Companies’ cost inflation is slowing but shoppers may wait for lower prices
LONDON/PARIS -The world’s top consumer goods companies, making everything from instant noodles to soap and ice cream, are paying less for their raw materials and energy, but ittake time beforesee significantlyprice tags for household goods.
Rising expenses for everything from sunfoil to milk and grain have hit the packaged goods industry hard over the past two years, prompting companies to hikeand helping fuel a-of-living crisis in many parts of the world.
rose during the COVID-19 pandemic and was exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent energyto record highs last year. Energys have since dropped, however, while globalfor some commodities are rising more slowly.
Companies like Nestle, Procter & Gamble, Reckitt Benckiser and Danone continued to raisesharply in the first quarter even though inputs are easing.
of goodswill be “significantly”this year – Reckitt expects 5 percent to 9 percent versus 18 percent last year, the company’s finance chief Jeff Carr said on a call on Wednesday to discuss earnings results. Reckitt shares were down 3 percent in London.
Carr said that while salarys have increased, commodities are a “mixed bag” and freights have declined. First quarter price/mix, a basket of variables the company uses to help determine whatto charge, rose 12.4 percent while sales volumes declined 4.5 percent.
“Our pricing obviously will be measured in 2023, where we did most of our heavy lifting or pricing in 2022,” Carr said.
Danone CFO Juergen Esser told a post-earnings call with analysts that while labors, liquid milk and sugarare up, some others are down, so “we expectto decrease through the year”.
The maker of Activia yoghurt and Evian water raised first-quarterby 10.3 percent and volume/mix rose 0.2 percent.
It is unclear when companiesstart passing on some of theirs to customers. On Tuesday, Associated British Foods said it does not expect many more price increases in the second half of this year, ass including wheat, vegetable oils, freight and energy start to fall.
UK grocery inflation eases slightly to 17.3% in April -Kantar
Procter & Gamble Co, which makes Luvs diapers, and rival Kimberly-Clark Corp, the manufacturer of Huggies, both saw their sales volumes decline in recent quarters as they pushed through higher. Both P&G’s and Kimberly-Clark’s volumes declined less than the prior quarter. Executives for both companies flagged that pulp, a key ingredient in diapers and toilet paper, has fallen in price.
‘Not deflation’
Companies including Unilever, which reports earnings on Thursday, acknowledged in February that the industry was past “peak, but not yet past peak pricing”.
Several firms have since made near-record price hikes: beverage giant Coca-Cola Co said average sellingrose by 11 percent in the first quarter, while rival PepsiCo Inc said itsgained 16 percent.
Many in the industry bought ingredients far in advance, whenwere higher, so it will take time for that to trickle through to the supermarket shelves.
“We tend to buy nine to 12 months out on commodities,” Pepsico chief financial officer Hugh Johnston said in an interview with Reuters.
“Anytime there is an increase in commodity, it hits us a little bit later, and when there’s a decrease in commodity, we would we feel the benefit of that decrease a little bit later as well.”
The European Central Bank is concerned that if foodkeeps accelerating, it will have an outsized impact on consumers’perception, potentially changing spending behavior, pressuring wage demands and impacting interest rates.
P&G customers, particularly in the United States, continued to show little resistance during the quarter to 10 percent price increases, helping the Tide detergent maker boost margins even as overall volumes fell 3 percent.
Similarly, Nestle increased itsby 9.8 percent during the quarter and sales volumes fell 0.5 percent. CEO Mark Schneider said the European consumer had been more “resilient” than expected.
When a company can raiseto a large degree “it highlights the value of their brands, the value of their pricing power” said Neil Denman, a fund manager at Reckitt and Unilever investor Sarasin & Partners.
“I think that’s what we’re going to see with companies through this year: which companies really have the ability to passthrough in a difficult consumer environment?”
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