How should Arteta shape his title-chasing squad?
Credit to Author: Mark Ogden, Gabriele Marcotti| Date: Sun, 2 Jun 2024 18:12:48 EST
Gab Marcotti and Mark Ogden debate what Arsenal should do with their cover options for Martin Odegaard. (1:59)
The focus for Arsenal this offseason will be finding improvements in the squad which should finally bridge the small gap between themselves and Premier League champions Manchester City.
There’s one obvious priority here, and we’d expect the club to deal with it pretty quickly: manager Mikel Arteta has to extend his contract, which only has one year left to run. There’s no indication that he and the club view things differently and the way they’ve worked in the past year or so has been very much aligned, so you expect this to be straightforward. Should things drag on, however, it could have a negative effect on their summer activity, for the simple reason that clubs are loathe to commit to a project if the coach isn’t in place long term. Again, it’s an unlikely outcome, but until he commits beyond 2025, the possibility of the club pulling in a different direction remains.
This is a young team which was largely injury free the past two seasons. Rather than having glaring holes to fill, it’s more about upgrading what is there already and adding depth. Having spent very big last summer on Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and Jurriën Timber, and having extended a number of contracts, Arsenal are unlikely to spend anywhere near last season’s £140 million. Especially since some £27m has already been committed to make the move for goalkeeper David Raya permanent. That said, there is room to maneuver while staying within the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules.
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Editor’s note: This is the second in this year’s series of Keep or Dump over the coming weeks, looking at which players to keep, extend and move on from for all the top clubs in the Premier League and Europe. You can read Man City’s feature here.
Remember: This is our assessment of what we think the club should do, player for player, with the squad at their disposal. It’s not what we think they will actually do, though sometimes the two will align. That said, we take into account what we know of the club, coaching staff and player preferences, as well as their financial situation and any other factor that we think will impact personnel moves.
Where we disagree, or where we think our rationale is worth explaining, we’ve noted below.
Ogden: He’s technically on loan from Brentford, but Arsenal have an obligation to buy that would also give him a one-year extension. I haven’t been totally convinced by him — I think he got away with a few things last year — but he’s clearly Arteta’s first choice. So, you would need to make his deal permanent and give him at least another season, though 2027.
Verdict: Secure permanently and extend his contract
Marcotti: He hardly played after September of last year, making just two appearances in the league — both against Brentford when Raya was ineligible against his parent club. This is a guy with four years as a Premier League starter under his belt, two of them at Arsenal. You’d imagine he wants to play regularly and at his age, you can get a decent fee for him.
Ogden: I agree you should get a good fee for him, though it’s tricky with keepers, because there are only so many starting jobs. Plus, he’ll be on good wages and other talented reserve keepers, like Caoimhín Kelleher (Liverpool) and Stefan Ortega (Man City), could be on the market too.
Verdict: Move on
Marcotti: He’s been there for six years, and other than five games on loan at Reading two seasons back and a League Cup game in 2022, he’s never played first-team football. And yet he has 29 caps for Estonia so presumably somebody rates him. There’s no point in him being the third keeper. Extend his deal, send him on loan somewhere where he can play and figure out if he has a future at the club.
Verdict: Extend and loan out
Verdict: Release
Verdict: Keep
Ogden: Keep him, but you have to be on the lookout for somebody better. He can be rash and overly physical in how he plays; going forward, Arsenal will need to iron out those flaws.
Verdict: Keep
Marcotti: Missed nearly all of last season through injury, so he’s a classic “like a new signing.”
Verdict: Keep
Marcotti: Arteta moved to a more defensive left-back profile this year and you can’t consider him a starter anymore, especially with Timber fit. He’s on big money, I think you have to listen to offers for him and try to shift him … unless you think he can reinvent himself as a central midfielder, which is where he played earlier in his career.
Ogden: He was a good signing, served a purpose and made a difference — but it’s time to let him go. They have others who fit Arteta’s system better and you can raise some funds.
Verdict: Listen to offers/move on
Verdict: Keep
Verdict: Keep
Verdict: Keep
Verdict: Release
Marcotti: I think this is your last chance to get something back for him, since I doubt he’ll want to extend after two years on loan. Injuries slowed him down at Forest, but he was solid at Marseille the year before. With a year left, maybe you get £5m to £8m?
Verdict: Move on
Ogden: He brought character and personality when he arrived from Celtic, but time has moved on and Arteta clearly wants something different from his left-back. Missed two months through injury and only made 13 starts at Real Sociedad in the league. He’ll want to play, so I think you take what you can get for him, even if it’s as little as £10m to £12m.
Verdict: Move on
Verdict: Keep
Marcotti: He missed a big chunk of the season and is on big wages. A lot depends on what kind of market there is for him, what he wants to do, and whether you bring in a replacement. If he ends up staying and shares time with Jorginho, that’s not a bad thing, though they’ll want to bring in a long-term successor either this summer or next. And if he’s fit and happy, then give him a new deal in January. Either way, there’s no need to act now.
Verdict: Listen to offers, do not extend
Marcotti: You don’t want him playing every game, and he probably doesn’t want to play every game, but in certain situations his skill set is essential for this team. And it’s hard to find a replacement that gives you both his passing and the defending and physicality that Partey provides. So, a bit like his teammate, keep him around for now, but be on the lookout for an alternative.
Verdict: Keep, do not extend
Verdict: Release
Verdict: Keep
Verdict: Keep
Marcotti: On the one hand, he has started just three league games in the past two years. It’s pretty clear Arteta doesn’t see him as a priority. On the other hand, he’s also had some injuries and the guy he’d be replacing is Ødegaard, who is extremely durable and never gets hurt. I think you have to see what market there is for him and maybe you can raise some £20m to £25m. Bear in mind though that if he goes, he’ll need to be replaced. Ødegaard is durable, but not unbreakable.
Ogden: At 23, he’s somebody who will either sink without a trace or develop into a really good player. But if he doesn’t get on the pitch, he’s not going to develop, and you need to raise money. I’d sit him down, explain this and look to move him on.
Verdict: Listen to offers/move on
Marcotti: Yes, he’s had injuries, but it’s just five starts in two years for him and he hasn’t pulled up trees when he has played. I’m not comfortable with him as Ødegaard’s backup. Best to loan him somewhere where he can grow and develop. He’s still locked into a long-term deal anyway.
Verdict: Loan out
Marcotti: Unless you get another defensive midfielder, you bring him back and extend his deal, if only to preserve his transfer value. I thought he did well at Luton, he works hard and can be a decent backup for both Rice and whichever one out of Partey and Jorginho starts.
Verdict: Keep and extend
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Marcotti: He was less effective this season than last year, but it’s the classic case where it doesn’t make sense to listen to offers after a down year. He’s only 22, best to give him a chance to bounce back and continue to grow. Plus, with Leandro Trossard and Gabriel Jesus, Arsenal have other options who offer plenty of insurance in that role.
Verdict: Keep
Ogden: He’s done really well, though I wouldn’t extend his contract just yet. See how things are in January.
Verdict: Keep, evaluate in January
Ogden: He’s absolutely crucial for Arsenal’s growth on and off the pitch. His contract situation is fine for now but if trophies don’t come along, he will attract interest from clubs who can offer both money and success. It’s vital that Arsenal stay ahead of the curve and ensure his contract always reflects his importance.
Verdict: Keep
Ogden: There’s no reason to keep him. They have plenty of other players who can play in his position and do it better than he does.
Verdict: Move on
Marcotti: He’s had his critics, but he gives you plenty of effort and works hard. I agree with Pep Guardiola, though: He’s far more viable as a wide player than as a starting centre-forward, but he’s a good option to have.
Verdict: Keep
Ogden: You can get a fee for him and clear the path for another centre-forward. He works hard and people fall for that sort of thing, thinking he’s another Ian Wright. Which he’s not, given he’s never been a starter in his career and has never scored more than five league goals in a season.
Marcotti: I’m fine with listening to offers, but I genuinely don’t think he’s going to want to leave. Also, while he rarely starts and doesn’t score much, Arteta uses him a lot as a substitute. He appeared in 57 Premier League games the past two years, which is mind-blowing really. I’m also not sure that securing a proper centre-forward is as much of a priority as some make it.
Verdict: Move/Listen to offers
Marcotti: He’s been out on loan virtually since he arrived and that’s fine — let him grow. At least thus far, he’s getting starts at Fluminense.
Verdict: Loan out
Conventional wisdom is that the single biggest priority for Arsenal is bringing in a prolific, big-name striker capable of scoring 25 to 30 goals a year. We’d push back against that a little, not least because Arsenal were the second-highest scoring team in the Premier League in each of the past two seasons. You don’t necessarily need a top goal scorer, if the goals are spread throughout the side, as Manchester City proved in the years before they picked up Erling Haaland.
Havertz has been used in different roles and may not be a traditional centre-forward to some, but in the latter part of the season became Arteta’s favoured striking option and ended up with 13 league goals. Given he only spent about 40% of his minutes up front, that’s not a bad return. So, rather than spending big on a first-rate striker, we’d look for someone who can offer an alternative to Havertz, but also be fine coming off the bench or, in some situations, playing with Havertz.
The biggest issue is the succession plan in central midfield. Arsenal are most effective when Rice isn’t on his own in front of the back four but rather free to attack and get forward. That means securing a deep-lying midfielder. The good news is that Arsenal don’t need to panic buy here, because some combination of Partey and Jorginho can see them through another season effectively. If the right opportunity comes along, great, if not, wait until next summer.
Shifting Ramsdale (and the savings on wages) should pay for Raya’s move becoming permanent, though they’ll need to invest in a reserve keeper. They could probably do with some more defensive depth and potentially an upgrade on Gabriel, whom Ogden finds “a bit erratic.”
If they can shift Tierney, Tavares and Nelson, they can raise some funds to put toward the forward line. There will be key calls to make on Zinchenko, Smith Rowe and Nketiah too. At the right price — and with the right replacement in the case of the latter two — we agree they should be moved on. But only in the right circumstances. There aren’t too many pricey contract extensions to worry about right now (though there will be in a year or two), but the single biggest one — like we said — will be Arteta himself.