus points in six games straight. They are 4-0 in Big Ten play and No. 13 in the rankings.
While Indiana is still considered a long shot for the national championship, their impressive start has given them a better chance of making the playoffs. The health and return of Rourke could play a big role in their playoff future.
The playoff outlook for the SEC is complex and uncertain, with no team certain to make the college football playoff. There are no undefeated teams remaining in the conference heading into November for the first time since 2007.
Instead, the SEC has six teams with a 6-1 record, indicating a high level of parity within the conference. Texas A&M and LSU are the only teams still unbeaten in conference play, but both lost non-conference games earlier in the season.
If LSU wins, they could jump to the top of the SEC odds board as the only undefeated in conference play team. Texas A&M wins, the Aggies would be in control of their destiny moving forward.
Meanwhile Alabama needs a win to stay alive in the SEC race. Missouri could solidify its status as a conference long shot with an upset win. Alabama needs a win and an LSU loss in Week 9 to stay in contention.
Week 9 has the potential to either solidify the current favorites or throw the entire conference race into chaos. The expanded playoff format keeps more teams in the national title hunt, but conference standings remain key for determining who plays in the SEC Championship game.
Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee and Vanderbilt are a combined 13-16 ATS in SEC conference play. Georgia has the worst SEC record ATS at 1-4, with Alabama the second worst at 1-3, while Vanderbilt has the best at 3-0.
Considering the SEC futures market, in previous articles, we found value in Texas A&M (+120 to make the playoff). At this point, perhaps it’s worth backing underdogs ATS in SEC play and watch these teams cannibalize each other with no clear favorite to pinpoint.