Real or Not? Nationals, Indians providing intrigue in MLB division races
Jose Ramirez rips a solo dinger to left-center field in the 14th inning to give Cleveland a 4-3 lead over Kansas City. (0:20)
A few weeks ago, it looked as if the second half of the baseball season would consist of one exciting division race and five that could resemble Secretariat at the Belmont. At the beginning of July, the leads in five divisions were 5½, 6½, 7, 8 and 12 games. Only the NL Central was tight and some of the second-place teams appeared headed in the wrong direction — the Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers and Philadelphia Phillies were all starting to slump.
Nothing against a hard-fought wild-card race, but they don’t write books about wild-card races. So thank you to the Cleveland Indians and Washington Nationals for helping make the AL Central and NL East races a lot more interesting. Both teams once faced double-digit deficits behind their division leaders, but the baseball gods have a way of reminding us that 162 games is a long season. What’s remarkable is how quickly they climbed back into the playoff chase. Let’s see how that happened.
The Minnesota Twins bounced back from a couple of tough losses to beat the Chicago White Sox 10-3 behind Nelson Cruz‘s three home runs — all off of Lucas Giolito — the first three-homer game of Cruz’s career. He had two chances to hit a fourth but struck out in the sixth and flew out to right field in the ninth. Here’s his first one, a mammoth blast to left-center:
The Indians, meanwhile, showcased their secret ingredient in a 5-4, 14-inning win over the Kansas City Royals: A terrific bullpen that gave up only one run in 8⅔ scoreless innings. The Indians lead the majors in bullpen ERA — more than half a run better than the Rays, Astros and Yankees, the next three teams in relief ERA. With the win, they kept their deficit at two games, a big change from the middle of June:
Low point: On June 13, the Twins beat the Mariners 10-5 to improve to 45-22, giving them an 11-game lead over the idle Indians.
Odds of winning the division (via FanGraphs): 5.7%
Since June 13: 26-9
The Indians have cleaned up on the little sisters of the poor in the AL Central during this stretch. They’ve gone 10-0 against the Detroit Tigers and 8-2 against the Royals. The only teams with a winning record they played in this 35-game stretch were the Twins and Rangers. Things will get a lot tougher starting July 30, when they begin a 20-game stretch against the Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels, Rangers, Twins, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. The Twins have gone 17-18 since their high-water point — not terrible, but probably worth noting that they didn’t play the Tigers in this stretch and had seven games against the Royals (they went 4-3).
Key stat: The Indians have done this even though Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco have pitched a combined zero innings since June 13. Shane Bieber has gone 5-1 with a 2.57 ERA and Trevor Bauer has gone 5-1 with a 3.06 ERA.
If I’m Cleveland, I keep Bauer. You don’t know what you’re going to get from Kluber once he returns or from Carrasco, if he can return from his cancer treatment. They’ve received some surprising efforts from the likes of Zach Plesac and Adam Plutko, but the schedule obviously played a big role in this run. You’re going to need Bauer when you face the big boys. The Twins will certainly look to add pitching depth — probably the bullpen, which has a 4.96 ERA in July — as their lineup shows no signs of slowing down its onslaught of home runs. Don’t discount the premise that this Indians team knows how to win as it aims for a fourth straight division title.
Current odds of Cleveland winning the division: 20%
I thought those odds might be a little higher, but a key factor is remaining strength of schedule: .464 for the Twins, .499 for the Indians. Cleveland has 19 games left against the White Sox, Royals and Tigers, but Minnesota has 33. The Twins will hold on to take the Central.
While you can’t complain about taking three of four from the Colorado Rockies, Thursday’s loss was a disappointing one for the Nationals, as Fernando Rodney coughed up a 7-6 lead in the top of the ninth. Believe it or not, despite all the Nationals’ bullpen issues, this was actually their first loss when leading after eight innings (they had lost at least one other game after taking the lead in the top of the ninth). Regular closer Sean Doolittle was unavailable after saving both ends of Wednesday’s doubleheader sweep, which is why Rodney was out there. Max Scherzer didn’t get the loss, but his streak of seven straight winning starts was snapped.
Still, the Nationals are 4½ back of the Atlanta Braves — who have lost six of eight — and back in the race compared to two months ago:
Low point: On May 23, the Nationals lost 6-4 to the New York Mets as the Mets completed a four-game sweep at Citi Field. Washington was 19-31, 10 games behind the Braves.
Odds of winning the division (via FanGraphs): 9.7%
Since May 23: 36-16
Though May 23 was the low point, a month later the Nationals were still just 37-40 and 8½ games behind the Braves after losing 4-3 in extra innings to them to lose two of three in the series. Their odds of winning the division had increased to 15.7%. The computers still believed this was a team capable of a hot run, and the projections were correct. That’s when they began a 12-game stretch against the Miami Marlins, Tigers, Marlins again and Royals. The Nationals went 10-2.
Key stat: Through May 23, the Nationals were hitting .243/.316/.405 and averaging 4.38 runs. Since then, they’ve hit .269/.345/.465 and averaged 5.52 runs.
The offense has been much better, but if there’s a key reason they can catch the Braves it’s based on what the top four starters have done since May 24:
Scherzer: 7-0, 1.29 ERA
Anibal Sanchez: 6-0, 2.75 ERA
Patrick Corbin: 4-3, 3.24 ERA
Stephen Strasburg: 9-1, 3.50 ERA
Yes, that will work, and who knew Sanchez had been pitching that well and that Strasburg is quietly having a superb season (hey, it’s hard to get attention in Scherzer’s shadow of excellence). The Braves, meanwhile, are still having bullpen issues — closer Luke Jackson has given up a run in 11 of his past 25 appearances — and the offense has predictably slowed down after averaging 6.68 runs in June. The two teams still have 10 games remaining, including three next week in D.C.
Current odds of Washington to win the division: 27.6%
This race could come down to which team improves its bullpen the most. You have to give the Nationals the edge in the rotation, especially if Sanchez keeps pitching this well. The Braves have that 4½-game lead, and that’s significant, but I’ll stick with my preseason pick: The Nationals take the East.