Has Pacquiao fallen into a trap?
Credit to Author: CONRAD M. CARIÑO| Date: Mon, 27 May 2019 16:15:14 +0000
After the megabout between Manny Pacquiao and Keith Thurman was announced last week, views that our fighting senator could beat the American seems to be gaining popularity.
The main reason for perceptions or predictions that Pacquiao could beat Thurman’s is the American’s so-so performance against Josesito Lopez in January. In that fight, Thurman was on the verge of getting dropped in the seventh round. Also, Thurman may have been expected to stop the game Lopez.
However, there is more than meets the eye from Thurman’s performance against Lopez, with the punch stats revealing he landed 247 punches on the Mexican who in turn landed only 117. Thurman’s punching accuracy in his fight against Lopez was also an impressive 27.5 percent from 899 punches thrown.
On the other hand, Pacquiao landed 112 punches against Adrien Broner in their fight held in March. Broner managed to land only 50 punches over 12 rounds. Pacquiao’s accuracy in the Broner fight was 20 percent from 568 punches.
And Lopez, by closely scrutinizing his record of 36-8 with 19 KOs, was not a cream puff or tomato tincan who could be easily blown away by a punch or two. Lopez may be a stepping stone but he turns out to be also tough, because three of his knockout or stoppage losses were to Canelo Alvarez in September 2012, Marcos Maidana in June 2013 and Andre Berto in March 2015. We all know who Alvarez is. As for Maidana, he also owns a mean knockout streak and gave Floyd Mayweather two very hard fights. And while Berto is no longer a threat, Lopez fought him when he only had one knockout loss.
Thurman may have also committed an error in picking Lopez as a tune-up opponent, because the Mexican is lankish (with long limbs) and stands almost 5’10”, allowing him to catch the American who also employs a “run and gun” tactic in the ring.
The run and gun tactic of Thurman also clearly shows he is far from being a brawler or mindless slugger. I even agree with boxing analysts who say that Thurman is a boxer-puncher, or one who has punching power and skills like counter punching. Such type of boxers are rare in the fight game.
Also, Thurman thrives on volume punching even if he employs his run and gun tactic, as shown in his fights against Lopez and Shawn Porter in June 2016. Thurman laded 235 punches against Porter who in turn connected with 236 punches.
When he decides to face his opponent and not resort to running and gunning, Thurman ends up landing less as shown in his fight against Danny Garcia in March 2017. In that fight, Thurman landed 147 punches over 12 rounds and Garcia connected with 130. Obviously, Thurman respected Garcia’s punching power. In the Garcia fight, Thurman’s accuracy rate was 25.8 percent from 570 punches.
I really do not know how Thurman would fight when he faces Pacquiao on July 20 — would he stand in front of Pacquiao and box, or would he try to frustrate the Filipino by also employing his run and gun tactic.
But this is what I see — Thurman would also employ his run and gun tactic against Pacquiao for two good reasons: being the shorter fighter, Pacquiao would have to work harder to chase Thurman throughout the fight; and the American would not dare trade punches with Pacquiao by standing in front of the Filipino for most of the fight.
One way or another, Thurman would respect Pacquiao’s punching power and would not trade with the Filipino.
Besides Lopez, Porter almost beat Thurman and Porter did this by landing 235 punches. But Porter is a young gun and a rough houser that Pacquiao is not. Porter employed every rough house tactic against Thurman like holding, pushing and what have you, yet Thurman kept his composure and won.
So to beat Thurman, Pacquiao may have to press the action against the American and connect twice the number of punches he usually lands. Also, Pacquiao must take the risk of getting hit by Thurman, and Porter did ate a lot of Thurman’s punches. But can Pacquiao take about 200 to 240 punches from Thurman without getting hurt?
And we all know Thurman has punching power.
In his past two fights against Lucas Matthysse and Adrien Broner, Pacquiao almost had the luxury of walking past the punches thrown at him, because Argentine did not have speed while the American did not have power.
I am not saying Pacquiao that would be blown away by
But it seems that some (or many) boxing analysts fail to realize that Thurman may have been 70 to 80 percent of his best form when he fought Lopez. So, what if Thurman attains 100-percent of his deadly form when he fights Pacquiao?
I hope Pacquiao has not fallen into a deadly trap.
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