Vaughn Palmer: Second half of term proving more bumpy for the B.C. NDP
Credit to Author: Stephen Snelgrove| Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2019 02:21:02 +0000
VICTORIA — With two years to go before the next scheduled provincial election, the New Democrats have lately been hitting bigger bumps than they experienced in the first half of their term.
The first change of fortune came in early September, with an update from Finance Minister Carole James on the first quarter of the budget year.
James scaled back economic growth projections for 2019 and 2020 and raided the contingency fund of $300 million to keep the budget in balance.
She then directed ministries to rein in discretionary spending by the equivalent $300 million. Her way of hedging against further discouraging results on the economic front, the troubled forest sector being the most likely source.
The spending restraint was on display later in September, when Forests Minister Doug Donaldson promised $69 million over two years to support displaced forest workers. The full amount was reallocated from existing programs, most notably by draining $25 million from a fund to promote rural economic diversification.
When rural communities protested, Premier John Horgan brushed them off with an insult.
“When I was a kid I always wanted everything right now, too, and I ended up turning out OK, even though I didn’t get everything I wanted at the time I wanted it,” he told reporters.
The government has also been getting heat for hefty increases in auto insurance rates for young and inexperienced drivers and newcomers to B.C.
B.C. Forests Minister Doug Donaldson admitted in early October that not a penny of the $69 million support package for displaced forest workers is new money.
The horror stories have been mounting since ICBC’s new rate structure kicked in on Sept 1. But last week brought a second rate shock as David Eby, the cabinet minister for ICBC, ruled out relief for those facing increases in the thousands of dollars.
“It’s important that the insurance premiums that people pay reflect their actual driving performance and their risk on B.C. roads,” he told Rob Shaw of The Vancouver Sun. “That’s a core principle of insurance. And it’s something that ICBC has got away from, because it’s politically easier to avoid that question.”
Politically, he blames the previous B.C. Liberal government for leaving ICBC in a financial mess — a partisan accusation that has the added advantage of being true.
But the New Democrats have struggled to meet their own financial targets for the auto insurance giant, missing by hundreds of millions of dollars in the first year.
ICBC is budgeted to come within $50 million of breaking even this year, but that target remains in doubt. So there’s no financial leeway to back off from the higher rates.
“So yes, young drivers — not just young drivers, inexperienced drivers who are predominantly young but not exclusively — will be paying higher rates,” says Eby. “And there’s really no way around that as far as I can see.”
Nor is there any way around the continued horror stories, given staggered renewal dates and Eby’s refusal to blink.
When the legislature resumed last week, Eby, wearing his hat as attorney-general, also had to run interference for a former cabinet colleague now under investigation.
Jinny Sims in 2017.
Jinny Sims resigned as minister of citizens’ services on the eve of the session, following appointment of a special prosecutor to assist police in an investigation of unspecified allegations against her.
Sims said she doesn’t know what it is all about. Premier John Horgan says he doesn’t know either but is confident she will be cleared.
The B.C. Liberals believe it is connected to material from a whistleblower that they passed along to police last spring.
Most days it falls to Eby to explain how he doesn’t know either, shouldn’t know, and can’t possibly comment because there’s a continuing police investigation.
When Attorney-General Wally Oppal was handling similar duties for the B.C. Liberals, he earned the nickname “Stonewally.”
No nickname for Eby. But some days he may wish they’d just ask him about ICBC rates. (On second thought — scratch that).
The first week of the fall session also provided the first indication that any of this was getting to Premier Horgan.
It happened when reporters asked him about news that his chief of staff, Geoff Meggs, shredded a document from Speaker Darryl Plecas containing allegations against now departed clerk, Craig James.
Horgan bristled several times in the scrum, accusing reporters of rumour-mongering and trying to “make a mountain out of a molehill.” I hadn’t seen the “angry John” side of Horgan since his Opposition days.
But to his credit, the next day he described the set-to with reporters as “a learning experience” and conceded he should have kept his cool.
Having listened to both Horgan and Meggs on the allegations, I would say the chief of staff handled the matter with more aplomb than the boss.
Economy slipping. Forestry in crisis. Punishing rate hikes from ICBC. An ex-minister under a cloud. The premier showing the stresses of office.
Welcome to the second half of the mandate, New Democrats.
The week did end with a sign of continued confidence in the Horgan government, when Standard & Poor’s reaffirmed B.C. at the highest credit rating — AAA — and a stable economic outlook.
But the agency added a warning that “we could lower the rating by one notch” if New Democrats allow the province to “slip into a deficit on a sustained basis” or increase debt “above current expected levels.”
In short, so far so good. But as with the political situation, it could go either way depending how the New Democrats proceed from here.
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