Let’s preview all 12 remaining NFL Week 13 games: Picks, predictions, fantasy X factors and matchup nuggets
Credit to Author: NFL Nation| Date: Sat, 30 Nov 2024 01:17:41 EST
Aaron Rodgers tells Pat McAfee that he hasn’t decided on his playing future but that the Jets would be his first option if he returns. (1:04)
The Week 13 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.
Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full, post-Thanksgiving Week 13 slate, including a battle of the best running backs — the Eagles’ Saquon Barkley versus the Ravens’ Derrick Henry — and the 49ers’ visit to Buffalo. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Browns and the Broncos on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
LAC-ATL | PIT-CIN
ARI-MIN | IND-NE | SEA-NYJ
TEN-WSH | HOU-JAX | LAR-NO
TB-CAR | PHI-BAL | SF-BUF | CLE-DEN
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LAC -2.5 (48.5 O/U)
Chargers storyline to watch: The Chargers and quarterback Justin Herbert have struggled in the second half of games. He has the third-best QBR (74.7) in the first half this season, compared with 29th in the second (35.6). Los Angeles is averaging 8.4 points per game in the second half, which ranks 30th in the NFL. It scored only 10 points in the second half of the Monday night loss to the Ravens. — Kris Rhim
Falcons storyline to watch: Before Weeks 10 and 11, Kirk Cousins had never had two consecutive games without a touchdown pass since becoming an NFL starting quarterback 11 years ago. It won’t get easier for him. The Chargers have allowed the eighth-fewest touchdown passes this season (14) and the ninth-lowest pass EPA (minus-34.6). — Marc Raimondi
Stat to know: The Falcons have 10 sacks this season, their fewest through 11 games in history and the fewest by any team through 11 games since the 2018 Raiders.
Bold prediction: Chargers linebacker Daiyan Henley will record 10-plus combined tackles. Henley has played 100% of defensive snaps, and the Falcons rank 29th in pass rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey. He has scored 10 or more fantasy points in four of his past five games, including two contests with 18 or more points. The Falcons’ defense has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Atlanta has also struggled against slot receivers this season, giving McConkey an even higher ceiling. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Falcons are 7-15 ATS in their past 22 games when the line is between plus-3 and minus-3. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Chargers 28, Falcons 21
Moody’s pick: Chargers 23, Falcons 21
Walder’s pick: Chargers 23, Falcons 17
FPI prediction: LAC, 51.2% (by an average of 0.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Falcons’ pass rush threatens promising season
Take a look at some stats behind Bijan Robinson looking to bounce back in fantasy vs. the Chargers.
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: CIN -3 (48.5 O/U)
Steelers storyline to watch: The Steelers’ offense ranks 30th in red zone scoring percentage (44.7%), while the Bengals red zone defense is among the worst in the league, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on nearly 71% of trips. Before scoring two fourth-quarter touchdowns against the Browns, Pittsburgh went seven quarters without a touchdown. Recognizing their shortcomings, the Steelers are emphasizing red zone offense — along with short-yardage situations — in practice ahead of facing a defense that has struggled in those areas. — Brooke Pryor
Bengals storyline to watch: Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow‘s career-best season will be tested by one of the best pass defenses in the league. Pittsburgh leads the league in opposing QBR (51.2) because of its zone defense. Using primarily a Cover 3 look, the Steelers are second in zone QBR and have 10 interceptions in zone coverage, per ESPN Research. The Bengals’ offense ranks fourth in zone QBR (78.4). — Ben Baby
Stat to know: Burrow has three straight games with three or more passing touchdowns. That’s tied for the longest streak of his career and the longest by a Bengals quarterback since 1970.
Bold prediction: Steelers wide receiver George Pickens will bounce back with a 100-yard game. Pickens has been great this season, with a 79 open score, 10th best in the NFL. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Steelers running back Jaylen Warren. He has had 14 or more touches and scored 11-plus fantasy points in two of the past three games. Over that stretch, he was more efficient than Najee Harris, averaging an impressive 7.1 yards per touch. The Bengals’ defense? It has allowed 100-plus rushing yards or a rushing touchdown in every game this season. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Overs are 6-0 when the Bengals face teams with winning records this season. The Bengals are 0-6 outright (2-4 ATS) in those games. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bengals 24, Steelers 22
Moody’s pick: Bengals 21, Steelers 17
Walder’s pick: Bengals 27, Steelers 24
FPI prediction: CIN, 51.0% (by an average of 0.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Steelers still inconsistent about how they’re deploying Fields … Bengals bring back table tennis stations after bye week
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: MIN -3.5 (45.5 O/U)
Cardinals storyline to watch: The Cardinals are coming off a deflating loss to Seattle only to find themselves facing the best defense in the NFL. Kyler Murray has talked all season about his growth as a quarterback and having a better understanding of what defenses are trying to do to slow him down. There’s no better time than Sunday for Murray to show how smart he is in the pocket. A loss could send Arizona further down the NFC West standings, but a win would keep it near the top. — Josh Weinfuss
Vikings storyline to watch: The Vikings have not lost to the Cardinals at home since 1977 and have won 11 consecutive games against them in Minnesota, including the postseason. As they look to extend that streak, their biggest challenge is containing Murray, who ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing yards by a quarterback (380). The Vikings’ defense allowed 33 rushing yards last week to the Bears’ Caleb Williams, but it ranks first in the NFL over the season in the fewest rushing yards (95) and the lowest average yards per rush (2.6) by quarterbacks. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold has 14 turnovers this season, tied with Gardner Minshew for the most by any player in the NFL.
Stephen A. Smith reacts to the Vikings signing Daniel Jones to back up Sam Darnold.
Bold prediction: Cardinals tight end Trey McBride will catch a touchdown pass. It’s finally going to happen! I really mean it! McBride has been excellent all season, averaging 2.5 yards per route run (second among tight ends) and just hasn’t found the end zone yet. But he will. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. He’s averaging only 6.0 targets and 11.3 fantasy points per game this season. Managers had WR1 hopes for him, but he’s looking more like a flex option right now. The good news? He faces a Vikings defense that gives up the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Vikings have covered seven straight meetings. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Vikings 28, Cardinals 24
Moody’s pick: Vikings 24, Cardinals 16
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 24, Vikings 23
FPI prediction: MIN, 58.5% (by an average of 3.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Cardinals remain playoff hopeful despite costly Seahawks loss … Vikings’ Sam Darnold delivers signature moment with OT win
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: IND -2.5 (42.5 O/U)
Colts storyline to watch: Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has seen his production fall dramatically in recent weeks. The 2021 NFL rushing leader enjoyed a stretch of four 100-yard rushing performances in a span of six weeks earlier in the season. But he has struggled to get going in the past two games, averaging 46 yards and 2.6 yards per rush. Much of the issue traces back to an undermanned offensive line, which the Colts have been unable to mitigate. Said offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter: “Running the football, it’s a team or an offensive unit sort of thing. It’s all 11 of us.” — Stephen Holder
Patriots storyline to watch: Rookie quarterback Drake Maye‘s 10 touchdown passes have gone to 10 different receivers, which ties the Broncos’ Steve Ramsey (1971-73) for the most consecutive touchdowns to a different receiver to start a career. But both the Patriots and Colts will be looking to clean up penalties; New England was flagged 13 times in last week’s loss to the Dolphins, while Indianapolis was flagged 12 times in its loss to the Lions. Colts coach Shane Steichen and Patriots coach Jerod Mayo both said the same thing — the high penalty total starts with them. — Mike Reiss
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Stat to know: Maye has thrown an interception in four straight games, the longest such streak among 2024 rookies.
Bold prediction: Colts cornerback Samuel Womack III will not allow a single reception. He has continued to put up strong numbers and opponents are targeting him just 12% of the time, seventh lowest among outside corners with at least 200 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. He’s coming off one of his best games this season (15.6 fantasy points against the Lions). Now, he takes on a Patriots defense that gives up the sixth-most receiving yards to wide receivers. With Josh Downs week-to-week due to a shoulder injury, Pittman should see a heavy target share. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Patriots are an NFL-worst 3-9 ATS in the first half. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Colts 19, Patriots 16
Moody’s pick: Patriots 22, Colts 20
Walder’s pick: Colts 17, Patriots 16
FPI prediction: IND, 61.4% (by an average of 4.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Colts in familiar position with long odds for playoffs … Patriots’ Peppers removed from commissioner exempt list
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: SEA -2 (42.5 O/U)
Seahawks storyline to watch: Geno Smith returns to MetLife Stadium to face the team that drafted him, but his star-crossed history with the Jets is not as important as his present situation with the Seahawks. He has had a solid season under tough circumstances, ranking second in the NFL in passing yards (3,035) but leading in interceptions (12). He is carrying an offense with no run game and a below-average offensive line. All that could add a layer of complexity to contract negotiations if and when the two sides discuss a new deal this offseason, something Smith wanted this past summer. — Brady Henderson
Jets storyline to watch: A healthy and rested quarterback Aaron Rodgers, coming off a bye week, begins what could be the final homestretch of his career. Rodgers, who said he’s undecided on whether he will play in 2025, hopes to finish his disappointing season on the upswing. One positive is that he has gone 139 consecutive pass attempts without an interception, covering four-plus games. — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: Last week, Smith was sacked five times for the third game this season. Only Deshaun Watson (4) and Will Levis (5) have more such games.
Bold prediction: Jets cornerback D.J. Reed will not allow more than 25 receiving yards as the nearest defender. Though cornerback Sauce Gardner hasn’t been at his usual level this season, Reed has still been solid, allowing a better-than-average 1.0 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats. The Seattle receivers present a challenge, but I think Reed is capable of a strong game against them. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson. Wilson has been quiet lately, with just 14 total targets and 14.9 total fantasy points over the past two games. But he’s in a great spot to bounce back after the bye. The Seahawks’ defense has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past month, giving Wilson a golden opportunity to shine. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their past six as a favorite. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Seahawks 24, Jets 17
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 23, Jets 20
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 20, Jets 17
FPI prediction: NYJ, 53.6% (by an average of 1.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jets’ Jeff Ulbrich: Rodgers will ‘absolutely’ start vs. Seahawks
On “The Pat McAfee Show,” Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers voices his feelings about the firing of Joe Douglas.
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: WSH -5.5 (44.5 O/U)
Titans storyline to watch: Titans quarterback Will Levis has a 68% completion percentage with 748 passing yards and five touchdown passes over the past three games. The second-year quarterback has also rediscovered his big-play ability, with eight explosive pass plays (at least 20 yards) over that span. He will look to maintain his steady improvement this week against Washington’s pass defense, which has allowed 189.1 passing yards per game (fourth best). — Turron Davenport
Commanders storyline to watch: The Commanders’ offense has sputtered the past two weeks despite a wild finish against Dallas (they averaged 3.9 yards per play until late in the game). During their three-game losing streak, they averaged 99.3 yards rushing and 4.0 yards per carry; Washington averaged 163.9 yards rushing per game and 5.0 yards per carry in going 7-2. Meanwhile, Tennessee has allowed just 3.0 yards per rush in its past three games (and 4.0 for the season). Maybe Washington can attack through the air, as the Titans have allowed 7.9 yards per pass attempt since Week 10. — John Keim
Stat to know: Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley is third in the NFL with 451 receiving yards since Week 8. He’s behind Courtland Sutton (467) and Puka Nacua (455).
Bold prediction: Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels will rebound with a 70-plus QBR game. He was just too good early in the season for me to ignore it, and the Titans’ defense is just OK. Tennessee ranks in the middle of the road in EPA allowed per dropback this year and is below average since Week 7. — Walder
Injuries: Titans | Commanders
Fantasy X factor: Titans running back Tony Pollard. He’s on pace for his third straight 1,000-yard rushing season and has been outstanding for Tennessee, especially since its bye week. He has logged 18 or more touches in five of his past seven games, scoring 10-plus fantasy points in five of them, including three games with 18 or more points. The Commanders’ defense has allowed 22.2 fantasy points per game to running backs this season, giving Pollard a high floor and strong potential for another big day. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Titans are a league-worst 2-9 ATS. Last week’s win snapped a six-game ATS losing streak. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Commanders, 30, Titans 21
Moody’s pick: Commanders 28, Titans 20
Walder’s pick: Commanders 28, Titans 19
FPI prediction: WSH, 66.3% (by an average of 6.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Commanders put Seibert on IR after missed kicks … Inside the Commanders-Cowboys wild fourth quarter
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: HOU -5 (43.5 O/U)
Texans storyline to watch: The Texans have won 11 out of their past 13 games against the Jaguars. They defeated Jacksonville 24-20 in Week 4, with quarterback C.J. Stroud throwing for 345 yards with two touchdowns. In his three career games against the Jaguars, Stroud has thrown for 929 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions. — DJ Bien-Aime
Jaguars storyline to watch: The Jaguars have scored fewer than 10 points in back-to-back games with backup quarterback Mac Jones, but there are encouraging signs that point to Trevor Lawrence (left shoulder) returning against the Texans. That should energize the offense and help the Jaguars avoid a dubious piece of franchise history: Failing to score double-digit points in three consecutive games. — Mike DiRocco
Stat to know: The Jaguars are 1-6 in one-score games (eight points or fewer), which is tied with the Bengals for the most such losses in the NFL.
Bold prediction: Texans edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter will again combine for at least 3.0 sacks. Last week, they combined for 5.0 sacks and Hunter finished second in pass rush win rate (31.6%) at edge. — Walder
Bessemer, Alabama, is dubbed Marvel City and native son DeMeco Ryans earned the nickname “Cap” as a player. Playing a game of name association, the Texans coach identifies Super Heroes who remind him of his players.
Fantasy X factor: Texans wide receiver Tank Dell. He had seven or more targets and scored 10 or more fantasy points in three of his past four games. Dell has a fantastic matchup against a Jaguars defense that gives up the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Nico Collins should draw plenty of defensive attention, which could open things up even more for Dell. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their past five games and 3-0 ATS in their past three home games. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Texans 28, Jaguars 20
Moody’s pick: Texans 27, Jaguars 24
Walder’s pick: Texans 30, Jaguars 13
FPI prediction: HOU, 64.4% (by an average of 5.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Stroud after Texans’ latest loss: Not playing up to standard … Jaguars’ offense still looking for answers amid 17-game skid
4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: LAR -2.5 (49.5 O/U)
Rams storyline to watch: Through 12 weeks, Rams outside linebacker Jared Verse leads the rookie class with 51 pressures. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he has taken 66.3% of his snaps from the right edge, which projects a matchup against the Saints’ Taliese Fuaga. The Saints left tackle is having the opposite start to Verse, with the lowest pressure rate allowed by any rookie this season (7.4%). — Sarah Barshop
Saints storyline to watch: The Saints are getting healthy again after their bye — defensive end Tanoh Kpassagnon returned to practice for the first time this season after tearing his Achilles in the offseason. The biggest health question now is center Erik McCoy, who left their last game with a groin injury after playing for the first time since surgery in September. Saints coach Darren Rizzi said McCoy is considered day-by-day to play at this point. — Katherine Terrell
Stat to know: The Rams’ Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are the only wide receiver teammates to have 400 receiving yards each game since Week 8, when they both returned to the lineup after injuries.
Bold prediction: Saints cornerback Alontae Taylor will allow more than 100 receiving yards as the nearest defender. He is allowing a massive 2.1 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and he’ll likely struggle against the Rams’ top receivers. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: The Saints have been relying heavily on running back Alvin Kamara, who is averaging 21.6 touches and 111.4 total yards per game. Kamara is set up for another busy day against the Rams. Los Angeles has struggled against running backs, allowing the fifth-most rushing yards and 11th-most receiving yards per game. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Rams are 5-1 ATS as road favorites since 2022. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Saints 21, Rams 18
Moody’s pick: Saints 24, Rams 20
Walder’s pick: Rams 24, Saints 16
FPI prediction: NO, 51.6% (by an average of 0.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Rams aren’t playing like a top contender in the NFC … Saints’ Hill has milestone day with 230 all-purpose yards
4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: TB -5.5 (46.5 O/U)
Buccaneers storyline to watch: The Bucs snapped a four-game losing streak with a post-bye-week win over the Giants to gain ground in their playoff push. Wide receiver Mike Evans‘ and cornerback Jamel Dean‘s returns were impactful, as was the presence of safety Mike Edwards. And of course, quarterback Baker Mayfield continues to have possibly the best season of his career. But their biggest advantage Sunday will be the ground game. The Panthers’ defense allows a league-worst 160.6 rushing yards per game, while the Bucs’ 128.1 rushing yards per game is 10th in the league after they ranked last in 2023. — Jenna Laine
Panthers storyline to watch: Quarterback Bryce Young is coming off his best game and a three-game streak of solid play where the Panthers are 2-1. The defense is improving, collecting a season-high five sacks against the Chiefs on Sunday. However, Carolina still struggles to keep teams out of the end zone, allowing an NFL-worst 30.9 points a game. And the Buccaneers can be explosive, as they rank seventh in passing yards per game (241.5). Carolina’s secondary remains vulnerable. — David Newton
Stat to know: Against the Giants, the Buccaneers had four players score a rushing touchdown for the first time in franchise history.
Bold prediction: The Panthers will record their highest pass block win rate of the season. After winning a season-high 61.5% of pass blocks last week, I think they can set a better mark against a Buccaneers team that doesn’t scare you too much with its pass rush. — Walder
Injuries: Buccaneers | Panthers
Fantasy X factor: Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton. Tampa Bay’s running game led the way in its Week 12 win, but Otton should stay heavily involved in the passing game behind Evans. Before their Week 11 bye, Otton scored 18 or more fantasy points in three of his past four games. Now, he gets a Panthers defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to tight ends. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Panthers have covered three straight home games. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Buccaneers 35, Panthers 28
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 31, Panthers 20
Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 20
FPI prediction: TB, 68.7% (by an average of 7.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bucs came back ‘mentally tougher,’ ‘ready to play’ after bye … Panthers coach: Young will ‘absolutely’ start vs. Bucs
Field Yates explains why the Buccaneers’ defense could be an excellent streaming option going forward.
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BAL -3 (51.5 O/U)
Eagles storyline to watch: Running back Saquon Barkley has been on a tear. He’s coming off a career-best performance in which he set single-game career highs in rushing yards (255) and yards from scrimmage (302) against the Rams. With the performance, Barkley (1,392 rushing yards) took the lead over Derrick Henry (1,325) in the race for the rushing crown. This will be a smash-mouth matchup featuring the top two ground games in the NFL. — Tim McManus
Ravens storyline to watch: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has a 23-1 record against NFC opponents, which is the best by any quarterback in interconference games since the 1970 merger (minimum 15 starts). But he is facing perhaps his biggest challenge with the Eagles, who have won seven straight games. During its win streak, Philadelphia has held quarterbacks to 140.2 passing yards per game and 5.4 yards per pass attempt, both of which are the fewest in the NFL over that span. — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: This will be just the second instance since 1970 of two teams meeting in Week 13 or later who are averaging 180 rushing yards per game.
Bold prediction: The Eagles will hold Jackson to a QBR of under 55. Even if cornerback Darius Slay Jr. (concussion) isn’t able to play, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean should be able to hamper receivers Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert finished with only 5.9 fantasy points last week, as the Eagles didn’t need to pass thanks to Barkley’s 46.2-point performance. That should change against the Ravens in a high-scoring matchup. Baltimore’s defense allows the fourth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Ravens overs are 10-2, the highest over percentage in the NFL. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Eagles 30, Ravens 28
Moody’s pick: Eagles 27, Ravens 26
Walder’s pick: Eagles 28, Ravens 24
FPI prediction: BAL, 58.4% (by an average of 2.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Barkley runs for Eagles-record 255 yards in win vs. Rams … Ravens topple Chargers in Harbaugh brothers reunion
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: BUF -7 (44.5 O/U)
49ers storyline to watch: The 49ers haven’t lost three games in a row all season, but they enter this one in peril of doing just that and essentially putting any postseason hopes to rest. The Bills can clinch the AFC East with a win, and they’ve won all five home games this season while scoring 30-plus points in each contest. San Francisco is still banged up and will be traveling across the country after another lengthy flight to Green Bay last week, making this perhaps its most difficult challenge. — Nick Wagoner
Bills storyline to watch: Bills quarterback Josh Allen — a Firebaugh, California, native — will play the team he grew up cheering for. He will have a chance to continue to improve his candidacy for MVP in prime time against a 49ers defense that has forced only one turnover in the past three games and is tied for 20th in points allowed per game (23.6). — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The 49ers had 18 penalties in their past two games (both losses), which is tied for their most penalties in a two-game span over the past five seasons.
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Bold prediction: The Bills will hold running back Christian McCaffrey to fewer than four receptions. No team allows a lower percentage of targets (25%) to opposing running backs than the Bills. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Bills running back James Cook. Buffalo should rely heavily on its offensive line and running game due to potentially snowy weather, which bodes well for Cook. He scored 15 or more fantasy points in three of their past four games and had 15 or more touches in three of those matchups. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: This is the second straight game the 49ers have been underdogs after being favored in 36 straight regular-season games. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bills 34, 49ers 21
Moody’s pick: Bills 30, 49ers 23
Walder’s pick: Bills 27, 49ers 26
FPI prediction: BUF, 61.3% (by an average of 4.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: The 49ers’ road to the playoffs is murky: Is Sunday a must-win? … Bills’ quest for AFC East crown, No. 1 seed continues
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | ESPN BET: DEN -5.5 (41.5 O/U)
Browns storyline to watch: Wide receiver Jerry Jeudy returns to face the Broncos, who drafted him No. 15 overall in the 2020 draft, for the first time since Denver traded him to Cleveland in March after four inconsistent seasons. It was a trade Jeudy told ESPN he desired, and he has flourished over the past month, ranking 10th in receiving yards (379) since Week 8. However, Jeudy has a tough test against Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II, who has allowed 182 yards as the nearest defender, the second-fewest among cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps. — Daniel Oyefusi
Broncos storyline to watch: Broncos coach Sean Payton will have to scheme to protect rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is 18-7-1 against rookie QBs as a coordinator or head coach. His defense is fifth in the league in dropbacks that result in sacks at 8.8%. Payton has tried to up the tempo to halt opposing rushers, but he might have to run the ball more to give the Cleveland defensive front a reason to slow down on its way to the quarterback. In the win over Las Vegas last week, when the Raiders blitzed more than Payton expected, the Broncos ran just 16 times. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: The Browns have an NFL-worst 27% third-down conversion rate, which is their worst through 11 games since 1999 (25%).
Bold prediction: The Broncos will sack Jameis Winston six or more times. Winston’s 7% sack rate isn’t too bad, but the Broncos have the third-best pass rush win rate (47.6%) in the NFL, with defensive end Zach Allen leading the way. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Nix. The rookie is shining under coach Payton’s guidance, and it shows. Nix has scored 19 or more fantasy points in five of his past eight games, including two games with more than 28 points. This week, he faces a Browns defense that has given up the 12th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. That’s great news for Nix and his top target, Courtland Sutton. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Browns are 2-7 ATS in their past nine “Monday Night Football” games (1-3 ATS under coach Kevin Stefanski). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Broncos 28, Browns 24
Moody’s pick: Broncos 21, Browns 16
Walder’s pick: Broncos 23, Browns 17
FPI prediction: DEN, 51.8% (by an average of 0.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Breaking down the 2024 Browns roster … Sutton, Nix growing together for surging Broncos
Friday, 3 p.m. ET | Prime Video | ESPN BET: KC -12 (42.5 O/U)
Raiders storyline to watch: Quarterback Aidan O’Connell, coming off injured reserve after suffering a broken thumb on his throwing (right) hand in Week 7, will start against the Chiefs. “It’s felt pretty good the last few days throwing … to be able to go out there and grip the football and throw a little bit has been awesome,” he said Tuesday. O’Connell is the last quarterback to beat the Chiefs in Kansas City, even though he didn’t complete a pass after the first quarter of that 2023 Christmas Day game. — Paul Gutierrez
Chiefs storyline to watch: The Chiefs have faltered defensively after a strong start this season. Since Week 8, they rank last in opponent QBR (81.6) and preventing third-down conversions (58.6%). Are the Raiders strong enough offensively to take advantage without starting quarterback Gardner Minshew, who is out with a broken collarbone? The last time the Raiders lost by only one score was a 27-20 game against the Chiefs in Week 8. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: The Chiefs have a 58% chance to be the top seed in the AFC, per ESPN Analytics. Their chances would improve to 64% with a win and fall to 38% with a loss.
Bold prediction: Raiders tight end Brock Bowers will record 100-plus receiving yards. Bowers is in the mix for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, and 21% of Kansas City opponents’ targets go to tight ends, the third-highest rate in the league. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He scored 28.7 fantasy points against the Panthers last week, his best performance of the season. He put up 18.1 fantasy points the last time he faced Las Vegas on the road. At home, he has averaged 22.8 fantasy points per game against the Raiders as a starter. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 0-5 against the spread in their past five games, tied for their longest ATS losing streak in the coach Andy Reid era. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Chiefs 24, Raiders 17
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 34, Raiders 13
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 23, Raiders 20
FPI prediction: KC, 76.3% (by an average of 11.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: What are the Raiders’ chances at the No. 1 draft pick? … Chiefs want to keep things simple for new LT Humphries