Can Chet Holmgren be the fantasy basketball Rookie of the Year?
Credit to Author: Andre Snellings| Date: Tue, 17 Oct 2023 11:21:41 EST
The 2023 NBA draft class featured Victor Wembanyama, the most hyped rookie prospect since LeBron James, as well as two “would be considered for top pick any other year” picks in Brandon Miller and Scoot Henderson.
So where does Chet Holmgren, the No. 2 overall pick in 2022 who missed all of last season, fit in among his new classmates? What should we expect his rookie numbers to look like? And where should he be drafted in fantasy basketball leagues?
Let’s start with his team. Holmgren projects to be the starting center for a Thunder team that likes to play small and fast. Last season, the Thunder ranked sixth in the NBA in Pace (101.1 possessions per game) in a lineup with four starters traditionally listed as either guards (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey) or wings (6-foot-6 Jalen Williams, 6-foot-3 Luguentz Dort). The Thunder played center by committee last season, with the most starts (36) coming from 6-foot-10 rookie Jaylin Williams who played only 18.7 MPG.
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The moral to that story is the Thunder had a relative hole at center that Holmgren should fill nicely, and he should be able to get as many minutes and produce as much as he is physically capable. He doesn’t have to necessarily challenge an established vet for the role. And since he will be playing with four perimeter players, Holmgren will be heavily relied upon to be the defensive anchor and primary rebounder on the team.
Two seasons ago, in his freshman campaign at Gonzaga, then 19-year old Holmgren averaged 9.9 RPG and 3.7 BPG in 26.9 MPG. College numbers don’t necessarily translate faithfully, but it is worth noting that Holmgren’s defensive numbers in college compared well with those of last season’s top rookie big man, Walker Kessler. Kessler averaged 8.1 RPG and 4.6 BPG in 25.6 MPG his last season at Auburn, then went on to post 8.4 RPG and 2.3 BPG in 23.0 MPG as a rookie for the Jazz.
After missing the entire 2022-23 NBA season with a foot injury, Holmgren returned to play in the NBA Summer League this year and looked good, averaging 9.8 RPG with 3.7 BPG. In two NBA preseason games thus far, Holmgren has grabbed 13 rebounds and blocked four shots in 37 total minutes over two games.
It is encouraging that at each step of the process, Holmgren’s impressive rebound and shot blocking stats have been holding steady. It suggests that, like Kessler, Holmgren’s numbers may translate well to the NBA stage.
While not quite as long as Wembanyama, Holmgren is 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-6 wingspan. His length should make him a menace defensively at the NBA level, but when he was drafted questions abounded about whether he was too thin at then-195 pounds.
This is where Holmgren’s year away from basketball may have been of benefit. He has reportedly gained weight, up to a listed 207 pounds, and more importantly has had a full year of eating and weight training with an NBA staff.
While still thin, he no longer appears to be as frail and, in today’s NBA where post-ups and banging in the paint aren’t as prevalent as they were in previous generations, Holmgren should be able to come in and contribute right away.
On offense, Holmgren should fit well in the kind of pace-and-space offense that the Thunder run. Holmgren uses his length and a soft shooting touch to score efficiently in the paint. At Gonzaga, he shot 60.7% from the field even though more than a third of his shots were 3-pointers. And this is another way he fits with the Thunder: the team ranked 12th in the NBA in 3PA per game last season even though leading scorer Gilgeous-Alexander shoots only 2.5 3PG.
SGA and Giddey are excellent at breaking down opposing defenses and setting up teammates for open looks, particularly their bigs. Center-by-committee Jaylin Williams (2.3 3PA in 18.7 MPG, Aleksej Pokusevski (3.1 3PA in 20.6 MPG) and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (2.6 3PA in 18.9 MPG) all were active 3-point shooters last season. Holmgren, who shot 39.0% from behind the college arc, should get plenty of open looks from downtown as a rookie.
Holmgren is also comfortable facing up and working off the dribble, has decent court vision and a solid mid-range jumper. He should be able to score at all three levels, and while he doesn’t project to a high-volume scorer he does look like he could average in the mid-teens on solid percentages with about a 3-pointer per game.
Put it together, and I project Holmgren as a top-75 player right out the gate with good achievable upside once he fully settles in. He should challenge Wembanyama for the best defensive and rebounding numbers among this season’s rookies, and on offense he may contribute more from behind the arc than Wembanyama.
Holmgren is third among rookies in my preseason fantasy points projections, trailing Wembanyama and Portland guard Scoot Henderson, but he should be an impact player right away. And, with the Thunder having a better and more offense-friendly supporting cast in addition to his extra year of maturity, Holmgren has a reasonable chance to end up as the most productive rookie in this class.
He currently has a seventh-round ADP of 65.6, and I wouldn’t hesitate to draft Holmgren in that range in fantasy basketball drafts. It’s possible we look back and consider that strong value for a legitimate NBA Rookie of the Year front-runner.