ANALYSIS: Premier's cabinet shuffle dampens election expectations
Credit to Author: Rob Shaw| Date: Thu, 23 Jan 2020 02:06:17 +0000
VICTORIA — Premier John Horgan cooled speculation of an early election with a cabinet shuffle on Wednesday that failed to promote his strongest backbenchers from key ridings and instead made small-scale changes that signal he’s staying on course for the spring.
Horgan said publicly last month he intended to ask ministers if they were running in the next election and then refresh his cabinet in early 2020.
That led to expectations MLAs Bowinn Ma and Ravi Kahlon would get called to the premier’s front bench. Both are up-and-coming stars in the party and their ridings (North Vancouver-Lonsdale and Delta North) are key battlegrounds that the NDP won away from the Liberals in the last election.
Arming those MLAs with powerful cabinet posts would boost their chances of re-election. And it would keep the cabinet in gender balance, a key goal of the premier.
That’s not what happened.
No ministers announced they were stepping aside and not running again on Wednesday.
Instead, Horgan asked Burnaby-Deer Lake MLA Anne Kang to become minister of citizens’ services, replacing Jinny Sims who resigned in October after it was disclosed she’s under police investigation.
Anne Kang, MLA | Burnaby – Deer Lake
Choosing Kang over Kahlon or Ma was a head-scratching move. Most observers had expected Bob D’Eith from Maple Ridge-Mission or Sheila Malcolmson from Nanaimo, to get a crack at cabinet before the relatively low-profile Kang.
The only other change was Energy Minister Michelle Mungall and Jobs, Trade and Technology Minister Bruce Ralston swapping jobs.
Mungall has been a stable hand on energy, despite the NDP’s decisions on Site C, natural gas fracking and liquefied natural gas development being extremely unpopular within parts of the party base.
Her new portfolio was renamed the Ministry of Jobs, Economic Development and Competitiveness, and she’ll be a key figure in implementing a new provincewide economic plan written by deputy minister Don Wright and obtained by Postmedia News earlier this month.
Rather than an election, the small-scale changes appear to signal stability for the NDP government for at least this spring.
The wild card remains independent MLA Andrew Weaver, who could decide suddenly to vacate his Oak Bay-Gordon Head riding because of his wife’s health problems, triggering a byelection that could deadlock the legislature.
But Weaver and Horgan are friends, and Weaver has publicly and privately reassured the premier that he still has his support. If Horgan had any inking that was set to change in the immediate future, we’d have seen an entirely different cabinet announced on Wednesday.
The shuffle also seemed to have little to do with the performances of Horgan’s ministers. Were that the case, the top name on the list to get moved would likely have been Forest Minister Doug Donaldson, who is facing widespread criticism from key forest sector stakeholders over how he’s responded to the continuing crisis in the sector.
The premier left the beleaguered Donaldson alone in his portfolio.
Horgan has kept virtually the same cabinet in place since he was sworn into office two years, six months and five days ago.
Perhaps he is the first premier in B.C. history to perfectly match all his MLAs to the right ministerial portfolios on his first day in office, and never need to reconsider his choices. More likely, he’s worried any larger shuffle would be portrayed by critics as a sign of weakness and give his political enemies ammunition to question his judgment.
Whatever the case, Horgan clearly intends to charge through early 2020 with the same team he started with. For better, or for worse.