What’s real, what’s fake, and the UNC vs. Duke debate
Jay Bilas breaks down why Duke being the stronger team doesn’t mean North Carolina can’t make a deep tournament run. (1:02)
College basketball has entered its most significant stretch. And that means it’s time for another edition of What’s Real? And What’s Fake? in college basketball.
You’re a fool if you put an asterisk next to North Carolina‘s dominant win over Duke last week.
Here’s why: The numbers suggest the Blue Devils have been a great team with or without Williamson, who suffered a mild knee sprain 36 seconds into the 88-72 loss to the Tar Heels on Wednesday.
The Blue Devils have defeated Syracuse, Florida State and Virginia at less than 100 percent. They’ve also lost to Gonzaga at less than 100 percent. They’ve also lost to Gonzaga and Syracuse (in the first meeting between the teams this season) with Williamson available.
Remember that.
As teams jockey for position in the final weeks before conference tournaments, these matchups have the most significance.
Here’s your updated source for all the latest on the NCAA tournament bubble.
Entering Wednesday’s matchup against North Carolina, Duke had held its opponents to an average of 0.86 points per possession when RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish played without Williamson, and 0.85 PPP when all three played together, per HoopLens.com.
The Blue Devils are clearly a better unit with Williamson, the projected No. 1 pick in this year’s NBA draft, and their Final Four odds would plummet if he decided to end his season and prepare for the draft. Yet, the idea that North Carolina — a team that had victories over Gonzaga, Virginia Tech and Louisville entering last week’s matchup against Duke — could not have staged a winning effort against the Blue Devils at full strength was ridiculous then and now. The Tar Heels, who’ve lost one game since Jan. 12, beat Florida State by 18 points Saturday.
They’re top 10 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom. They’ve made 51 percent of their shots in transition and 47 percent of their post-ups, per Synergy data.
The same folks still penalizing North Carolina for its lopsided loss to Louisville last month would also likely overlook Kentucky‘s early 34-point loss to Duke and subsequent Ls to Seton Hall and Alabama. But Kentucky deserves praise for what it is doing now.
Same for North Carolina, which has evolved into a national title contender.
The Tar Heels didn’t beat Duke on a buzzer-beater. They won by 16 points, were the third team to score 88 points or more against Duke this season (all losses for the Blue Devils), and didn’t even play a great game. That has to count for something.
And Williamson’s presence might not have changed the final result.
Duke ain’t invincible. And North Carolina is damned good.
It’s difficult to describe the mood Saturday at the Carrier Dome. The emotions were apparent in the buildup to Saturday’s game, which came three days after Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim struck and killed Jorge Jimenez, 51, in an accident on a local highway as Boeheim drove home from a postgame dinner.
Conversations about Boeheim’s decision to coach Saturday dominated the media room.
In my pregame conversations with Brian Hernandez, one of Jimenez’s sons, it was clear both he and his family had a multitude of emotions about Boeheim’s decision.
This all set the scene for Syracuse’s matchup against Duke, an event witnessed by 35,642 fans — a new Division I attendance record for an on-campus arena. It was a feverish, energized atmosphere.
The school’s pregame acknowledgement, with a statement that was read by the public-address announcer in both English and Spanish (Jimenez was from Cuba and spoke Spanish) prior to a moment of a silence, was an appropriate gesture.
Boeheim’s own emotions were on display before the game, during it and in the postgame news conference. His solemn tone was expected. After the game, he sounded like a man who will need time to process everything that unfolded Wednesday, as you would certainly expect. And the family of the victim has a long road ahead, too. Their pain can’t be lost in all of this, either.
With no blueprint, the university addressed this difficult moment with respect and professionalism.
Syracuse could have botched this. Officials at the school could have ignored the incident or addressed it with the wrong tone. Fans could have been boorish and disrespectful. But everyone in that packed building seemed to understand the weight of the moment and tragedy.
Athletic director John Wildhack, senior executive associate athletic director Sue Cornelius Edson, director of athletic communications Pete Moore and others associated with the school dealt with a challenging sequence of events with class.
After the game, Hernandez posted a link to the video of the pregame moment of silence in honor of his father on his Facebook page.
“Thank you SU and everyone for this,” he wrote, before adding a heart and a Cuban flag next to the hashtag #we_all_love_you_dad.
No, RJ Barrett deserves that honor.
Imagine Duke without him this season. Barrett had 33 against Kentucky in the Champions Classic. He’s the reason the Blue Devils nearly stormed back against Gonzaga in the Maui Invitational. He scored 32 in a win against Florida State after Williamson missed most of the game with an eye injury. His early 3-pointers in the victory at Virginia forced the Cavaliers to stretch their defense. He changed that game. He made key plays down the stretch of his team’s monumental comeback against Louisville.
And he scored 30 points (14-for-20) in Saturday’s win at Syracuse, where the Blue Devils not named Alex O’Connell or Barrett finished 6-for-30 from the field.
Anyone surprised by what Barrett has done this season shouldn’t be.
This is the same dude who played point guard and finished with 38 points, 13 rebounds and 5 assists in Canada’s double-digit win over the United States — Reddish, Josh Okogie, Hamidou Diallo, Carsen Edwards and PJ Washington were on America’s roster — in the under-19 world championships two years ago.
He was the unanimous No. 1 recruit entering the 2018-19 season, too.
Barrett has been a hero for Duke this season. And the only player in his stratosphere in college basketball right now is Williamson. Duke’s injuries have allowed Barrett to truly showcase his value.
Williamson might win the Wooden Award, but at the team awards ceremony, Barrett should capture the MVP.
Listen, Williamson will likely win the bulk of the national player of the year accolades. And that’s fair.
He’s been the most impactful player in the country, and no athlete in America can match his diverse stat line.
But Winston’s effort in Michigan State‘s 77-70 win at rival Michigan on Sunday — 27 points, 8 assists, 2 steals — was another necessary performance for a player who was missing teammate Nick Ward, who is injured. The Spartans lost Joshua Langford earlier this season.
And yet, Michigan State — which lost a pair of lottery picks from last season’s team — will enter the week atop the Big Ten, America’s deepest league, with a 14-3 league record.
Winston is one of four Spartans who have played all 28 games this season.
He’s made 41 percent of his 3-point attempts and 82 percent of his free throws in Big Ten play.
And he’s a wild card in this national player of the year race.
Well, he should be.