Who’ll win as senators based on who had won before
Credit to Author: MAURO GIA SAMONTE| Date: Fri, 12 Apr 2019 16:40:13 +0000
I, SAYS my favorite kumpadre, am a pattern-seeking mammal. I judge what’s going to happen based on what happened before.
For instance, in the elections of 1998, I predicted that House Speaker Jose de Venecia would lose, there being this precedent of a Speaker of the House losing in a presidential contest — Ramon Mitra losing in 1992 to Fidel V. Ramos, who had the backing of a historical precedent, a Secretary of National Defense winning as president, Ramon Magsaysay against Elpidio Quirino in 1953. Between Joe de V and Joseph Estrada, Erap had the historical precedent of a vice president winning as president — first by succession, Vice President Carlos P. Garcia succeeding Magsaysay upon the latter’s death in 1957, and Vice President Diosdado Macapagal beating Garcia in the subsequent elections of 1961.
Historical patterns
So, historical pattern had it coming to Joe de V to lose and Erap to win.
In like manner, Erap had it coming to him to be succeeded by his vice president, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, albeit with a dose of military breakaway for an intervening component (in the case of Magsaysay, accidental death), but within constitutional constraints nevertheless.
And GMA was on the verge of having it coming to her with the upheaval by the Hyatt 10 midway in her term, but the Kabayan just didn’t prove equal to the challenge.
In much the same way, Vice President Fernando Lopez just missed the boat when, for a certain consideration, he gave in to the importuning by Ferdinand E. Marcos to let him instead challenge the incumbent President Diosdado Macapagal for the post in the elections of 1965. FM won, thus continuing the tradition of the Senate President as heir to the Philippine presidency, begun by Manuel L. Quezon in 1938 when he won as president of the Commonwealth after being Senate President first. Manuel Roxas himself was Senate President first, then President of the republic later, when he won the elections in 1946.
All the above, by way of laying the basis for this inquiry into the composition of the next 12 senators of the land.
Rationale of midterm elections
The 1987 Constitution provides for a Senate consisting of 24 members serving for a term of six years. This is quite attuned to the six-year term of the president. However, in the 1992 elections, a rule was put in place whereby the first 12 winning senatorial candidates were to serve until 1998 and the next 12 until 1995 only. Thus did it come about that although the Constitution provides for a 24-member Senate, every senatorial election is for electing just 12 senators. And because one such election necessarily takes place midway into the term of the president, that one election is called midterm.
It has become a character, therefore, of midterm elections to serve as gauge of how well or badly the incumbent president has performed.
Like that pungent stench that nauseates jeepney passengers from a passing hog truck, the Laban aroma begun by Ninoy Aquino in his failed run for a Batasan seat in 1978 stuck all the way into the succeeding administrations, and in the midterm elections of 1995, Laban coalition senatorial candidates made up the big majority of the winning circle, nine in all: Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, Raul Rocco, Ramon Magsaysay Jr., Franklin Drilon, Juan Flavier, Sergio Osmeña 3rd, Francisco Tatad, Marcelo Fernan, Juan Ponce Enrile, with the rest of the field being all Nationalist People’s Coalition candidates — Miriam Defensor Santiago, Gregorio Honasan and Anna Dominique Coseteng.
Needless to say, those results must reflect a positive mark for the Fidel V. Ramos administration.
The next midterm elections would come in 2001. But a year earlier, President Joseph Estrada, according to the pattern elaborated above, would be deposed by his vice president, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, and the alignment of forces in the senatorial contest perforce would produce these results: eight for the pro-Gloria People Power Coalition (Juan Flavier, Sergio Osmeña 3rd, Franklin Drilon, Joker Arroyo, Ramon Magsaysay, Jr., Manuel Villar, Francis Pangilinan, and Ralph Recto), ranged against just four for the pro-Erap Pwersa ng Masa coalition (Noli Boy de Castro, Edgardo Angara, Panfilo Lacson and Loi Ejercito).
No two-time Senate by a president
The Black And White upheaval instigated by the Hyatt 10 (Dinky Soliman et al.) into the last half of the GMA administration evidently caused the lady president’s charm to sharply decline. This was betrayed by the results of the next midterm elections under her watch (GMA enjoys the distinction of being the only president who has had the honor of conducting two midterm elections under a Constitution that does not allow reelection for a president; make that out). This time around, the count is in the reverse: eight for the Genuine Opposition (GO) coalition (Loren Legarda, Francis Escudero, Panfilo Lacson, Manuel Villar, Allan Peter Cayetano, Benigno Aquino 3rd, Antonio Trillianes 4th, Koko Pimentel); two for the GMA administration Team Unity coalition (Edgardo Angara and Joker Arroyo), joined by two Independents (Francis Pangilinan and Gregorio Honasan).
So now on the crest of the election wave surging to a climax, could not President Duterte be entertaining a fate similar to that which befell Gloria when her term ended in 2016 — the full fury of Aquino vindictiveness?
History says, beginning with FVR, midterm elections favor the incumbent president. Check out the results of the 2013 midterm elections which favored PNoy. The only occasion midterm elections worked against the incumbent president was in 2007, when they worked against GMA — who did it the second time around.
Moral lesson: you want midterm elections to favor you, don’t do it twice.
President Duterte is doing it only once now; he should prevail.
From Evil 13 to Lucky 9
As I wrote last Saturday, President Duterte is aiming for a 9-3 win for administration-friendly candidates in order to achieve a two-thirds-plus-one standing in the next Senate — for pushing his idea of federalism.
Who will these nine be?
Let’s enumerate all 13 members of the Hugpong ng Pagbabago slate, in alphabetical order: Angara, Sonny; Cayetano, Pia; dela Rosa, Ronald; Ejercito, Joseph Victor (JV); Estrada, Jinggoy; Go, Bong; Mangudadatu, Zajid; Manicad, Jiggy; Marcos, Imee; Pimentel, Koko; Revilla, Bong; Tolentino, Francis; and Villar, Cynthia.
Who among the 13 (an unlucky number, if I may say, like Friday 13th) will make it to the Lucky 9?
Again, going by the alphabet, I’d pick an A, a B, a C, an E, a G, an M, a P, a T, and a V.
“Walang personalan, trabaho lang,” went a popular film quote in the 90s. That forms the yardstick of my choices. No personal biases come into play. It is a blunt recognition of the pragmatism in Philippine politics whereby logistics and power play always decide the question of victory and defeat in elections — to the extent of frustrating popular suffrage.
At the birthday celebration of Francis Tolentino at the Tagaytay City Convention Center last January 3, I noticed that of the 13, two were conspicuously absent: Jinggoy Estrada and Bong Revilla. I asked my kumpadre why, and he said that was a Duterte affair. It turns out, Jinggoy and Bong are part of Hugpong of Sara, not of Duterte’s PDP-Laban.
Although I have not gone to so many of Hugpong rallies, in none of those I had attended had I ever seen Mangudadatu or Manicad. This sort of rounds up this column’s foresight for the Lucky 9 President Duterte needs in achieving his ideal of two thirds plus one majority in the coming Senate.
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