Pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Opening Day

April 6, 2022 admin

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades dialy to to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

by Mike Sheets

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The New York Mets kick things off against the Washington Nationals and Patrick Corbin, who was arguably the worst pitcher in baseball last year, stumbling to a 5.82 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP across 31 starts. The left-hander was also highly ineffective against right-handed batters, surrendering a .302/.359/.562 line and a .387 wOBA. This sets things up well for a pair of lesser-rostered righties – J.D. Davis (1% rostered in ESPN leagues) and James McCann (3% rostered) – to do some damage with the platoon advantage.

With so many aces on the slate, there aren’t many widely available hurlers, but Madison Bumgarner (11%), who has shown an uptick in velocity this spring, deserves at least some consideration as a streaming option. The San Diego Padres were below-average against lefties in 2021, and their lineup looks a little soft on paper with Fernando Tatis Jr. sidelined. Chase Field also suppresses homers.

The Cleveland Guardians lineup isn’t overpowering, but it still provides a cheap, under-the-radar stacking opportunity against Zack Greinke and his pitch-to-contact approach. Bobby Bradley (2%) provides the power, Andres Gimenez (3%) brings the speed, and Steven Kwan (1%) offers a little bit of everything after having hit .328 with 12 dingers and six steals in 296 at-bats between Double- and Triple-A in 2021.

On a day that’s filled with staff aces, JT Brubaker of the Pittsburgh Pirates stands out as someone we want to attack. The right-hander sported a 5.36 ERA last season, including an ugly 7.57 mark in the second half. Brubaker’s biggest problem was his inability to keep the ball in the park, as his 2.03 HR/9 would have ranked worst in baseball if he had enough innings to qualify. Harrison Bader (25%), Yadier Molina (21%), Paul DeJong (3%), and perhaps even 42-year-old Albert Pujols (3%) should take advantage of one of Thursday’s most favorable matchups.

Rowdy Tellez (3%) may be part of a first-base platoon this season, but he’ll be in the heart of the Milwaukee Brewers lineup on Thursday with right-hander Kyle Hendricks taking the hill for the Chicago Cubs, giving him appeal as a streamer or DFS option. The lefty slugger consistently makes hard contact, and Hendricks looks like one of the more exploitable hurlers on the slate. After being drilled for a 4.77 ERA over 32 starts last season, the veteran’s spring performance (9.53 ERA in 11 1/3 IP) doesn’t offer much hope for a turnaround.

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Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 48%) at Hendricks

Amed Rosario (CLE, SS — 47%) at Greinke

David Peralta (ARI, LF — 21%) vs. Yu Darvish

Myles Straw (CLE, CF — 35%) at Greinke

Tommy Pham (CIN, LF — 46%) at Max Fried

Austin Nola (SD, C — 4%) at Bumgarner

Daniel Vogelbach (PIT, 1B — 0%) at Adam Wainwright

Wil Myers (SD, RF — 11%) at Bumgarner

Brandon Nimmo (NYM, CF — 42%) at Corbin

Ian Happ (CHC, LF — 61%) vs. Corbin Burnes

Bobby Witt Jr. (KC, SS — 91%) vs. Shane Bieber

Willson Contreras (CHC, C — 93%) vs. Burnes