What should you expect from incoming rookies?
ESPN Fantasy’s Mike Clay breaks down the fantasy impact of each skill-position pick from the first three rounds of the 2019 NFL draft.
Click to skip ahead to Clay’s takeaways from Round 1, Round 2 or Round 3.
Round 1
No. 1: QB Kyler Murray to Arizona Cardinals
Arizona hired a new coaching staff this offseason, and now the Cardinals have a new quarterback. With Murray likely to be under center come Week 1, Arizona now figures to trade 2018 first-round pick Josh Rosen over the next 24 hours.
Murray is easily the best quarterback in the draft and immediately adds a new dimension to coach Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. The Oklahoma product is extremely undersized (5-foot-10, 207 pounds), but exceptionally efficient with his arm and highly productive with his legs.
Last season, Murray paced combine invitees in yards per pass attempt (11.6), yards per completion (16.8), FBS QB rating (199), total QBR (96), first-down rate (48 percent), third-down conversion rate (54 percent) and yards per carry (7.2).
Murray threw 42 touchdowns to seven interceptions while adding 1,001 rushing yards and 12 rushing TDs. Murray, who was also drafted by the Oakland Athletics, is a superb athlete and one of the youngest quarterbacks in the class (he turns 22 in August).
Murray’s combination of passing efficiency and playmaking ability with his legs supplies him with a massive fantasy ceiling. Though rookies are often hard to trust in fantasy, Murray could be an exception. Consider that there have been three top-10 and six top-14 fantasy seasons by rookie quarterbacks over the past decade. They belonged to Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Dak Prescott, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston. Each of them added significant points with their legs and rushed for four or more touchdowns.
Murray should be viewed as a QB2 with back-end QB1 upside and is worth a late-round pick in your draft.
Initial rookie-season projection: 15 starts, 305-of-491, 3,531 yards, 20 TDs, 14 INTs, 89 carries, 491 yards, 3 TDs
No. 6: QB Daniel Jones to New York Giants
The Giants have found their eventual replacement for Eli Manning in the 6-foot-5, 221-pound Jones. The Duke product has a solid arm and makes his hay in the short-to-intermediate area of the field. Jones’ numbers were far from impressive last season. He was off-target on a prospect-best 9.4 percent of his throws, but his average depth of throw was only 8.1 yards, and his 6.8 yards per attempt was better than that of only Mississippi State’s Nick Fitzgerald.
Jones did deal with a ton of drops, but his weak efficiency and struggles throwing the deep ball are red flags. Jones is a good athlete who will add some value at the pro level with his legs. Manning will be the team’s starter as long as he’s healthy and the Giants are competitive this season, but Jones figures to get a few starts late in the season. He is a fantasy option only in dynasty.
Initial rookie-season projection: 3 starts, 57-of-98, 646 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs, 12 carries, 54 yards
No. 8: TE T.J. Hockenson to Detroit Lions
The Eric Ebron experiment didn’t work out for Detroit in 2014, but the Lions will give tight end another shot with a first-round draft pick. Hockenson joins free-agent signing Jesse James on the Lions’ depth chart.
Overshadowed by teammate Noah Fant heading in to the 2018 season, it didn’t take Hockenson long to take over as Iowa’s top receiving tight end. Hockenson is a terrific pass-catcher and good blocker who has drawn comparisons to Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski and even former Hawkeye George Kittle. Hockenson is a superb athlete, with good size (6-foot-5, 251 pounds) and toughness. He crushed it at the combine, placing near the top of the position in all but the bench press.
Hockenson has every-down tight end written all over him, but, as usual for rookie tight ends, he figures to learn the ropes in 2019 before emerging as a fantasy threat in 2020. Consider that only one tight end has posted a top-10 fantasy campaign in the past decade (Evan Engram), and only four have managed a top-15 season (Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Tim Wright). Hockenson doesn’t need to be on your radar in 10-team leagues in 2019.
Initial rookie-season projection: 65 targets, 43 receptions, 493 yards, 3 TDs
No. 15: QB Dwayne Haskins to Washington Redskins
Washington traded for Case Keenum during the offseason, but he’s now officially a bridge quarterback after the team drafted Haskins on Thursday.
The 6-foot-3, 231-pound pocket-passer has a huge arm and throws an accurate ball, especially in the short area. The latter is notable, considering Haskins’ noticeably low 7.9 average depth of throw last season, though he made his passes count with a strong 70 percent completion rate and a whopping 50 touchdowns to only eight interceptions.
The Ohio State product offers very little as a rusher (108 rushing yards in 14 career starts, 5.04-second 40-yard dash), which means he will need to do his heavy lifting in fantasy with his arm.
History suggests pocket quarterbacks are an extreme long shot for rookie-season fantasy relevance, and Haskins could cede some early-season starts to Keenum (or perhaps Colt McCoy). Haskins is a solid midround pick in rookie drafts but not worth your time in season-long drafts.
Initial rookie-season projection: 10 starts, 215-of-350 for 2,459 yards, 12 TDs, 10 INTs, 17 carries, 41 yards, 1 TD
No. 20: TE Noah Fant to Denver Broncos
Denver has had a void at tight end since moving on from Julius Thomas but took a giant step toward filling the void by selecting Fant in the first round. Fant doesn’t have near the blocking chops of ex-teammate T.J. Hockenson, but he’s a terrific receiver who will operate as an F/move tight end in the pros.
He is thin (6-foot-4, 249 pounds) but also a terrific athlete with good speed and production near the end zone. He was top at the position in the 40-yard dash (4.50 seconds), vertical (39.5 inches), broad jump (127 inches), 3-cone (6.81) and 60-yard shuttle (11.49) at the combine.
Fant’s struggles with drops and blocking have helped connect the dot to comps with Eric Ebron and Evan Engram. Engram is the only rookie tight end to post a top-10 fantasy season in the past decade, so there’s some hope for early relevance here, but the odds say he’ll split time with Jake Butt and Jeff Heuerman in 2019.
Fant isn’t a bad late flier in deeper leagues, but, of course, his primary value is as a fringe first-round pick in rookie drafts.
Initial rookie-season projection: 68 targets, 45 receptions, 502 yards, 3 TDs
No. 24: RB Josh Jacobs to Oakland Raiders
Marshawn Lynch is out and Jacobs is in as Oakland’s feature back. Jacobs has a solid frame (5-foot-10, 220 pounds) and is a terrific rusher, good receiver and even offers value as a kick returner. The Alabama product lacks top-end speed but is quick, elusive and strong.
Jacobs broke one tackle for every 6.1 touches last season, which was best among backs who attended the combine. Jacobs has the skill set to quickly step in as a three-down back in the pros and, aside from deferring some work to Jalen Richard in passing situations, he figures to play that full-time role right out of the gate. Jacobs shouldn’t have trouble pushing for 250 touches as a rookie and should be viewed as a back-end RB2 in season-long leagues.
Note that he’s also one of the youngest players in the draft (turned 21 in February), which adds to his dynasty appeal.
Initial rookie-season projection: 219 carries, 957 yards, 7 TDs, 53 targets, 42 receptions, 352 yards, 1 TD
No. 25: WR Marquise Brown to Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens entered the draft looking for an offensive playmaker and field-stretcher. They got one in Brown.
The former Oklahoma Sooner is extremely small (5-foot-9, 166 pounds) but is super fast with the ability to get behind the defense and make plays with the ball in his hands. Drops (eight last season) and durability (he’s currently recovering from a Lisfranc injury) are red flags, but Brown has the tools to be like DeSean Jackson or John Brown.
Unfortunately, his short-term fantasy value will be hindered by Baltimore’s extremely run-heavy offense and Lamar Jackson‘s shaky accuracy. Brown is worth a late flier in 2019 fantasy drafts only because he has a good chance to lead the team in targets as a rookie.
Initial rookie-season projection: 83 targets, 46 receptions, 684 yards, 3 TDs
No. 32: WR N’Keal Harry to New England Patriots
New England entered the draft with a big need for pass-catchers. The Patriots took a step toward filling that void by spending the final pick of the first round on Harry. Harry is 6-foot-2, 228 pounds and a big, physical downfield weapon. The Arizona State product is terrific with the ball in his hands, and his size makes him a valuable resource near the goal line.
He’s also a very good run-blocker and tied for the position lead with 27 bench reps at the combine. There are concerns here, however, as Harry’s speed (4.53-second 40-yard dash) and athletic limitations have led to struggles with separation. He’s best suited for a big slot role in the pros, which makes him a fit in a Patriots offense that moves its receivers around quite often.
With Josh Gordon‘s future in doubt and Demaryius Thomas a strong candidate to land on the physically unable to perform list, Harry’s top competition for a Week 1 starting gig is the likes of Phillip Dorsett, Maurice Harris and Bruce Ellington. Expectations need to be kept in check for rookies, but if Harry earns starting duties opposite Julian Edelman, he’ll be on the flex radar. This landing spot boosts his dynasty value.
Initial rookie-season projection: 76 targets, 47 receptions, 634 yards, 5 TDs