Power Rankings: Big final week for the ACC
Can the ACC really get three 1-seeds?
That’s one of the bigger questions heading into the final week of the regular season — and the first week of conference tournaments in some leagues — after Tennessee throttled Kentucky and North Carolina continued its march through the ACC. The Tar Heels have now won 12 of their past 13 games, including a road victory at Duke. If they handle a road game at Boston College on Tuesday and then complete the sweep of Duke this weekend, the Tar Heels will own a share of the ACC regular-season title.
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In that case, it will be tough to deny them a 1-seed — but if Duke loses again, the Blue Devils could theoretically lose their 1-seed, depending on the status of Zion Williamson.
We’re getting ahead of ourselves, though. There was a similar debate last week after Tennessee lost at LSU, but the fourth 1-seed is completely up for grabs right now. Following the Volunteers’ win over Kentucky on Saturday, we kept the Wildcats at No. 4. After a closer look, however, John Calipari’s team drops in the rankings.
North Carolina has quietly compiled a terrific résumé. The Tar Heels are strong in the NET and sit in the top five at KenPom, at Sagarin and in the BPI. They have elite strength-of-schedule numbers and have improved to 8-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents and 14-5 against Quadrants 1 and 2. They’re also 10-1 in road games. Carolina’s pair of wins over Gonzaga and at Duke is unparalleled right now, and the Tar Heels also beat Virginia Tech and Florida State. Their worst loss is a neutral-site defeat to Texas back in November.
Tennessee moved into the top five of the NET after beating Kentucky, but the Volunteers’ schedule numbers are not as impressive as those of Carolina. The Vols are 7-3 against Quadrant 1 opponents and 12-3 against Quadrants 1 and 2, however, including victories over Gonzaga and Kentucky. Their worst loss was also back in November, to Kansas in New York.
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Kentucky has the most Quadrant 1 wins of the three teams, sitting at 9-4 in that category. The Wildcats have beaten both of the other teams in the mix, defeating North Carolina back in December and Tennessee a couple of weeks ago. They also knocked off Kansas and beat Mississippi State twice. They have great schedule numbers, but also have the two worst losses of the trio, against Alabama and Seton Hall earlier this season.
Don’t count out the winner of Michigan vs. Michigan State, either. Both teams have some injury questions, but the Spartans have the most Quadrant 1 wins in the country and the Wolverines have the most combined Quadrant 1 and 2 wins.
With less than two weeks until Selection Sunday, we’ll go with North Carolina — giving the ACC three of the top four teams in the country right now.
1. Virginia Cavaliers (26-2)
Previous ranking: 1
This week: at Syracuse (Monday), vs. Louisville (Saturday)
After a midseason lull in which Virginia had some uncharacteristic efforts at both ends of the floor, it seems the Cavaliers are starting to round into form heading down the stretch. Ty Jerome‘s return to health could have played a role, as could the easier schedule. Either way, Virginia has locked down defensively since the win at North Carolina, allowing fewer than one point per possession in five straight games, while also taking better care of the ball and finding its perimeter stroke again.
2. Gonzaga Bulldogs (29-2)
Previous ranking: 2
This week: West Coast Conference tournament
If Sean Farnham’s remarks on Saturday night’s broadcast were any indication, it sounds like Gonzaga could get Killian Tillie back at some point this season. Though Tillie hasn’t been a major factor this season due to injuries, he’s a versatile big man who can switch defensively and also step out and make shots. He provided an added dimension off the bench during his nine healthy games back in January and early February.
3. Duke Blue Devils (25-4)
Previous ranking: 3
This week: vs. Wake Forest (Tuesday), at North Carolina (Saturday)
Although Zion Williamson shutting things down for the season still seems far-fetched, Mike Krzyzewski’s words following Saturday’s win over Miami seemed to at least open up the possibility that the star freshman is still not close to returning. Williamson has yet to do any contact drills in practice. The selection committee could face the huge question of how to view Duke’s profile if Williamson doesn’t return for the ACC tournament.
4. North Carolina Tar Heels (24-5)
Previous ranking: 5
This week: at Boston College (Tuesday), vs. Duke (Saturday)
Carolina takes the final 1-seed for now, but the margin between the Tar Heels and the next few teams behind them is very slim. On Saturday, they have the rematch against Duke. In the first meeting in Durham, Carolina was aggressive in the paint and simply attacked Duke’s bigs with Luke Maye, Cameron Johnson and Garrison Brooks. The three players combined for 70 points and 30 rebounds.
5. Tennessee Volunteers (26-3)
Previous ranking: 6
This week: vs. Mississippi State (Tuesday), at Auburn (Saturday)
If Tennessee is to make a deep run in March, the Volunteers will need to guard like they did on Saturday against Kentucky. It was their most efficient defensive performance against an NCAA tournament team all season, as they held the Wildcats to 0.79 points per possession — by far Kentucky’s worst offensive effort of the season. Tennessee has experience and toughness and we saw last season it can be an elite defensive team.
6. Kentucky Wildcats (24-5)
Previous ranking: 4
This week: at Ole Miss (Tuesday), vs. Florida (Saturday)
Kentucky still has a chance at a share of the SEC title as LSU still has to go to Florida and Tennessee still faces Mississippi State and Auburn. But John Calipari will have to hope Reid Travis is back sooner rather than later. Though Travis hasn’t put up the numbers he did at Stanford, his physicality and experience up front have been assets. Nick Richards and EJ Montgomery offer length and shot-blocking, but against high-level teams like Tennessee, the Wildcats need someone like Travis to bang in the post.
7. Michigan Wolverines (26-4)
Previous ranking: 8
This week: at Michigan State (Saturday)
Michigan still awaits the return of Charles Matthews, but the Wolverines have survived two games without him. Isaiah Livers slotted into the starting lineup, and he has been a plus due to his motor and contributions on the glass and his ability to step outside and make 3-pointers. He had 12 points and 10 rebounds, including three 3-pointers, against Nebraska — then followed it up with 11 points and five rebounds, with three more 3-pointers, at Maryland.
8. Michigan State Spartans (23-6)
Previous ranking: 7
This week: vs. Nebraska (Tuesday), vs. Michigan (Saturday)
Michigan State dropped to third place in the Big Ten standings after the weekend, but the Spartans return home for their final two games of the season — including this weekend’s rematch against Michigan. It’s unlikely Nick Ward or Charles Matthews will suit up for that one, but the key matchup will once again come between Cassius Winston and Zavier Simpson. Winston was terrific in the first meeting.
9. LSU Tigers (24-5)
Previous ranking: 11
This week: at Florida (Wednesday), vs. Vanderbilt (Saturday)
Tremont Waters returned for LSU on Saturday, but it was Javonte Smart who handled most of the playmaking duties once again. In the three games since Waters got hurt — including Saturday’s — Smart has averaged 21.7 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.0 assists. The freshman guard had been somewhat inconsistent in SEC play, but his emergence has made LSU even more balanced and dangerous offensively.
10. Texas Tech Red Raiders (24-5)
Previous ranking: 9
This week: vs. Texas (Monday), at Iowa State (Saturday)
The Red Raiders are on a tear right now. They sit in a tie for first place in the Big 12, with games against Texas and at Iowa State coming up next week. It could come down to the final day of the regular season. They haven’t won in classic Chris Beard fashion, as they’ve allowed roughly one point per possession in each of their past three games — but they’ve been dominant offensively, scoring 1.31 points per possession over their past five games. For reference, Gonzaga ranks No. 1 nationally on the season at 1.25 points per possession.
11. Purdue Boilermakers (22-7)
Previous ranking: 12
This week: at Minnesota (Tuesday), at Northwestern (Saturday)
Matt Painter’s team is two road wins from an outright Big Ten title — and Carsen Edwards‘ slump seems to be in the rearview mirror. The All-American guard has now totaled 48 points on 17-for-30 shooting in the past two games, including 6-for-13 from 3-point range. He had just one turnover on Saturday, too. When Edwards is filling it up efficiently, the Boilermakers play at a different level.
12. Houston Cougars (27-2)
Previous ranking: 10
This week: vs. SMU (Thursday), at Cincinnati (Sunday)
How much will Houston’s loss to UCF on Saturday hurt the Cougars’ seeding? It’s hard to see them getting a 2-seed at this point, given the logjam of teams ahead of them — but Houston still has to go to Cincinnati and will likely get the Bearcats or UCF again in the AAC tournament. For now, the Cougars stay in the top 12. Armoni Brooks needs to get it going again, though. The team’s second-leading scorer has totaled 25 points in the past three games, shooting 9-for-26 from the field.
13. Kansas Jayhawks (22-7)
Previous ranking: 14
This week: at Oklahoma (Tuesday), vs. Baylor (Saturday)
Continuing The Streak remains a possibility, as the Jayhawks escaped Gallagher-Iba Arena with a close win over Oklahoma State. They have now won five of six since losing at Kansas State in early February. One positive over the past two games has been the play of Quentin Grimes, who had essentially disappeared as an offensive weapon in Big 12 play. The five-star freshman totaled 29 points and shot 7-for-13 from 3-point range in the past two games.
14. Virginia Tech Hokies (22-6)
Previous ranking: 15
This week: at Florida State (Tuesday), vs. Miami (Friday)
The Hokies continue to quietly move up the rankings thanks to their bye this past weekend and losses by teams ahead of them. Virginia Tech is simply not as good without Justin Robinson, but it’s starting to figure things out in his absence — and the dominance of Kerry Blackshear Jr. down low is a major reason. Over his past four games, Blackshear is averaging 24.3 points and 11.5 rebounds.
15. Marquette Golden Eagles (23-6)
Previous ranking: 13
This week: at Seton Hall (Wednesday), vs. Georgetown (Saturday)
That was a week to forget for Steve Wojciechowski’s team. Marquette entered it with a chance to clinch at least a share of the Big East title … and ended it a half-game behind Villanova in the standings. The Golden Eagles have really struggled offensively in their past two games, scoring fewer than one point per possession in back-to-back games. Turnovers were the biggest culprit this past week; Marquette had 40 in two games.
16. Wisconsin Badgers (20-9)
Previous ranking: 16
This week: vs. Iowa (Thursday), at Ohio State (Sunday)
Wisconsin edges out Florida State and Kansas State for the final spot in the rankings, but the Badgers are really struggling offensively lately despite winning three of four. They’re just seventh in the Big Ten in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they’ve been held to fewer than one point per possession in six of their past seven games. An elite defense has kept them in the mix, but they’re going to need to be more efficient to win games this month.
Dropped out: None