Betting buzz: Kentucky shocks Ole Miss, BYU clinches win total over
Credit to Author: ESPN| Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2024 22:21:25 EST
Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans with a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page | ESPN BET 
The Kentucky Wildcats pulled off a shocking upset of No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday as 15.5-point underdogs. In addition to earning its first win in Oxford since 1978, Kentucky’s victory was the fourth-largest upset this season, behind Northern Illinois (+28.5) over No. 5 Notre Dame, St. Francis (+17.5) over Kent State, and Boston College (+16.5) over No. 10 Florida State. On the other side, Ole Miss dropped from 13-1 to 18-1 to win the national championship at ESPN BET.
Other results:
No. 22 BYU clinched the over on its win total (4.5), improving to 5-0 outright and ATS this season after its win over Baylor. The Cougars have covered each game by at least 9.5 points and improve to 3-0 outright as underdogs this season.
Duke comes back from 20-0 down in the second half to beat rival North Carolina. Running back Star Thomas racked up 166 yards on the ground while Peyton Jones delivered the go-ahead score. Duke was as long as a 15-1 underdog on the live money line at ESPN BET.
Colorado now has two wins as a double-digit underdog under Deion Sanders — the Buffaloes beat TCU as 17-point underdog last season — and are one of five programs with multiple wins as double-digit underdogs since Sanders took over prior to the 2023 season. Georgia Tech, Stanford, Boston College and Northwestern are the other four. The Buffaloes closed as 12.5-point underdogs to UCF before their convincing 48-21 win in Orlando.
Courtesy of ESPN Research. Mackenzie Kramer contributed to this report.
Peyton Jones scores go-ahead TD for Duke
David Purdum: Sportsbooks upgraded the New York Knicks after Friday’s reported blockbuster trade with the Minnesota Timberwolves. The reported trade will see the Knicks acquire Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo.
The Knicks moved from +800 to +700 to win the NBA title at ESPN BET and other sportsbooks, slightly narrowing the gap with the Boston Celtics, who remain the favorites in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics are +150 to win the Eastern Conference, with Knicks next at +295.
The Timberwolves’ odds to win the Western Conference lengthened from +400 to +500, fourth best in the conference. Minnesota is 10-1 to win the NBA title.
Jeff Sherman, veteran NBA oddsmakers for the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, told ESPN he thought the trade would have a “marginal” impact on each team. Sherman bumped up the Knicks’ season-win total from 53.5 to 54.5, and trimmed the Wolves’ win total down 52.5 to 51.5.
David Purdum: The point spread on the Georgia-Alabama game shifted slightly toward the Crimson Tide this week, with some sportsbooks offering the game at pick ’em and one moving Alabama into the role of favorite.
Georgia remained a consensus 1-point favorite Friday afternoon, with sportsbooks, including ESPN BET, reporting balanced betting action on the spread. FanDuel reported that the money bet on the line was divided “50/50” between Georgia and Alabama as of Friday.
BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee, however, said it had been “one-way traffic” on Alabama at that sportsbook, causing it to make the Crimson Tide a 1-point favorite.
The Crimson Tide have been favored in 113 consecutive home games, a streak that dates to a 2007 game against LSU. The Bulldogs have not been an underdog in a game since Sept. 4, 2021, against Clemson.
More on betting Georgia-Alabama from Pamela Maldonado
Staff reports: Penn Entertainment launched its ESPN BET sportsbook in New York this week, joining eight other operators in the largest state betting market in the U.S.
A spokesperson Penn Entertainment confirmed Thursday the soft launch of the ESPN-branded sportsbook and added that an official rollout will occur Friday.
New York becomes the 19th state in which Penn Entertainment operates its ESPN BET sportsbook.
Penn officials had hoped to launch the sportsbook ahead of football season but experienced delays in the licensing process. New York sportsbooks won a net $91.5 million over the first two weeks of the NFL season, according to revenue reports from the state gaming commission.
Doug Greenberg: A pair of spectacular “Monday Night Football” performances in Week 3 finally vaulted two quarterbacks into the favorite spots for their respective awards.
Jayden Daniels had a banner evening in his third career start, completing an astounding 21 of 23 pass attempts for 254 yards and two touchdowns, adding 39 rushing yards and another TD in the Washington Commanders‘ big upset of the Cincinnati Bengals. The electrifying performance had bettors rushing to bet on him to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, with Daniels attracting a leading 40% of bets and 71.3% of handle at ESPN BET since last Thursday.
The impressive display and proceeding betting action moved the LSU and Arizona State product from +300 on Sunday morning to the top of the odds board at +165 immediately following the end of Monday’s game. As of Thursday morning, Daniels sits at +150 to win the rookie honor.
Next on the odds board is New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers (+260), who briefly topped the list on Sunday after a stellar performance in the New York Giants’ own upset of the Cleveland Browns. No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams, who continues to disappoint for the Chicago Bears, has fallen from the first position to fourth at +700.
In the MVP race, Josh Allen (+225) finally cemented his favorite status over Patrick Mahomes (+260) after he tossed four TD passes in the Buffalo Bills’ decimation of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Allen moved into the lead before halftime of Monday night’s contest, per ESPN Research.
Prior to Monday evening, Allen was situated just behind Mahomes at +425 and +225, respectively. Since last Thursday, Allen has taken 51.3% of the wagers and 38.3% of the money at ESPN BET. No other player is particularly close in the odds to the duo of QBs, with C.J. Stroud coming in next at +1300.
And while it’s still very much a long shot, Daniels is making some noise in the MVP market as well, taking 3.1% of the bets (sixth) and handle (10th) since last Thursday. He shows 100-1 odds to win the NFL’s highest individual honor.
Mel Kiper Jr. discusses the new era of college football after UNLV quarterback Matthew Sluka decided to redshirt midseason over NIL disagreements.
David Purdum: Undefeated UNLV (3-0) went from favorite to underdog in Saturday’s game against Fresno State after Rebels starting quarterback Matthew Sluka announced he was leaving the team.
UNLV was as high as a 4.5-point favorite over Fresno State early in the week, before Sluka announced on social media Tuesday night that he would not be playing for the Rebels any more this season due to unfulfilled commitments. Sluka, a senior transfer from Holy Cross, said on social media that he was given “certain representations” when he chose to enroll at UNLV and that they had not been fulfilled.
On Wednesday morning, Fresno State was listed as a 1-point favorite at ESPN BET. The over/under total, which opened around 52.5 at most sportsbooks, was down to 48.5 on Wednesday.
Sluka led the Rebels to their first 3-0 start since 1994, passing for six touchdowns and rushing for another score in his first three games with UNLV. UNLV’s depth chart lists seniors Hajj-Malik Williams and Cameron Friel as backup quarterbacks.
Doug Greenberg: Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris and New York Giants running back Devin Singletary were both stopped just short of the goal late in their respective early Sunday slate games. Those simple actions provided a huge, unlikely win for a large number of under bettors.
The total in Chargers-Steelers closed at 35.5 according to ESPN BET odds, the lowest over/under thus far this NFL season. Pittsburgh drove down the field with a 20-10 lead late in the fourth quarter, only for Los Angeles to stuff them at the one-yard line after a first down, clearing the way for the Steelers to kneel it out for the win.
Chargers-Steelers represented the third-most-bet under of the day at ESPN BET and the second-most-bet at BetMGM, with both books reporting upwards of 66% of wagers pulling for a low-scoring game. It was also ESPN BET’s third-most-bet game of the day by handle overall.
The Giants-Browns under was even more universally bet at the two books, with both reporting it as their most-bet under of the day by tickets; over 80% of wagers and 84% of money were on the under, which closed at 38.5 at ESPN BET.
Like Harris, Singletary also didn’t make it into the end zone to cash the over — but unlike Harris, Singletary intentionally slid at the 1-yard line, allowing New York to kneel out the clock from there. Ecstasy for under backers, agony for over backers.
Doug Greenberg: On Saturday, the James Madison Dukes notched one of their biggest statement wins since joining the FBS in 2022, taking down the North Carolina Tar Heels 70-50 in Chapel Hill. JMU entered the contest as an 11-point underdog, making them just the second team in the last 30 seasons to drop 70 points in a game where they entered as a double-digit dog.
Those 70 points are tied for the most allowed by UNC in a game in school history, while its 50 points scored are tied for the most in a loss in school history; they are also the second team in the AP poll era (since 1936) to score at least 50 points and lose by at least 20.
The high scoring affair blew past the relatively low pregame total of 48.5, per ESPN BET odds, with the 71.5 points over the total representing the largest over cover margin this season and the largest since 2022. It’s the most combined points in a non-overtime game with a pregame total below 50 since 2004.
While the Tar Heels certainly did their part, it was the Dukes leading the way on scoring from the jump: With 53 points in the first half, James Madison became the first road team to go over the total by themselves in the first half since 2006. In general this season, it’s the second game to hit its total in the first half.
ESPN Research contributed reporting for this story.