Calvin White: Minority government far better than a majority for Liberals
Credit to Author: Hardip Johal| Date: Mon, 02 Dec 2019 02:00:50 +0000
So, new federal cabinet chosen, new government ready to go amidst all the accompanying commentary about whose interests will be served and whose won’t. Looking a bit closer, it seems clear that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau totally lucked out on election night. Being put in a minority situation with the NDP, Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois all having the potential to bring them down in a confidence vote, the Liberals were given the absolute best scenario for power. This outcome was far better for them than would have been the case had they won a majority.
All the talk about the opposition parties being in position to now hold the Liberals to account or to broker for their own pet projects is off base. The opposition parties will try to claim successes in that regard, but they are at the mercy of Trudeau, not the other way around.
Think about it: None of the parties wants another election any time soon. All would jeopardize what they have by forcing an election, and the Liberals know it. But more important is how the policies of each party handcuff them in whatever they support or oppose in parliament.
The Conservatives have to vote with the Liberals on any initiative that benefits business — such as pipelines. To vote against would be a vote against their own base and gift the Liberals a poisoned arrow for the next election. Thus, every corporate or capitalist friendly move Trudeau wants to make will have Conservative support. And there’s nothing the other parties can do about it.
Conversely, every environmental or socialist improvement that the Liberals want passed is guaranteed to be supported by the NDP and Greens. They could not do otherwise. Thus, for instance, any form of pharmacare, tuition support, or good old carbon taxes all get a big yea from the left-leaners. How could they vote against any form of what they campaigned for no matter how watered down without being skewered by the Liberals for betraying their cause?
So, where does this leave Trudeau? With a better hand than he would have had if he had been returned to power with a majority. Now, he can claim how effective he is at “working together” with the other parties, and assert how he has “listened” to Canadians and learned his lessons. The Jody Wilson-Raybould / SNC-Lavalin and blackface shame and the India faux pas will be relegated to history as the improved statesman basks in a minority government lasting full term due to his conciliatory, respectful leadership.
If the Liberals had a majority, then every move could be attacked until the next election campaign, which would continue into blame, attack and finger-pointing at failings. Instead, with a minority, Trudeau can rightfully declare how all the parties were part of every move, one way or another. That he brought them together — driving straight down the middle in compromises that benefit “all Canadians!” The opposition won’t be able to say straight-faced that they weren’t a part of the results.
Surely, the thinkers in the Liberal party have realized their position of strength. They need bow to no one other than to give the illusion that they are listening. Jagmeet Singh will only get from the Liberals what they choose to give because they don’t need to make the slightest concession. Similarly, Andrew Scheer can fume and accost as he wishes, but when he has the chance to join the left and vote against a pipeline or other pro-industry endeavour and thus defeat the Liberals, he cannot do it.
The polarization of the pro-environment vs pro-economy camps and the left-right divide have played perfectly into Trudeau’s hands as the centrist, safe choice. So, barring any significant scandals or Trudeau disaster, governing Canada is the Liberals to do for the next eight years, no matter who the other parties elect as leaders.
Calvin White is a B.C. essayist and is the author of Letters from the Land of Fear.