Betting tips for Premier League games
Janusz Michallik reacts to Real Madrid’s comfortable win over Celtic to top Group F in the Champions League. (0:55)
Soccer continues this week with Premier League games and more.
So which team should you be betting and what are the big storylines? Our analysts are here to offer all the input you need.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Paul Carr: Arsenal are legit, ranking a shade behind Manchester City in most underlying numbers this season. Chelsea have not been legit, sitting 13th in expected-goal difference this season (-3.1) and conceding the third-best shots of any Premier League team. With all of Chelsea’s injury issues, I lean Arsenal in this one (+180), though I’d rather have a price closer to +200.
Daniel Thomas: I can’t wait for this game. Arsenal have been so impressive so far this season and will go into this tie rightly full of confidence. Chelsea suffered their first defeat under Graham Potter against Brighton where they were woeful, especially at the back. I expect Arsenal to exploit those frailties this weekend and I think the Gunners will get the win.
Dalen Cuff: I’m on Arsenal to win too. They’re the better squad and know what their manager wants of them individually and collectively. Can’t say the same for Chelsea, as Potter still tinkers with tactics/personnel.
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Carr: With both teams ranking in the top four in total goals per game this season, scoring is obviously expected at the Etihad, as the price on over 3.5 goals suggests (-150). I’d rather play both teams to score (-115), since Fulham aren’t a pack-it-in type of team, even on the road. They’ve had at least eight shots and 0.7 expected goals in all six away games this season, scoring against both Arsenal and Tottenham. City will score, as they’ve done in every home game this season, and I think Fulham nicks one too.
Thomas: City to thrash Fulham. Erling Haaland or not, expect a big win.
Cuff: Paul laid out the relevant stats. I also expect goals and like both teams to score but also adding City to win on that for more value at +130.
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Carr: Even after Liverpool’s 2-0 win over Napoli, I can’t take the Reds here. Tuesday’s game was at Anfield, and Liverpool remains winless in away league games this season (two draws, three losses), including a stunning loss at Nottingham Forest two weeks ago. It’s not as though Liverpool have been unlucky, not with an expected goal difference of -2.2 in those five away games. Tottenham have been good at White Hart Lane this season, winning five of six league games, but haven’t faced any of the traditional top six teams there yet. Son Heung-Min‘s absence makes the draw (+265) even more likely, and that’s my play.
Thomas: Depends which Spurs turns up. They keep forgetting to play in the first half, which could have cost them dearly in recent matches. Liverpool have lost to Forest and Leeds going into this match, but I just have the feeling the Reds can take all three points from North London.
Cuff: I honestly don’t know what to make of this game. Anytime I’ve expected Liverpool to perform they haven’t, and when betting against they look like the team we thought they were preseason. No Son Heung-Min hurts Spurs no doubt and I think a draw is likely, but Liverpool’s away form is stuck in my head. Good value for Spurs at home on the two-way market (+130 Spurs Draw No Bet).
Thomas: There may be some value on Gerard Pique to score on his final home game ever for Barca. Maybe there will be a ceremonial pen that he’d be allowed to take before going off into the Catalan sunset.
Carr: As usual, I’m going with both teams to score in a Leicester City away game (-130), this one at Everton on Saturday. The Foxes somehow didn’t concede a goal in their 4-0 win at Wolves two weeks ago, despite allowing 21 shots and 2.1 expected goals. Now they face an Everton side that seems to have a good defense, having allowed 12 goals this season, fourth-fewest in the league. But the Toffees have given up 19.6 non-penalty expected goals, second-most in the league. With two defenses that aren’t very good, I expect both teams to get at least one goal here.