Bubble Watch: Who’s trending toward the field of 68?
Welcome to a whole new day here at Bubble Watch.
As you know, the NCAA has adopted its fancy new NCAA Evaluation Tool, the NET. Well, taking a page from that same book, the technicians in white lab coats here at Bubble Watch Mission Control have instituted two big upgrades to turbocharge your bracket obsessing.
First and most important, Bubble Watch will be “live” from now until Selection Sunday. No, wait, make that “live!”
When a bubble team’s profile meaningfully changes, its entry will be updated in short order. Meaning you can land on this page at any point from now to the Selection Show and have the latest and best information available on the entire bubble.
(You’re welcome. We do it because we’re obsessed, too.)
The Bulldogs have won 12 in a row and join Duke, Virginia and Tennessee as No. 1 seeds in Joe Lunardi’s latest bracket.
Too many potential tournament teams are under .500 in conference play.
Indiana’s win at Michigan State can be a launching pad to the tourney, and other college hoops hot takes I can prove.
Second, Bubble Watch 2019 will be availing itself of the most helpful analytic work on a fiendishly slippery yet fundamentally crucial question. If we’re talking about the bubble nonstop this time of year, it helps to know precisely how many teams are competing for precisely how many spots.
No, we can’t see the future (yet — work continues on a flux capacitor), and, sure, bid thieves happen come conference tournament time (last year there were two: San Diego State and Davidson). Still, having analyzed 337 conference tournaments over the past 11 years, we here at Bubble Watch are ready to project the size of the 2019 bubble. That projection will always be readily available at the top of Bubble Watch.
So, before we dive in, here are some reminders on phrasing. …
Locks are teams that are going to be in the NCAA tournament, period. A lock has never been unlocked. Why, that would be like, say, a No. 16 seed beating a No. 1 seed.
Fine, that happened, but your trusty Bubble Watch lock system remains undefeated and will remain so until it isn’t.
“Should be in” means the team would be in the tournament, no problem, if today were Selection Sunday and the NCAA’s men’s basketball committee didn’t careen out of control.
“Work to do” means the team’s clearly in the conversation but can’t take a bid for granted based purely on work to date.
Last, remember always that teams will both enter and drop out of the discussion. The bubble is fluid, and one of the peak thrills of any coach’s career is when, in the moments after his previously invisible-to-Bubble-Watch team’s big win, John Gasaway tweets out, “Welcome to the bubble.” Chills!
Right, enough housekeeping. Here’s how we’re projecting the bubble right now …
Bids from traditional “one-bid” leagues: 23 teams
Locks: 10 teams
The bubble: 41 teams for 35 available spots
Should be in: 21 teams
Work to do: 20 teams
ACC | Big 12| Big East | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC | American | Others
Locks: Virginia, Duke, North Carolina
Should be in: Louisville, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Syracuse
Work to do: NC State
A fleeting appearance under “should be in” is just a pro forma last box to be checked for the Cardinals on their way to full lock status. Absent a total Oklahoma-in-2018 collapse (and even the Sooners got in!), nothing will keep Jordan Nwora and his mates from an elite seed.
See “Louisville,” above, last box to be checked, etc. Buzz Williams apparently has the greatest defense in the history of college basketball. We kid, we kid, but, seriously, the Hokies’ neutral-floor win over Purdue looks better with each passing day, offsetting at least part of that whole “lost at Penn State” thing.
FSU owns wins over Purdue (at home) and LSU (on a neutral floor) by a combined margin of four points, the key word in this sentence being “owns.” The victories are in the books, and now Leonard Hamilton’s team is about to embark on one of those all-seeding-implications-all-the-time scheduling swings the ACC does so well. The fun begins right away with a road game at Syracuse. Speaking of which …
The official motto of Syracuse in 2019 is “We won at Duke.” That’s an excellent motto (yes, yes, the Blue Devils were short-handed, duly noted), one that will balance some demerits – such as the four Orange losses in Quads 2 and 3. Not to mention few Bubble Watch teams are blessed with as many upcoming opportunities: Florida State (see previous item), Louisville, Duke and Virginia are all heading to the Carrier Dome in the next few weeks.
Bubble Watch isn’t going to sift through the rubble of a 47-24 loss at home to Virginia Tech that has “mother of all non-repeatable outliers” written all over it. Still, the salient point of that game is simply that it was a missed opportunity for a Quadrant 1 win. As it stands now, NC State has just one of those on the season (at home against Auburn) despite playing in the Quad 1 Candyland known as the ACC. The overtime loss to Virginia in Raleigh in particular was, naturally, a very big opportunity-cost deal.
Lock: Kansas
Should be in: Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma
Work to do: Baylor, Texas, TCU
One more top-20-NET team moving toward lock territory, so let’s observe something notable in the meantime. The NCAA’s move this season to reformat team sheets and further refine game results within each of the four quadrants is particularly revealing with respect to the Red Raiders. Against the top of Quad 1, for example, Texas Tech is 0-5. Conversely, when playing the remainder of Quad 1, Jarrett Culver & Co. are undefeated, with victories over Nebraska (neutral floor), at home against Kansas State and at Texas.
Like Texas Tech, ISU is a prime candidate to be marked as a lock in the very near future. Unlike the Red Raiders, however, the Cyclones came away with the win when these two teams met in Lubbock in January. That, along with beating Kansas in Ames and this week’s victory at Oklahoma, constitute the leading bullet points on the résumé for Marial Shayok, Tyrese Haliburton and their fellow Clones.
The Wildcats haven’t lost a conference game since Dean Wade came back from his foot injury in early January. (Note the weasel word “conference.” K-State did stumble, rather surprisingly, against Texas A&M in College Station in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge.) Now a near-ideal opportunity to extend that streak awaits in the form of a home game against Kansas. Win or lose, Bruce Weber’s guys already possess one of the league’s highest-value victories in the form of their 58-57 win at Iowa State in January.
Lon Kruger’s team swept its season series with Oklahoma State and also beat TCU in Norman. Past that, however, OU has posted seven Big 12 losses. The mock brackets are unconcerned so far, and certainly the Big 12 will send plenty of “good win” opportunities the Sooners’ way, up to and including a home game against Kansas in the final week of the season. That being said, Oklahoma will have to win some of these games at some point.
Consider the Bears an aberrantly strong “work to do.” If Makai Mason, King McClure and and Mark Vital keep doing what they’re doing (mostly, 3s, 3s and offensive boards, respectively), Baylor could see its projected seed climb, rapidly, from its present 9-10 range. If there’s an explanation for why the Big 12’s co-leader isn’t getting more present-tense bracket (or AP top 25) love, well, Quad 4 losses against Texas Southern and Stephen F. Austin certainly aren’t helping matters.
Put an asterisk by that 4-5 record in Big 12 play, because Shaka Smart’s guys have actually recorded a better per-possession scoring margin against conference opponents than has Kansas. The perimeter-oriented Longhorns are riding Kerwin Roach and the rim defense of Jaxson Hayes. That’s a good combination on paper, one that, presumably, will translate into more wins and a more solid bracket status than UT’s current “in, but don’t mess it up” perch.
The Horned Frogs are trying to straddle two increasingly divergent tracks. On the one hand, TCU’s a solid middle seed in mock brackets, with victories over Baylor, Texas and Florida to its credit. On the other hand, Jamie Dixon’s team just got absolutely hammered by the aforementioned Bears in the rematch and has now lost five of its past eight games. One of these tracks is going to drop away. Either the Frogs will start playing better, or the “solid middle seed” bit will be a memory.
Should be in: Marquette, Villanova
Work to do: St. John’s, Seton Hall, Creighton, Butler
The men from Milwaukee appear headed for their best seed since Buzz Williams took a team featuring Vander Blue and Davante Gardner from the No. 3 line to the 2013 Elite Eight. In particular, Marquette’s wins in 2018-19 have shown an uncanny tendency to look better with age, as vanquished foes such as Louisville, Kansas State, Wisconsin and Buffalo have charted upward trajectories as the season’s progressed.
Before they started once again treating the Big East as their personal plaything, Phil Booth, Eric Paschall and their colleagues were perhaps better known to you for losing to Furman and to Penn. Those defeats aren’t as bad in NET terms as you might assume (they fall under Quad 2, where they appear alongside seven Villanova wins), but they do hold the potential to cost the Wildcats in seeding. Put it this way, the higher Nova rises in the rankings, the stronger the qualitative contrast in the “loss” department will be with peer teams.
Fresh off a drubbing at Duke, Chris Mullin’s team gets a shot at what is, on paper, the best NET win the 2019 Big East has to offer: Marquette, in Milwaukee. It’s all reward and no risk for a St. John’s group that’s currently projected to be one of the final teams in the field by Joe Lunardi. A victory would also give the Storm a two-game sweep, with SJU’s 20-point victory over the Golden Eagles on New Year’s Day in Queens standing out as the best entry on the team’s résumé.
Bracket positions don’t get more precarious than the one currently inhabited by SHU. The Pirates are variously projected to be one of the last teams in or one of the first teams out, depending on your preference in mock brackets. You might look at the Hall and see a 4-6 Big East team that’s lost six of its past eight. A whole-season connoisseur, on the other hand, sees a group that also beat Kentucky on a neutral floor and Maryland in College Park.
Bubble, thy name is Big East. If St. John’s is barely in and Seton Hall could go either way, well, Creighton is right there with all of the above. It turns out the Bluejays really could have used a win against Marquette in that game that went to overtime in Omaha, Nebraska, last month. Instead, Markus Howard scored 53 points and CU took the loss. Now all three of Creighton’s remaining regular-season Quad 1 opportunities are away games, and two are up next: Villanova and Seton Hall back-to-back, both on the road.
The Bulldogs are lurking on the fringes of the bubble discussion, and a two-point nail-biter at home against Seton Hall did at least put a capper on what had been a three-game losing streak. That being said, BU’s already lost home games to both Marquette and Villanova. At 4-6 in the Big East and with road games at Georgetown and St. John’s coming next, LaVall Jordan’s team could really use a win, or better still two.
Locks: Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue
Should be in: Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa
Work to do: Minnesota, Ohio State, Indiana
The Badgers beat Michigan, their road victory at Iowa keeps improving with age and Ethan Happ and his eager minions are above .500 (5-4) in Quad 1 games. All of which is to say, no, you likely won’t be seeing Wisconsin in non-lock territory for much longer.
Close students of the bubble are about to get some needed seeding clarity with regard to the Terps. Certainly, no one will begrudge a young team losing on the road to Michigan State and Wisconsin over the past couple weeks. The 11-point loss to Illinois at Madison Square Garden, however, was a surprise. So where in the bracket should Bruno Fernando and Anthony Cowan be slotted? The next four games will speak volumes, with tests upcoming at Nebraska, at home against Purdue and then, finally, back-to-back road contests at Michigan and Iowa.
Locks that haven’t lost many games of any kind notwithstanding, Iowa has one of the sweetest no-bad-loss profiles you’ll see anywhere. This team’s “worst” loss is a road defeat at Minnesota. Otherwise, you’re looking at setbacks against Michigan State (twice), Purdue and Wisconsin. That’s it. Never mind the questionable defense, if Luka Garza keeps blowing up into the next tall Big Ten non-Happ happening, Iowa can earn a really nice seed.
The Gophers would perhaps be a No. 10 seed or thereabouts if the field were bracketed today, and that road win at Wisconsin is an excellent chip to have in your pocket. Also, who knew the neutral-floor win over Washington would look this good? Now Richard Pitino’s team can make a strong move into single-digit-seed territory in its next two games. The Badgers are coming to Minneapolis for the rematch, and Minnesota then travels to Michigan State.
That true road win OSU recorded at Cincinnati in its very first game of the season continues to pay dividends. Still, if the Buckeyes are to stay “in” the field (quotation marks indicate no one is in the field, it’s February), the team will presumably have to go from 4-6 in the Big Ten to a near-.500 finish. That’s no sure thing with a closing schedule that includes road tests at Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland and Purdue, not to mention home games against Iowa and Wisconsin.
What is one to make of Indiana now? Wins over Louisville, Marquette and, especially, at Michigan State are beautiful on any résumé. At the same time, IU’s 4-7 in the Big Ten, so the Hoosiers still need more wins to get into the tournament. How’s Juwan Morgan‘s shoulder? Will the 3s keep falling, the way they did in the overtime win at MSU? Indiana’s at-large prospects ride on such questions.
Should be in: Washington
Work to do: Arizona State
It turns out early February is crunch time for UW’s seeding profile. The Pac-12’s not offering the Huskies much in the way of remaining Quad 1 opportunities, and, in fact, the only two such games likely to occur are up next: Washington will play road games at Arizona and Arizona State. Two wins would lift defensive artist Matisse Thybulle and his cohorts to 11-0 in league play, but, barring the most extreme streak of either wins or losses, it’s possible the Huskies are coasting toward slash locked into a spot around the Nos. 7 or 8 lines.
For a second consecutive season, beating Kansas is keeping ASU just barely on the right side of the “in/out” line for now. True, the Sun Devils also have a neutral-floor win over Mississippi State to their credit. Still, with any Pac-12 bubble hopeful in 2019, the discussion essentially boils down to whether and where you’re going to get to play Washington. The answer there is Arizona State hosts UW this weekend. Go strong, Sun Devils.
Locks: Tennessee, Kentucky
Should be in: LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn
Work to do: Ole Miss, Alabama, Florida
Take one step forward if you predicted in the preseason that LSU would be in a second-place tie with tournament lock Kentucky, just a game in back of tournament lock Tennessee. Led by the ball-hawking of Tremont Waters and Skylar Mays, this defense has recorded a big year-to-year improvement, one that’s pointing toward a seed on the top six lines. Then again maybe that seed can improve as well. The next game for Will Wade’s group is at Mississippi State. Not a bad Quad 1 opportunity there.
At the risk of overstating the drama of the moment, Ben Howland’s tenure in Starkville has kind of been building to this next stretch of games. Mississippi State’s being given the luxury of back-to-back home dates against LSU and Kentucky. The news is already good for the Bulldogs, of course, with a gaudy 6-2 Quad 1 record to their credit. Even so, wins against the Tigers and the Wildcats would be a giant leap forward.
Auburn has more potential to ascend from its current middle-seed portion of the bracket than its 3-4 record in SEC play might indicate. With the exception of a lopsided loss at Ole Miss in the conference opener, the Tigers have shown an uncanny knack for winning blowouts and losing nail-biters. This tendency most definitely includes AU’s 82-80 loss at home to Kentucky in January. Make no mistake, Bryce Brown and Jared Harper can score points in a hurry.
The Rebels are demonstrating how persistence of vision manifests itself in tournament selection. Ole Miss has lost four straight and five of its past six, but good work done in November (neutral-floor win over Baylor) and especially in early January (beating Auburn in Oxford and Mississippi State in Starkville) is, for now, keeping Terence Davis & Co. in projected single-seed territory. Barely.
Welcome to the precarious far reaches of the tournament field. Indeed, if Selection Sunday were held today, Alabama would be one of those “could go either way” teams. Beating Kentucky in Tuscaloosa is a fine start to any résumé, surely, but that’s kind of the point. Avery Johnson’s men don’t have much more to show aside from a home victory over Mississippi State. If they did, the Crimson Tide’s position wouldn’t be quite so tenuous.
Speaking of could go either way, the Gators are right there with the Tide. Florida’s win at Arkansas stands alone as its only Quad 1 victory. Then again, the SEC this season offers many chances to improve one’s profile. For UF, those chances will take the form of games against Tennessee, Kentucky and Auburn — all on the road — as well as two shots at LSU.
Should be in: Houston, Cincinnati
Work to do: UCF, Temple
Teams that are 21-1 don’t generally hang around the “should be in” zip code long before relocating to the pricier realm of the locks. So this might be Bubble Watch’s only chance to pay tribute to the Cougars, who’ve defied all expectations and remained just as good as they were last season despite losing two starters. Armoni Brooks and Corey Davis have been outstanding, and it’s likely we’ll hear Houston’s name called as one of the first 16 teams in the projected field in the NCAA’s bracket preview this weekend.
For a team projected to land in the middle of the bracket, Cincinnati’s seed shows significant potential for volatility. Start with the fact that the Bearcats have played just three Quad 1 games all season (they’re 2-1), throw in one of those unsightly Quad 4 losses (at East Carolina) and then add the coup de grâce of variability. UC gets five Quad 1 chances in its final nine games, including two shots at Houston. This projected No. 7 seed could jump or fall significantly. Stay tuned.
Let’s keep this simple: UCF gets the American’s best opponent, Houston, at home this week. The game tips off a stretch where the Knights’ tournament prospects will be made or dashed. Right now Johnny Dawkins’ squad is showing up as one of the last teams in the field, but two yet-to-be-played games against the Cougars and two more against Cincinnati can change that position dramatically in either direction.
That “1” in Houston’s 21-1 record of course belongs to the Owls, who took down Kelvin Sampson’s group when the Cougars visited Philadelphia at the beginning of January. Speaking of “1,” well, Temple’s 1-5 in its Quad 1 outings. It’s a great win, but, by itself, it might not be enough to get this team in the field. The Owls did perhaps catch a break, however, in getting three upcoming road games at USF, Memphis and UConn. The combination of opponent and venue means each of those games, barely, might be Quad 1 material.
Lock: Gonzaga
Should be in: Nevada, Buffalo
Work to do: VCU, San Francisco, Utah State
Eric Musselman went after Pac-12 opponents in making his 2018-19 schedule, and, well, that league isn’t having its best season. The dip in what was supposed to be major-conference opponent strength explains how Nevada is currently being projected as a No. 4 seed with a 21-1 record. It also accounts for the fact that Musselman’s team is still yet to play a Quad 1 game this season. That will change, at last, when the Wolf Pack visit Utah State at the beginning of next month.
It’s a mark of what UB head coach Nate Oats hath wrought that we’re here talking about a MAC team with road losses at Bowling Green and Northern Illinois in “should be in” terms. Rightly so. Life on the road in the MAC is tough in 2019, and, anyway, there’s the small matter of the Bulls’ 19-3 overall record with their road wins at West Virginia and Syracuse.
The Rams won at Texas by one point at the beginning of December, and there are no Quad 1 opportunities remaining on the Atlantic 10 schedule for Mike Rhoades’ team. Who knows, an outright regular-season A-10 title could be enough for an at-large bid (in the event of a loss in the conference tournament). Anyway, if VCU does play its way into the tournament, spectators and, especially, opponents will be confronted with one fearsome defense.
We’ve seen this drama before, only it’s customarily Saint Mary’s taking the leading role. A West Coast Conference team endeavors to win at least one of its shots against Gonzaga and not lose any other league games. As it happens, San Francisco already fell at home by 13 to the Bulldogs in a game that was much closer than its score would indicate. Then the Dons lost back-to-back road games at San Diego and SMC. It’s possible it could be the Gaels ultimately taking this role again in 2019 after all.
Sam Merrill and his teammates spent the better part of January beating up on the Mountain West’s lower division. (To be sure, Utah State did win at New Mexico, a claim Nevada cannot make.) Now, however, things are about to get more challenging for Craig Smith’s group. A tough road test at Fresno State is next, a game that could give the Aggies their best preparation leading up to next month’s potentially profile-defining home game against the Wolf Pack.