Will the Conservatives rediscover their past dominance in B.C.?
Credit to Author: Gordon Hoekstra| Date: Tue, 17 Sep 2019 23:31:30 +0000
Conservative parties have found fertile federal-election ground in British Columbia for nearly half a century.
They have dominated the B.C. Interior and Fraser Valley, and picked up seats in Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island, winning anywhere from 57 per cent to 79 per cent of the province’s ridings from 1974 to 2011.
Only in 1988 and 2015 did they fail to top the seat count in B.C. during that period.
In 1988, the NDP won the majority of seats and in 2015, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals had a major breakthrough with the Conservatives grabbing less than a quarter of the seats, just 10 ridings to the 21 they won in 2011 and the 22 in both 2008 and 2004.
In 2015, the Liberals grabbed 17 seats, making inroads into the Fraser Valley and the B.C. Interior. The previous election, the Liberals had won just two seats in B.C.
But Trudeau’s brand has taken some hits, from his handling of the SNC-Lavalin affair to the climate change and energy file, say political observers.
The Conservative’s are hoping to capitalize on that in the Oct. 21 federal election, arguing that Trudeau has not delivered on promises. And they’ll appeal to family’s pocket books, promising items such as tax cuts and boutique tax credits for kids’ sports and arts activities.
It’s a strategy employed in previous successful Conservative campaigns under Stephen Harper.
Conservative leader Andrew Scheer on the federal election campaign trail with home owners Reed and Gretchen in White Rock, BC., September 15, 2019.
The website 338Canada.com — which makes projections based on polling, electoral history and demographic data — this week pegged the Conservatives to win 23 seats to 10 for the Liberals, five for the NDP and four for the Greens who are leading popular vote tallies on Vancouver Island.
Political scientist David Moscrop, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Ottawa’s department of communication, said the Liberals are going to have a hard time holding onto their gains.
That’s particularly so if the Liberals can’t maintain their youth and indigenous support, said Moscrop, a former researcher at Simon Fraser University.
The Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion will also divide people, he said, with voters who support the project not necessarily giving the Trudeau government credit for buying the project to ensure it is built.
“That benefits the Conservatives, particularly in the B.C. Interior and Fraser Valley where they lost seats to the Liberals,” said Moscrop.
Pollster Mario Canseco noted the only other time the Liberals made a major breakthrough in B.C. was in 1968 with Pierre Trudeau when they failed to win a single seat in B.C.
“What we saw (in the last election) was a rarity,” said Canseco, president of Vancouver-based Research Co.
In trying to recapture lost seats, the Conservatives hope to gain support in ridings where the Liberal’s margin of victory was small.
In Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam, the loss was by less than 2,000 votes, or 3.3 per cent of the popular vote.
Ron MacKinnon in 2015
Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam Conservative candidate Nicholas Insley faces Liberal incumbent Ron McKinnon, NDP candidate Christina Gower and Green Party candidate Brad Nickason, among others.
Insley, who worked in Ottawa for the Harper Conservative government before taking up a position with Seaspan shipping, says the No. 1 issue they are campaigning on is affordability.
Conservative leader Andrew Scheer has already used a Surrey home as a backdrop to make a major policy announcement in B.C. on Day 5, promising a tax cut for the lowest federal income bracket up to $47,630.
The Conservatives say it will save families $850 a year.
“In a lot of cases, you see Canadians report that they don’t have a lot of money at the end of each month,” said Insley, noting how expensive to live in Coquitlam and Port Coquitlam, like many other communities in the Lower Mainland.
“Having a few extra bucks in your pocket is something which is very helpful,” he said.
In the riding of Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo in the B.C. Interior, Conservative incumbent Kathy McLeod says key issues are a desire by a majority of residents to see the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion go ahead expeditiously and to see support from the federal government on the forestry crisis that has resulted in permanent sawmill closures and thousands of lost jobs.
“The prime minister (Liberal leader Justin Trudeau) was in this riding a couple of days ago and did not even acknowledge the crisis. And that is very hurtful,” said McLeod, who faces competition from Terry Lake, the high-profile Liberal candidate.
Lake is a former Kamloops mayor and B.C. Liberal cabinet minister.