Power rankings: What has happened to Michigan State?
Illinois fans storm the court after upsetting No. 9 Michigan State 79-74. (1:18)
In the span of 10 days, Michigan State has gone from arguably the hottest team in the country to the biggest fall in the power rankings. The Spartans lost their third game in a row on Tuesday night, this time to an Illinois team that was 7-15 entering the night. That loss comes on the heels of Saturday’s home defeat to Indiana, which had lost seven games in a row before facing the Spartans.
Michigan State has gone from squarely in the top tier of national championship contenders to third place in the Big Ten and a long distance from the 1-seed conversation.
So what’s wrong? Most will point to the loss of Joshua Langford, but that requires a deeper look. The numbers don’t necessarily back up that assertion. According to Bart Torvik’s adjusted efficiency ratings, Michigan State was +26.3 with Langford in the lineup and +27.4 since Langford’s injury. Here’s the thing, though. When Langford first got hurt, Kyle Ahrens stepped into the lineup and performed admirably. Then freshman Aaron Henry did the same when Ahrens missed time with an injury. Moreover, Nick Ward was dominating on the inside, pushing for double-doubles on a nightly basis.
The supporting cast for Cassius Winston has really struggled lately, though. Ahrens was 2-for-7 against Illinois and Henry played just 14 minutes. Ward didn’t start Tuesday and is now averaging just 10.3 points and 3.3 rebounds in his past three games. Winston is therefore being forced to do too much, and he turned it over nine times against the Illini.
The offense stagnated late in the game when they needed a basket, and the defense didn’t get stops either. In fact, the Spartans have now allowed well more than one point per possession in three straight games — after allowing just one opponent to reach that threshold since Dec. 3.
Tom Izzo has some things to work out if Michigan State is going to get back in the title hunt.
For the most part, there has been a clear group of six teams at the top of college basketball, and then everyone else. With Michigan and Michigan State slipping, though, and Kentucky and North Carolina hitting their stride, there now seems to be two groups of four at the top.
And it’s that second group of four that has sparked the most debate following the weekend. After Saturday’s games, we went with Michigan State at No. 5, followed by Michigan, Kentucky and then North Carolina. Let’s parse through the four teams and see if that needs changing moving forward.
Michigan State doesn’t have the marquee wins of its fellow contenders, especially outside the conference, but the Spartans do own a handful of solid Big Ten wins — including ones over Purdue and Maryland, and a pair over Iowa. Their NET ranking dropped to 8 following Saturday, but they’re still in the top four at KenPom, BPI and Sagarin. Michigan State also has the most Quadrant 1 wins of any team in the country, tied with Kansas at eight. The Spartans are 12-4 against Quadrants 1 and 2. The loss Saturday at home to Indiana drags them down a bit, though.
Michigan has three very good wins, having blown out North Carolina, Purdue and Villanova in the first few weeks of the season. The Wolverines have only two losses, and both came on the road against top-25 NET teams. Their nonconference SOS is by far the worst of the quartet, though, and they rank No. 8 and No. 9 in Sagarin and BPI, respectively. That said, Michigan is an impressive 11-2 against Quadrants 1 and 2 — and the Wolverines have the highest strength of record (SOR) and KPI of the four — but they are also tied with North Carolina for fewest Quadrant 1 wins (five) of the four teams.
Kentucky is on fire right now: The Wildcats have won eight in a row, including a comeback victory at Florida on Saturday night. The Wildcats have a host of impressive wins, including ones over North Carolina, Louisville and Kansas, as well as a road victory at Auburn, and solid Strength of Schedule (SOS) numbers. They do have a Quadrant 2 loss to Seton Hall on a neutral court, and they’re ranked between Nos. 7 and 9 in KenPom, Sagarin and BPI. Kentucky has six Quadrant 1 wins and a 9-3 record against Quadrants 1 and 2.
North Carolina rounds out the group, and the Tar Heels are in the same boat as Kentucky in terms of playing perhaps their best basketball of the season right now. They’ve won five in a row and nine of their past 10. Their NET is the lowest of the four teams, but they’re in the top five in Sagarin and ahead of Kentucky and Michigan in the BPI. Carolina has the best schedule numbers of the four teams, and all four of the Heels’ losses have come against Quadrant 1 teams. However, they’re just 5-4 against Quadrant 1 opponents. Their win over Gonzaga is their best, but they’ve also lost to two of the other three teams in the discussion here.
After taking a closer look, we still feel pretty good about the order coming out of Saturday night.
1. Tennessee Volunteers (21-1)
Previous ranking: 1
This week: Beat Missouri 72-60 on Tuesday, vs. Florida (Saturday, 4 p.m. ET)
It wasn’t Tennessee’s best performance of the season, but the Volunteers still cruised to victory over Missouri. One noteworthy aspect of the game was Admiral Schofield going 3-for-5 from 3-point range. The powerful forward had been in a slump from the perimeter lately, shooting just 3-for-22 from behind the arc over his past five games. It will be a boost if he can get his shot back.
2. Duke Blue Devils (20-2)
Previous ranking: 2
This week: Beat Boston College 80-55 on Tuesday, at Virginia (Saturday, 6 p.m. ET on ESPN)
Coming Saturday: Duke vs. Virginia, Round 2. This time around, the Blue Devils will have Tre Jones, who had one of the best individual defensive performances of the season over the weekend against St. John’s guard Shamorie Ponds. Jones shut out Ponds in the first half and limited him to 11 points on 11 shots, along with five turnovers.
3. Virginia Cavaliers (19-1)
Previous ranking: 3
This week: vs. Duke (Saturday, 6 p.m. ET on ESPN)
Tony Bennett’s team now gets a full week to rest before hosting Duke and then traveling to North Carolina two days later. Those games will shape the ACC race. In the first meeting against Duke, the Cavaliers had their second-worst defensive effort of the season and shot just 3-for-17 from 3-point range — their worst shooting performance.
4. Gonzaga Bulldogs (21-2)
Previous ranking: 4
This week: vs. San Francisco (Thursday, 9 p.m. ET), vs. Saint Mary’s (Saturday, 10 p.m. ET)
This is arguably Gonzaga’s most difficult week of their West Coast Conference schedule, as the Bulldogs host both San Francisco and Saint Mary’s. The Dons gave the Bulldogs a run in the first meeting between the two teams, but they have now lost two in a row. The Gaels aren’t their usual selves, but they have victories over San Francisco and New Mexico State this season.
5. Michigan Wolverines (21-2)
Previous ranking: 6
This week: Beat Rutgers 77-65 on Tuesday, vs. Wisconsin (Saturday, noon ET on Fox)
Ignas Brazdeikis helped the Wolverines bounce back from their loss on Friday to Iowa, going for 23 points — his highest point total since early December against Northwestern. The freshman from Canada has been consistent despite Michigan’s offensive struggles with the exception of one game: a zero-point effort against Wisconsin in the Wolverines’ first loss. The revenge game comes Saturday.
6. Kentucky Wildcats (19-3)
Previous ranking: 7
This week: Beat South Carolina 76-48 on Tuesday, at Mississippi State (Saturday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS)
PJ Washington in his past four games has averaged 20.4 points and 9.6 rebounds. The sophomore forward had 20 points against South Carolina on Tuesday, but the bigger story might be the effort off the bench from EJ Montgomery. He went for 11 points and 13 rebounds, both of which are season highs. If John Calipari can get consistent production from Montgomery and Nick Richards, the Wildcats get a little tougher.
7. North Carolina Tar Heels (18-4)
Previous ranking: 8
This week: vs. Beat NC State 113-96 on Tuesday, vs. Miami (Saturday, noon ET on ACC Network/WatchESPN)
North Carolina went out and dropped 113 points against NC State on Tuesday night, hitting triple digits for the second time in four games. The Tar Heels got 31 points and 12 rebounds from Luke Maye to lead the way and were able to get out in transition for several easy baskets. Giving up 96 points won’t look good on paper, but Roy Williams will take the 17-point win.
8. Nevada Wolf Pack (21-1)
Previous ranking: 9
This week: at Colorado State (Wednesday, 10 p.m. ET on CBSSN), vs. New Mexico (Saturday, 6 p.m. ET on CBSSN)
Caleb Martin is starting to find his outside shot again for the Wolf Pack. After going 1-for-7 from 3-point range in the loss to New Mexico, and then having a three-game stretch in which he shot 9-for-37 from behind the arc, Martin has picked up the pace in his past three games. During that span, Martin has made 15-of-30 from 3-point range en route to averaging 24.7 points.
9. Houston Cougars (21-1)
Previous ranking: 10
This week: at UCF (Thursday, 7 p.m. ET on CBSSN), vs. Cincinnati (Sunday, 4 p.m. ET on ESPN)
Houston has just one blemish so far, but the Cougars now begin their toughest week of the season. They have to travel to UCF on Thursday, followed by a home game against Cincinnati. UCF was the preseason favorite in the AAC but hasn’t quite lived up to that expectation. Cincinnati has won seven in a row and has shown some of the best offense we’ve seen under Mick Cronin.
10. Michigan State Spartans (18-5)
Previous ranking: 5
This week: Lost to Illinois 79-74 on Tuesday, vs. Minnesota (Saturday, 2 p.m. ET)
That’s now three losses in a row for the Spartans, and they have dropped to third in the Big Ten standings. They do return home for three of their next four games, but there’s a road trip to Wisconsin next week. Without Joshua Langford to provide consistent scoring on the wing, though, the Spartans might not have enough punch on the offensive end.
11. Louisville Cardinals (17-6)
Previous ranking: 12
This week: Beat Virginia Tech 72-64 on Monday, at Florida State (Saturday, 4 p.m. ET)
Louisville is going to have a heck of a profile on Selection Sunday. The Cardinals now own road wins over North Carolina and Virginia Tech and a home victory over Michigan State. They were excellent offensively Monday against the Hokies, making 13 3-pointers — their third game in a row knocking down double-digit triples — and getting double digits off the bench from Steven Enoch and Ryan McMahon.
12. Kansas Jayhawks (17-6)
Previous ranking: 11
This week: Lost to Kansas State 74-67 on Tuesday, vs. Oklahoma State (Saturday, noon ET)
So this Big 12 race might actually be a thing. After Kansas lost the Sunflower Showdown on Tuesday night, Kansas State is now atop the Big 12 standings by itself — and Kansas sits in fourth place. It seemed like the Jayhawks might have solved their scoring issues against Texas Tech on Saturday, but they went 7-for-20 from 3-point range against Kansas State and Dedric Lawson once again didn’t get enough help. By the way, Kansas is now 1-6 in true road games.
13. Marquette Golden Eagles (19-4)
Previous ranking: 12
This week: Lost to St. John’s 70-69 on Tuesday, vs. Villanova (Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET on Fox)
This week could have been the chance for Marquette to solidify its standing in the bracket and also take over the top of the Big East standings, but the Golden Eagles saw their eight-game winning streak end with another loss to St. John’s. Marquette has now lost two games since Nov. 21, with both coming to the Red Storm. Villanova comes to town Saturday.
14. Purdue Boilermakers (15-6)
Previous ranking: 14
This week: vs. Nebraska (Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET on BTN)
Purdue needed another comeback Sunday to win, but the Boilermakers have now rattled off seven consecutive victories following a 9-6 start to the season. Freshman Trevion Williams has added a nice dimension down low for Purdue, hitting double figures in four of his past six games after not playing much of a role for the first half of the season. Williams had 16 points and four boards Sunday.
15. Iowa State Cyclones (17-5)
Previous ranking: 16
This week: Beat Oklahoma 75-74 on Monday, vs. TCU (Saturday, 2 p.m. ET)
Marial Shayok‘s senior-year breakout has flown under the radar nationally, going from averaging 8.9 points as a junior at Virginia to putting up around 19 per game as a senior. Shayok was terrific down the stretch Monday night at Oklahoma, including hitting a contested, go-ahead 3-pointer in the final minutes and then sealing the win with two late free throws.
16. Virginia Tech Hokies (18-4)
Previous ranking: 12
This week: Lost to Louisville 72-64 on Monday, at Clemson (Saturday, noon ET)
The Hokies’ inability to limit teams from the perimeter has been costly multiple times in the past few weeks, with Virginia, North Carolina and Louisville all hitting at least 13 3-pointers in their respective victories over Tech. The Hokies are ranked No. 18 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, but that number has fallen off a cliff in conference play. They’re just ninth in the ACC in adjusted defensive efficiency in conference games.
Dropped out: None