Predicting NBA superstar moves: KD, Kyrie, AD and Kawhi
Brian Windhorst breaks down what should be a very exciting playoff push following the All-Star break. (2:13)
What’s the most likely Anthony Davis trade destination? Where will Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Kawhi Leonard end up playing next season?
The ESPN Forecast panel looks ahead to the big moves that could happen in the 2019 offseason.
The trade deadline passed without the New Orleans Pelicans acquiescing to Davis’ trade request. Will the packages get better in June and July?
The Boston Celtics will be able to make their best offer in the offseason, though the big question is whether that will include Jayson Tatum. They’re the favorites to swing an AD trade, according to our panel, with a few other teams chasing the Los Angeles Lakers behind Boston.
Others receiving votes: Brooklyn Nets, LA Clippers, New Orleans Pelicans, New York Knicks
MORE: What’s next for the Pelicans and top AD trade contenders?
Is this KD’s last season with the Warriors? Our panel predicts he’s headed to New York, despite him pushing back on free-agency rumors following the Kristaps Porzingis trade.
“I have nothing to do with the Knicks,” Durant said earlier this month. “I don’t know who traded Porzingis. They got nothing to do with me.”
MORE: The top storylines to watch in the NBA’s stretch run
A week before the trade deadline, Irving softened his preseason stance that he plans to re-sign in Boston with comments such as “Ask me July 1” and “I don’t owe anybody s—.”
There are plenty of suitors for Irving in free agency — and Anthony Davis’ destination could be a factor here — but our panel predicts he remains in Boston.
MORE: NBA mock draft: Top five picks for Knicks, Bulls, Hawks
The Clippers have essentially been treating Leonard like a college recruit this season by showing up to plenty of his games, according to a report by ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, and Toronto officials have noticed.
Our panel predicts this is mostly a two-team race, with the Clippers as the favorites and the Lakers as a distant third behind the Raptors.
MORE: Which NBA teams can chase superstar free agents?
Our panel doesn’t buy that Thompson might walk in free agency, overwhelmingly predicting he re-signs with Golden State.
Thompson continues to be open about his desire to return, but ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski has reported that if Thompson doesn’t get a full max offer from the Warriors, he could look at the Lakers.
MORE: Steve Kerr endorses Lakers fans’ chants: ‘They should want Klay’
The Warriors can’t offer Cousins more than $6.4 million to return in free agency unless they create cap space (which is extremely unlikely). So who are the favorites to sign the Golden State center?
Our panel likes the two Los Angeles teams here.
Others receiving votes: Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings, Washington Wizards
MORE: Power Rankings special edition on the top contenders
Both of Philadelphia’s big midseason trade pickups — Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris — can hit unrestricted free agency in July and are likely to command max (or near max) contracts. Will they want to stay with the 76ers, and will Philly be ready to spend big to re-sign both?
Our panel is high on Harris staying but considers Butler more questionable. As one member of the Sixers organization told ESPN’s Jackie MacMullan about Butler last month, “If you want to get paid, try keeping quiet.”
MORE: Can these Sixers reach their incredible ceiling?
This is a deep and talented free-agent class, especially if you factor in the stars with options or restricted tags. So who are the best players for teams to target if they miss out on the elite group?
Charlotte Hornets guard Kemba Walker and Milwaukee Bucks wing Khris Middleton are the top picks by our panel.
Others receiving votes: Eric Bledsoe (unrestricted), Marc Gasol (player option), Al Horford (player option), Kristaps Porzingis (restricted), Julius Randle (player option)
MORE: Who’s got next in the NBA? The case for Giannis, Luka and more stars
The Lakers can add two max players next to LeBron James this summer, but because of their cap sheet, it will likely require trading for a star (such as Anthony Davis) after signing a big free agent.
Even if L.A. wins the AD trade sweepstakes, executing that timing might be tough. Our panel thinks it’s most likely the Lakers land one more star, but not multiple.
MORE: Which members of Team LeBron could become Team Lakers?
After the Porzingis trade, the Knicks now have room for two max slots plus extra draft assets. As ESPN’s Kevin Pelton outlined, that means they can theoretically sign two stars — such as Durant and Irving — and then trade their pick plus their young pieces for Davis.
New York is desperate for a big-time star, and our panel predicts at least one — and likely even more — will end up there this summer.
MORE: Can the Knicks build a Kyrie, KD, Anthony Davis superteam?
The Clippers are fresh off three “A” grades from ESPN’s Kevin Pelton at the trade deadline. They’re still in the running for a spot in the Western Conference playoffs, but if they fall out, they keep their first-round pick (giving them another key trade asset for a potential big move).
Between the free-agent and trade possibilities, our panel predicts the Clips get at least one star to build around.
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Even though our panel predicts plenty of star player movement — including Durant leaving Golden State — the Warriors still run away with this one.
The champs are tough to beat.
Others receiving votes: Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Oklahoma City Thunder
MORE: Top of the East can now swing superstar free agency
Image credits (in order of appearance): Derick E. Hingle/USA TODAY Sports, Carlos Osorio/AP Photo, Omar Rawlings/Getty Images, Tim Bradbury/Getty Images, Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images, Robert Laberge/Getty Images, Mitchell Leff/Getty Images, Chuck Burton/AP Photo, Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE/Getty Images, David Richard/USA TODAY Sports, Al Sermeno/USA TODAY Sports, AP Photo/Nick Wass