College Football Playoff tracker: How each conference title game affects the field
GRAPEVINE, Texas — Oregon athletic director Rob Mullens, who is also the chairman of the College Football Playoff selection committee, is here at the Gaylord Texan Resort, not the Pac-12 championship game, where his two-loss Ducks have a chance to win the league — and simultaneously eliminate it from the CFP with a win over No. 5 Utah.
Selection committee member Joe Castiglione, who is the athletic director at Oklahoma, is also here instead of watching his Sooners in the Big 12 conference championship game in nearby Arlington, Texas. All 13 committee members checked in by 4 p.m. CT on Friday to meet, have dinner and then watch the Pac-12 title game together.
While the Pac-12 and Big 12 have generated the most discussion this week because they are jockeying for the fourth spot, every Power 5 championship game will influence the committee’s final votes on Selection Day.
The playoff tracker is your one-stop shop for how each result will impact the committee’s decision, and it will be updated as soon as each game ends:
Can Oklahoma finally win with style? Since losing at K-State on Oct. 26, Oklahoma has won its past four games by an average of 6.5 points. By comparison, during that same four-game span in November, Utah has won by 27.2 points per game.
It’s the classic debate between eye test (Utah) and résumé (Oklahoma). How the Sooners look in this game will matter, especially since the last time they faced Baylor, they needed a historic, 25-point comeback to win.
If Baylor wins, it will have to overcome a weak nonconference schedule that included Stephen F. Austin, UTSA and Rice, along with needing double overtime to beat Texas Tech and triple overtime to beat TCU.
The winner of this game will be considered by the committee for the fourth spot if No. 2 LSU knocks out No. 4 Georgia. An Oklahoma win gives the Sooners a 53% chance to make the CFP, according to the Allstate Player Predictor, which would be the fourth-best percentage.
Who will take the lead for a New Year’s Six bowl? The highest-ranked Group of 5 champion is guaranteed a spot in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, and the AAC has been leading the race all season. Memphis took the lead after its 34-24 win over Cincinnati on Nov. 29 to end the regular season, but can the Tigers turn around and do it again a week later? ESPN’s Football Power Index says yes, giving Memphis a 69.5% chance to win.
Can LSU’s defense rival that of Ohio State to unseat the Buckeyes for the top spot? One of the key factors separating the top two teams in the country has been Ohio State’s defense, which has a slight edge over LSU’s in the eyes of the committee.
If the Tigers win convincingly against Georgia and Ohio State struggles against Wisconsin, it’s possible LSU can jump the Buckeyes on Selection Day. If the Bulldogs pull off the upset, though, the one-loss SEC champs would likely finish in the top four with LSU — eliminating both the champions of both the Big 12 and Pac-12 in the process. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, LSU has an 81.3% chance to make the CFP even with a loss. That would be the easiest scenario for the committee, as the top four would likely be No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Clemson, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 LSU.
Can Clemson avoid what would be the biggest upset in the Power 5 title games? It should, because the Tigers are averaging 50.4 points per game since Oct. 12 and facing a three-loss team making its first appearance in the ACC championship game. If Clemson doesn’t? There’s a good chance the defending national champs would be left out. It would be hard for the selection committee to deem Clemson “unequivocally” one of the four best teams in the country with the No. 85 strength of schedule.
Can Ohio State hang on to the top spot? Even if the Buckeyes lose, assuming it’s a close game, they’re probably still in, but if Ohio State and LSU both win, how they look in the process could determine who finishes No. 1. They have comparable résumés and have been extremely close in the eyes of the committee. Heading into Saturday, LSU was No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and Ohio State was No. 2.