Fantasy intel for all 32 NFL teams ahead of Week 12
Field Yates and Matthew Berry agree that Jonathan Williams has a chance to put up great fantasy numbers on Thursday based on his performance on Sunday and the injuries to Marlon Mack and Jordan Wilkins. (2:13)
The Fantasy 32 analyzes the NFL from a fantasy perspective, with at least one mention of each of the league’s 32 teams. Though efficiency will be discussed plenty, the column will lean heavily on usage data, as volume is king (by far) in fantasy football. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions for the upcoming week and beyond. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
Throughout the below team-by-team rundowns, I’ll be referencing “OFP” and “OTD.” OFP stands for opportunity-adjusted fantasy points. Imagine a league in which players are created equal. OFP is a statistic that weighs every pass/carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player’s opportunity to score fantasy points, or his “expected” fantasy point total. For example, if a player has an OFP of 14.5, it means that a league-average player who saw the same workload in the same location on the field would have scored 14.5 fantasy points. FORP is the difference between a player’s actual fantasy point total and his OFP. OTD works the same way, except instead of fantasy points, it’s touchdowns. Volume is king in fantasy football, so this is not information you want to overlook.
That said, here is the post-Week 11 OFP Leaderboard:
Next, here are the players who exceeded their OFP by the largest margin this past week and are thus candidates to see a dip in fantasy production moving forward, assuming they see a similar workload:
And these are the players who fell short of their OFP by the largest margin last week, and thus you shouldn’t be too quick to overreact to their performance when making lineup, trade or waiver decisions:
It appears that Kenyan Drake has taken over as the lead back in Arizona. After playing 74% of the snaps during his first two games with the team, Drake was on the field for a season-high 90% of the team’s offensive plays against the 49ers on Sunday. Drake carried the ball 16 times for 67 yards and totaled 13 yards on seven targets. No other Arizona back touched the football, with David Johnson limited to seven snaps. Johnson opened the season with five top-12 fantasy outings in his first six games, but hasn’t finished a week better than 65th since. Perhaps Johnson will play a role following the team’s Week 12 bye, but he can’t be trusted right now. Chase Edmonds is also due back from injury following the bye. Drake, meanwhile, has posted five consecutive top-23 fantasy weeks and is in the RB2 mix.
With Austin Hooper sidelined, Luke Stocker played 68% of the snaps and Jaeden Graham 52% during Sunday’s win in Carolina. Stocker was targeted on one of his eight pass routes and Graham posted a 2-23-0 receiving line on a pair of targets while running 19 routes. Graham is clearly the preferred pass-catching tight end, but the committee approach is unlikely to yield much fantasy production. This situation can be ignored in most formats, but those desperate in in two-TE leagues can take a shot on Graham.
Gus Edwards ripped off a 63-yard touchdown and posted a strong 8-112-1 rushing line against Houston on Sunday. Edwards had been unlucky in the scoring department earlier this season, but that has leveled out a bit in recent weeks (2.9 OTD, two touchdowns). Operating as a situational player. Edwards has cleared eight carries in a game once (Week 1) and has gone over 56 rushing yards once (Sunday) this season. He also has been a nonfactor as a receiver, having failed to see a target during his past five games. Edwards would be a must-add in the event of a Mark Ingram injury, but has no standalone value.
Dawson Knox scored a 23-yard touchdown on one of his two catches Sunday. Knox now has a catch of at least 20 yards in five different games this season. Despite the occasional big plays, Knox remains well off the fantasy radar. The rookie has yet to clear six targets in a game and has gone over 32 yards once during his past six outings. He’s finished two weeks better than 16th among tight ends in fantasy points. Knox, who has two touchdowns this season, is a terrific dynasty stash, but isn’t producing enough for TE1 consideration just yet.
Kyle Allen has attempted 93 passes over the past two weeks. He has a pair of 300-yard games to show, but also has only one touchdown and five interceptions. Allen has now failed to clear two touchdowns in each of his past seven games, falling short of two in five of those outings. Allen has attempted a significant number of low-percentage throws (his 60% expected completion rate is second lowest among 34 qualified quarterbacks), which has led to a weak 6.8 yards per attempt (seventh worst). Allen has managed one weekly fantasy finish better than 14th and it came in his season debut in Week 3. Allen is well off the fantasy radar.
Taylor Gabriel matched a career high with 14 targets against the Rams on Sunday. Gabriel didn’t take much advantage with a 7-57-0 receiving line, though he has now produced at least 9.3 fantasy points in four consecutive games. Gabriel has been on the field for 82% of Chicago’s pass plays and is handling 5.8 targets per game (the latter is down slightly from 6.0 last season). Gabriel’s role is enough to keep him in the flex discussion most weeks, but Chicago’s struggling offense limits his upside quite a bit. He’s not a player to prioritize on waivers.
Tyler Eifert seemed to be on the verge of a resurgence back in Week 8 when he played a season-high 71% of the snaps and posted a 6-74-0 receiving line on nine targets. So much for that. Eifert has played 32% of the snaps in Ryan Finley‘s two starts, posting a 5-41-1 line on eight targets. Eifert continues to play fewer snaps than C.J. Uzomah and has one top-10 fantasy week to his name this season. He is no more than a shaky TE2 play.
Nick Chubb has played 77% of the offensive snaps and Kareem Hunt 56% in two games since Hunt returned from suspension. Chubb has carried the ball 47 times, run 35 routes and handled five targets during the span. That’s compared to 10 carries, 35 routes and 17 targets for Hunt. Chubb hasn’t posted a top-12 fantasy week since Week 6, but his heavy rushing volume and an “easy” remaining schedule keep him in the RB1 mix. Hunt has posted 12-plus fantasy points in both games and is playing enough to warrant flex consideration. Hunt is also one of the most-valuable handcuffs in fantasy.
Michael Gallup put up a dominant 9-148-0 receiving line on a team-high 13 targets in Detroit on Sunday. Granted Gallup benefited from Darius Slay shadowing a limited Amari Cooper, but the second-year receiver has now been targeted 10-plus times in back-to-back games and has seven or more targets in six of eight games this season. Gallup has also produced at least one touchdown or 68 yards in six games. Gallup sits 14th at the position in fantasy points per game, though he should be considered a WR3 over the next month against what is a tough schedule (Patriots, Bills, Bears, Rams).
Tim Patrick returned from injured reserve Sunday and immediately slotted in as Denver’s No. 2 receiver. Despite actually being carted to the locker room early in the game, Patrick played 71% of the snaps and was targeted eight times. He responded with a 4-77-0 receiving line. Patrick flashed at times with a 23-315-1 receiving line last season and will be behind only Courtland Sutton (nine targets Sunday) and Noah Fant (11) for the rest of the season. Patrick has some appeal in 16-team leagues and should be monitored on 12-teamers.
The Lions threw us another curveball at the running back position Sunday. Detroit activated 2018 seventh-round pick Bo Scarbrough over the weekend and proceeded to both start him and allow him a position-high 47% snap share. The former Cowboys draft pick posted a 14-55-1 rushing line, but wasn’t targeted in the game. J.D. McKissic (six touches on 23% of the snaps) and Ty Johnson (three on 32%) were mixed in off the bench. The Lions have no one coming back from injury, so it’s possible Scarbrough will remain the lead back for the rest of the season. The 6-foot-1, 235-pound Alabama product projects as a between-the-tackles plodder who will offer the bare minimum as a receiver (think Sony Michel, but in a worse offense). Scarbrough figures to cap out as a flex in PPR leagues, but is worth a waiver claim.
Aaron Jones entered Green Bay’s Week 11 bye with 14 touchdowns, which matched Christian McCaffrey for most in the league. Jones’ 7.1 OTD suggests that he’s headed for some regression to the mean down the stretch. In fact, the 6.9 gap between Jones’ actual and expected touchdown totals is largest in the NFL. Green Bay has scored 57% of its offensive touchdowns through the air (eighth lowest), but its expected rate based on playcalling is 68% (10th highest). Expect more of Jones’ scores to go to Aaron Rodgers moving forward, though Green Bay’s lead back still ranks seventh in OTD, so he’ll still have plenty of opportunities to find pay dirt.
Carlos Hyde ripped off a 41-yard touchdown Sunday and has now found the end zone four times this season. Hyde was held to a season-low nine carries in a blowout loss in Baltimore, but he has now reached 58 rushing yards in eight of 10 games this season. Hyde also has carried the ball at least 19 times during four of his past six games. Despite the heavy rushing volume, Hyde sits 29th among running backs in fantasy points. The problem is his nonexistent role as a receiver. Hyde has gone four consecutive games without a catch and has a total receiving line of 6-22-0 on 11 targets this season. Hyde is a flex option who can be upgraded a bit in non-PPR.
Marlon Mack went down with a broken hand after a strong performance against the Jaguars on Sunday. In his place (and with Jordan Wilkins out with an ankle injury), Jonathan Williams exploded for 147 yards on 14 touches while playing 43% of the snaps. Nyheim Hines (35% of snaps) put up 35 yards and a rushing touchdown on six touches. Mack is out for at least Thursday’s game in Houston, so Wilkins (if he returns), Williams and Hines figure to work in a committee. Wilkins is averaging 5.8 yards per carry since entering the NFL, which trails only Raheem Mostert (6.0) among 82 backs with at least 65 carries during the span. Williams’ strong Week 11 suggests he’s worth an add on waivers, but he won’t be an appealing flex if Wilkins, who had been operating as the No. 3 back, is in the lineup. Hines’ role as the primary receiving back doesn’t figure to change. This situation will require monitoring throughout the week.
Nick Foles was back in action Sunday, making his first appearance since suffering a collarbone injury in Week 1. Playing from behind, the Jaguars called 49 passes and nine runs in the game, which helped Foles to 296 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The biggest takeaway from the game may have been Foles’ affinity for targeting DJ Chark. Chark caught eight of 15 targets for 104 yards and both of the touchdowns. Chark now sits fifth among wide receivers in fantasy points and, though he’s over his head in the scoring department (8 TD, 4.9 OTD), his 10 end zone targets and 8.4 targets per game keep him in the WR1 mix.
Reaction coming Tuesday.
Reaction coming Tuesday.
Is Todd Gurley II back? It seemed like it Sunday night. Gurley was on the field for 77% of the Rams’ offensive snaps and carried the ball 25 times (his most since Week 8 of the 2018 season). He produced 133 yards and yet another touchdown on 28 touches. Gurley’s 20 fantasy points marked his second-highest total of the season and helped him to his fifth top-15 fantasy week of the season. Gurley’s efficiency and target volume have plummeted this season, but he’s still seventh among running backs with eight touchdowns (6.0 OTD). Gurley is a fringe top-15 play going forward.
Mike Gesicki was expected to play an expanded role in the passing game following Preston Williams’ season-ending injury two weeks ago. In some ways, he has (exactly six targets in three consecutive games), but he simply hasn’t been a fantasy factor. Gesicki had 95 yards in Week 9, but has otherwise put up yardage totals of 31, 11, 9, 51, 41, 10, 28 and 18 this season, the latter of which came on Sunday. Gesicki has yet to score a touchdown and has cleared 8.1 fantasy points only once. He’s a shaky TE2.
Irv Smith Jr. played a career-high 83% of the offensive snaps Sunday. The rookie found the end zone for the first time in his career, though he was limited to three targets and 20 yards in the comeback win over Denver. Though Smith has essentially worked as Minnesota’s slot receiver during Adam Thielen‘s absence, the second-round pick has failed to clear 34 yards during his past four games. Minnesota will enjoy its bye in Week 12 and Thielen is expected back in Week 13. Smith should only be on rosters in dynasty leagues.
N’Keal Harry was activated from injured reserve and made his NFL debut against the Eagles on Sunday. The 2019 first-round pick was on the field for 41% of the snaps, which easily trailed Julian Edelman (89%), but was in the range of Mohamed Sanu (55%), Phillip Dorsett (48%) and Jakobi Meyers (25%). Harry definitely got a boost in playing time from Dorsett leaving injured in the second half, but he was already in the rotation in the first quarter. Harry, who posted a 3-18-0 receiving line on four targets, only figures to play a larger role as the season progresses, which could make this receiver group a bit of a headache. Following Sanu’s dip in usage, Edelman is the only Patriots wideout who should be locked into Week 12 lineups.
Drew Brees threw for 228 yards and three touchdowns in Tampa Bay on Sunday. Brees has now played four complete games this season and, powered by 1,258 passing yards and eight touchdowns, sits fifth among quarterbacks in fantasy points during those weeks. Brees has been more conservative (his 6.1 aDOT is down from 7.2 in 2018), which has led to a lower YPA (8.2 to 7.6), but he has completed a career-high and league-best 75% of his passes. Especially with the Saints calling pass more often than in recent seasons, Brees remains in the weekly QB1 discussion.
Saquon Barkley has been held to three touchdowns this season, but the second-year back has been a bit unlucky. Barkley’s 4.8 OTD is 11th-highest in the league during the seven weeks he was active. Barkley has underwhelmed based on his ADP (first overall), but he’s nonetheless managed three top-nine fantasy weeks, as well as a pair of additional top-17 weeks. Ignoring Week 3 when he went down with an injury, Barkley has been on the field for 84% of New York’s offensive snaps and is handling 85% of the carries and 17% of the targets. Barkley remains a strong weekly RB1.
Ryan Griffin caught all five of his targets for a career-high 109 yards and one touchdown against Washington on Sunday. With Chris Herndon on injured reserve, Griffin played 85% of the snaps and has now posted receiving lines of 4-66-2, 6-50-0 and 5-109-1 during his past three full games. That after totaling 46 yards and one touchdown during his first six games with the Jets. Griffin’s full-time role and connection with Sam Darnold is enough to lock him into the top 20, but there’s not quite enough upside for TE1 consideration most weeks. That said, he’s a decent streaming option against Oakland in Week 12.
Foster Moreau found the end zone again on Sunday and now has four touchdowns in 10 games this season. Despite the occasional scores, the rookie tight end is well off the fantasy radar. Moreau hasn’t cleared 10 receiving yards in a game since Week 7 and has failed to catch a single pass in two games this season, including Week 10. Moreau is a part-time player (47% snap share) behind Darren Waller and should be in lineups only if you’re in a major pinch in a deep two-tight-end league.
Jordan Howard was sidelined Sunday, which opened the door for Miles Sanders to play a career-high 85% of the offensive snaps. The heavy usage didn’t lead to much fantasy success against New England’s terrific defense, as Sanders totaled 47 yards on 13 touches. Boston Scott carried the ball on seven of his 12 snaps and newcomer Jay Ajayi didn’t play a snap. The Eagles will be back at home in Week 12 to face a less-intimidating Seattle defense, so if Howard remains out, Sanders’ heavy usage would make him a fine RB2 option.
After averaging 3.8 targets per game during his first five full games this season, Vance McDonald has handled seven targets each of the past three weeks. He played 92% of the snaps and ran a route on 89% of pass plays during the span. Despite the lofty playing time, McDonald has yet to clear 40 yards in a game this season. McDonald has three touchdowns to his name, but two were in one game back in Week 2. McDonald is one of many players whose fantasy value was derailed by Ben Roethlisberger’s injury. He’s not a top-10 fantasy tight end option.
Stepping in once again for an injured George Kittle, Ross Dwelley was on the field for 89% of the snaps and scored a pair of touchdowns on five targets against Arizona on Sunday. Dwelley played 91% of the snaps while racking up seven targets in place of Kittle in Week 10. Despite the strong usage, Dwelley has yet to clear 29 receiving yards in a single game in his career. That includes a 14-yard effort on Sunday. If Kittle remains out in Week 12, Dwelley should be considered a TE2 play against Green Bay.
DK Metcalf entered Seattle’s Week 11 bye tied for first in the NFL with 14 end zone targets. Metcalf has five touchdowns to his name, which aligns well with his 5.5 OTD. The rookie played 71 of a possible 73 snaps in Week 10 and seems unlikely to lose much (if any) work to newcomer Josh Gordon, who played 27 snaps in his Seattle debut. Metcalf entered the bye as a top-20 fantasy receiver and will be a fine WR3 play going forward. Metcalf has the look of a potential star, especially with Russell Wilson throwing him passes for the long term.
Cameron Brate was targeted 14 times Sunday, which was four more than his previous career high, which he set in Week 3 back in 2016. Brate caught 10 of the 14 targets for 73 yards in the loss to New Orleans. Brate was on the field for 81% of Tampa Bay’s snaps in the second half after O.J. Howard was essentially benched. Howard, who dropped a pass that resulted in an interception in the first half, played 44% of the snaps in the first half and 8% in the second half. Neither Tampa Bay tight end can be trusted right now, but Brate is worth a flier if you’re shaky at the position. He’ll join the TE1 discussion if we get confirmation that he has actually passed Howard on the depth chart.
Derrick Henry entered the Week 11 bye as fantasy’s No. 5 scoring running back. The big man had posted five top-nine fantasy weeks, as well as three additional top-25 weeks. A closer look at Henry’s workload shows a strong possibility of incoming touchdown regression to the mean. Henry has scored 10 touchdowns, which is nearly double his 4.8 OTD. Henry has scored on all five of his carries from the opponent’s 1-yard line and has zero additional carries inside the 5. Henry is one of the game’s most-effective rushers and is averaging 18.7 carries per game, but a limited role as a receiver (1.9 targets per game) and a slower scoring pace lock him in as a fringe top-10 weekly play.
Derrius Guice returned from injured reserve Sunday and was on the field for 30% of the offensive snaps. That’s compared to 26% for Adrian Peterson and 44% for Wendell Smallwood. Guice was the most productive of the three backs, racking up 69 yards and one touchdown on eight touches. Guice’s strong performance figures to lead to additional playing time, but Washington seems committed to a committee that could eventually also include Chris Thompson (out with a toe injury). The Redskins rank dead last in offensive touchdowns (13) this season, which also doesn’t help Guice’s cause. The second-year back belongs on your bench.