PH pork output to drop in 2020 – Fitch Solutions
Credit to Author: EIREENE JAIREE GOMEZ| Date: Wed, 02 Oct 2019 16:25:27 +0000
PORK production in the Philippines is forecast to fall by 1.5 percent to 1.615 million metric tons in 2020 on account of the outbreak of African swine fever (ASF), which has hit more than a dozen areas in the country so far, according to Fitch Solutions.
In its latest industry report, the Fitch Group’s research unit said “[f]armers are unlikely to begin rebuilding herds… while the epidemic is still ongoing, and even when monthly outbreaks subside, it can take up to a year for new animals to be ready for slaughter.”
“Given that over 60 percent of the country’s pig population are…in backyard farms, where ASF has a tendency to spread quickly (as demonstrated by China), we believe there is a strong possibility that the disease could continue to spread over the coming quarters,” it added.
The projected decrease is the first in four years made on Philippine pork output, which is seen to recover and grow at 3 percent annually from 2021 to 2023, according to Fitch Solutions.
Production reached 1.640 MMT last year, a 2.4-percent increase from 1.602 MMT in 2017, data from Fitch Solutions showed.
With pork production in Asia expected to decline and Chinese meat imports seen to increase, the Fitch unit said “other disease-stricken Asian countries may have trouble importing meat as international prices have risen,” which could result in lower pork consumption.
Fitch Solutions projects pork consumption in the Philippines to drop by 1 percent year-on-year; China, 2 percent; and Vietnam, 5 percent.
Despite the bleak outlook, industry players in the country remain optimistic that they could meet local demand, citing a production increase in the first three quarters of the year.
Rosendo So, president of the Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura (Sinag), told The Manila Times that there had been a 4-percent growth in output from January to June, and an 8-percent expansion from July to August.
According to him, the 20,000 pigs that were culled since the first confirmed ASF case in August represented only 0.15 percent of the 12.72-million heads of pigs in the country.
For his part, Sinag Executive Director Jayson Cainglet said “[w]e have pork stock until March, so there is no need to import.”
“We see lower pork consumption of 5-6 percent for this year, so more surplus stocks are expected and more reason not to import,” he added.
“We are not bothered by the projections. We are concerned about the entry of ASF-laced pork imports.”
Seventeen areas are now reportedly hit by ASF, but only 14 areas have been confirmed by the Agriculture department. They include villages in Pangasinan, Rizal and Bulacan provinces.