Fantasy baseball: Blake Snell and other pitchers who need to be rostered
Credit to Author: Tristan H. Cockcroft| Date: Mon, 22 Jul 2024 13:01:42 EST
A wave of prominent pitchers in fantasy baseball have either recently returned from injuries or are on the verge of doing so, giving this week’s crop of recommended pickups a “comeback trail” theme. The seven names we’ll discuss have variable rostership percentages in ESPN leagues, so let’s take a closer look at the second-half potential for each. We’ll go in descending order of their roster rates.
Blake Snell, SP, San Francisco Giants (72.3% rostered): The defending NL Cy Young Award winner, not to mention the name from this list who has been back from the IL for the longest, Snell has seen his roster rate spike 10.8% since his July 9 activation date. Tossing six perfect frames to begin his most recent (July 14) start, and 12 shutout innings in his two turns since activation, has a way of doing that.
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Snell has a history of stringing together exceptional, potentially “top tier in our game” hot streaks, including when he was the No. 2 scoring pitcher over a seven-start span late in 2021 (as well as a top-15 scorer over the final three months of 2022) to go along with last year’s mastery as the No. 3 starter. He’s currently throwing great and needs to be universally rostered once more.
Kodai Senga, SP, New York Mets (63.5%): Last season’s No. 18 scoring starting pitcher, Senga got off to a solid start to his minor league rehabilitation stint that began July 3 with Class A Brooklyn, but struggled in his fourth outing on Saturday for Triple-A Syracuse, allowing five runs in his three innings of work. Although he struck out 29.1% of the batters he faced during his U.S. debut in 2023, he has fanned only seven out of 48 hitters (14.6%) in his three starts for Syracuse.
Senga’s raw potential when healthy makes him well worth the pickup, but you should probably keep him stashed on your bench for evaluation initially. He’s likely to make his 2024 debut on Friday against the Atlanta Braves, which is an obvious matchup to avoid.
Devin Williams, RP, Milwaukee Brewers (40.8%): One of the game’s most talented relief pitchers — he scored the fifth-most fantasy points from 2020-23 at the position — Williams has garnered promising reports from his two minor league rehab appearances thus far and might be back with his big league club in the coming days. He’s likely to quickly recapture his closer role, despite Trevor Megill‘s recent success, and falls into Snell’s category of being deserving of universal rostership. If you’re hurting for saves (or if you roster Megill), scoop Williams up quickly.
Bryan Woo, SP, Seattle Mariners (39.7%): A pitcher who has been excellent around his multiple injury absences this season, Woo returned to action on July 12 and followed up that outing with a 16-point effort against the Houston Astros on Sunday. His average fastball velocity has been consistently in the 95-mph range, his sinker continues to get good marks, and he has walked only 2.6% of the hitters he has faced. Woo offers fantasy managers a lot of second-half upside.
Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (30.5%): One of fantasy baseball’s all-time greats, Kershaw isn’t nearly the pitcher he was a decade ago, but he was still the No. 9 scorer at his position over the first three months of 2023 and continues to make the most of his four-seamer/slider/curveball repertoire. In defense of his making a meaningful second-half impact, over his two rehab starts for Triple-A Oklahoma City (among three total in the minors), he generated 42% and 25% whiff rates with his slider and curveball, even if his average fastball velocity was a mere 89.8 mph.
The Dodgers’ tendency to give starters five days of rest while reining in their pitch counts might be a bigger hindrance to Kershaw’s rest-of-year value than his skills themselves, but he still might well be a top-25 positional option from August forward.
Robbie Ray, SP, Giants (10.0%): One of the most widely available pitchers on this list, Ray has made 10 minor league rehab appearances, with his most recent two being the most brilliant of the bunch (10 1/3 shutout innings and 16 K’s combined). For those wondering how his underlying skills have looked, in his three Statcast-tracked Triple-A outings, he averaged 93.6 mph with his four-seam fastball and generated a 44% whiff rate with his slider — both of which are at least within range of his 2021 Cy Young Award campaign’s numbers (94.8, 45.5%).
Ray is projected to make his 2024 debut on Wednesday, but the road matchup against the Dodgers puts him in “stash-and-watch” territory. He’s definitely a good add for those in need of strikeout help.
Jeffrey Springs, SP, Tampa Bay Rays (9.2%): Another pitcher who is both widely available as well as has taken the lengthy route to his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Springs’ rehab stint with Triple-A Durham hasn’t exactly been eye-popping. He has managed a 4.32 ERA and a 25.5% K rate in his eight starts there (among 11 total in the minors), and has averaged 90.6 mph with his four-seam fastball along with a 37% whiff rate for his changeup, numbers that are a decent step beneath those from his breakthrough 2022.
Springs is set to make at least one more start for Durham, after which point he’ll probably join the Rays rotation and be a “pitcher to monitor” rather than an instant add in mixed leagues. He’ll at least get the pitching-friendly confines of Tropicana Field to help him, but it would be good to see him have at least an elite outing or two from before considering him to be a universal fantasy pickup.
Lawrence Butler, OF, Oakland Athletics (13.7% rostered): More of a rotisserie-angled fantasy hitter than one for points-based leagues (in large part because of his 20/20 power/speed potential but his lack of any other elite tool), Butler has picked up his power pace in July and even soared into the team’s leadoff role to begin the season’s second half. He’s a .385/.439/.885 hitter with seven home runs, three of them in the Athletics’ first-half finale, and two stolen bases over 15 games for the month. Most notably, Butler has 11.7% Barrel and 50% hard-hit rates for the season. He should continue to carve out regular at-bats for this rebuilding franchise.
Ozzie Albies (93.7% rostered); Taylor Ward (48.5%); Alex Verdugo (51.5%); Nestor Cortes (53.2%); Yoshinobu Yamamoto (95.6%).