Stop the cheaters in the Senate; gag the surveys
Credit to Author: AL S. VITANGCOL 3RD| Date: Fri, 12 Apr 2019 16:37:56 +0000
FORMER senator Sergio “Serge” Osmeña 3rd alleged last week that Senate seats were sold for P50 million each during the 2016 national and local elections. In an interview with a major television program, Osmeña said that he was faring well in the election surveys, ranking sixth, but ended up 14th at the end of the counting.
Osmeña, however, admitted that he has no evidence to back up his claims of cheating in the Senate election, except his ranking in pre-election surveys.
These allegations are not actually new. Remember the Angry Bird scandal which involved former Commission on Elections (Comelec) chairman Andres “Andy” Bautista?
His wife, Patricia Bautista, accused the former Comelec chief of having more than a billion pesos in hidden wealth, plus a number of multi-million-peso accounts maintained at the Luzon Development Bank (LDB). The Senate supposedly started an inquiry into the alleged money-laundering activities of Bautista sometime in February 2018 but abruptly terminated it due to the nonappearance of the latter.
According to knowledgeable sources, had the Senate continued its investigation, it could have uncovered a series of structured deposits to the LDB accounts of Bautista. These systematic deposits could then be traced back to the bank accounts of three incumbent senators (candidates at that time in 2016). These are your evidence, Mr. Osmeña.
False election surveys
Osmeña should not have relied on the election surveys. He cannot declare himself a winner based on pre-election surveys — the very reason why the Comelec should gag these election surveys. Here’s why.
Published Comelec data show that there are 61,843,750 registered voters in the Philippines with 1,822,173 more registered to vote from overseas. As past elections, not just in the Philippines but around the world, would show, voter registration does not guarantee that registered voters will show up at their designated precincts. The average voter turnout of the last three elections was at 78 percent, with 2016 having 84 percent, 2013 with 77 percent, and 2010, 74 percent.
With a total of 63,665,923 registered voters, in and out of the Philippines, and using the average turnout of voters at 78 percent, the effective base of voters is 49,659,419, or roughly 50 million for ease of computing. Therefore, using a base population of 50 million, a confidence level of 99 percent, and a margin of error of 1 percent, the sample size should be at least 16,572.
Yet, Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia Research use sample sizes ranging from 1,200 to 1,800, which is minuscule beside the supposed 16,572 sample size. Thus, as found by various statistical researchers, the results (using a very small sample size) would be erroneous, slanted, if not totally fake or bogus.
With a sample size of 16,572, the sample population should not be chosen by simple randomness only, but must be stratified. Information taken from Open Data Philippines shows the number of voters by region. The National Capital Region comprises 11.43 percent of the total voting population, balance of Luzon with 38.61 percent, Visayan regions at 21.68 percent, and Mindanao with 28.28 percent.
The SWS claimed that they used a face-to-face interview of 1,500 adults nationwide — 600 in Balance Luzon, and 300 each in Metro Manila, Visayas and Mindanao. Using the Open Data Philippines figures as a basis, for it to be correct and accurate, the sample size in Metro Manila should only be 171 (but SWS placed it at 300) and that for Mindanao should be 424 (yet SWS used only 300). In these areas alone, SWS failed to use the proper stratification.
Another demographic factor to take into account is the male-female ratio. Records show that 51 percent of registered voters are female while the remaining 49 percent is male. With this ratio, the female respondents, again using SWS’ sample size of 1,500 (though in error) should be 765 while the male respondents should be 735.
A key demographic factor that should likewise be considered in performing accurate and proper surveys is the economic classes in the Philippines. The five economic classes in the country and their percentages in terms of the total population are: upper class (“A”) 0.15 percent, middle class (“B”) 25.25 percent, lower class (“C”) 54 percent, income-poor only (“D”) 12.65 percent, and food-poor (“E”) 7.95 percent. There should be two survey respondents coming from Class A; 379 from Class B; 810 from Class C; 190 from Class D; and 119 from Class E. Obviously, SWS did not follow this stratification method.
SWS failed to follow the proper and correct way of conducting election surveys. SWS uses probability-based sampling to select respondents, which is not preferred over stratified sampling methods.
Pre-election surveys are erroneous, if not totally false. If the Comelec will not gag these surveys, then there will be more “Serge Osmeñas” this coming May 2019 elections.
Vote for fresh faces
How do we stop the cheaters in the Senate? The simplest solution is to vote for fresh and new faces for senator. Oust the traditional politicians. Do not vote for those who have been in and out of the Senate of the Philippines (they would not do the country any further good.) Chide those candidates who have already spent hundreds of millions in political advertisements and propaganda.
Rumors persist that a political neophyte, after spending millions of pesos in pol ads, has secured his Senate seat by dealing with the “syndicate,” which has assured him the eighth spot. The same thing goes for another candidate seeking reelection; she is no longer heavily campaigning because she will be in number two after the “counting of votes.”
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