Best bets for the six $1 million title fights
Credit to Author: Jeff Wagenheim and Ian Parker| Date: Wed, 27 Nov 2024 10:21:05 EST
The 2024 PFL season concludes on Friday afternoon in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, with playoff finals in each of the six weight classes.
All of the PFL World Championship fights at King Saud University Stadium will be on ESPN+, starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Among the 12 finalists are one defending champion (Impa Kasanganay, light heavyweight) and a champ from a previous season (Brendan Loughnane, featherweight in 2022). Two unbeatens, Shamil Musaev and Magomed Umalatov, meet in the welterweight finale, and there are two other undefeated fighters on the card (featherweight Timur Khizriev and women’s flyweight Dakota Ditcheva). There’s also a former Bellator champion, lightweight Brent Primus, and a onetime UFC title challenger, flyweight Taila Santos.
ESPN betting expert Ian Parker breaks down the six championship fights and offers betting guidance, and Jeff Wagenheim lays out the fight card’s storylines, starting with the day’s first fight and going through the card.
Denis Goltsov throws a flurry of heavy punches to grab TKO win over Tim Johnson and head to the PFL World Championship.
Heavyweight championship: Denis Goltsov vs. Oleg Popov
It might be wishful thinking to project that this one ends quickly, because heavyweight bouts that extend beyond a round or so can make you think your TV has switched into slo-mo. But Goltsov (35-8) is a fast worker. He has won eight of his last nine fights, and six of those wins were by first-round finish. Popov (19-1) is resilient — the one loss in his career was not by finish — but he’ll be pushed from the opening bell.
Parker’s best bets: Over 1.5 rounds; fight does not go the distance. Is this the year Goltsov finally gets to the finish line? To do that, he needs to land a KO early on Popov. Otherwise, he will be in a grueling wrestling match against someone who doesn’t get tired. I think Popov’s durability and wrestling ability will keep Golstov at bay and have this fight go deeper than expected. I don’t see it going all five rounds, though. If over 1.5 is being offered, I would lean into that play.
Lightweight championship: Brent Primus vs. Gadzhi Rabadanov
More than half of Primus’ victories have been by submission — eight tapouts among 15 wins. The former Bellator champion (15-3) clearly feels comfortable on the canvas, and so does Rabadanov (23-4-2). The Dagestani had to develop that comfort to survive in the vaunted Makhachkala gym of Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov, where Rabadanov trained among wrestling elites. Of course, sometimes wrestling can be used to prevent a fight from getting to the canvas.
Parker’s best bet: Rabadanov to win by KO/TKO. Primus has finished all of his opponents thus far in the PFL season, but I believe that streak will end in the final. Primus is a fantastic grappler, but he tends to gas as the fight goes on. And against Rabadanov, I think he will struggle early to get the fight to the floor. Look for Rabadanov to keep the fight on the feet and get the knockout in the later rounds.
Welterweight championship: Shamil Musaev vs. Magomed Umalatov
The exclamation above does not suggest that this bout will bring horrifying disappointment. It’s not an “oh” at all, just a word that sounds like it: “0,” as in zero. Musaev is 19-0-1, and Umalatov is 17-0. A matchup between two fighters with zero losses means that, barring a draw (which would be an “oh, no!”), someone is going to end the night with no “0” in his record.
Parker’s best bet: Over 3.5 rounds; Musaev by decision. This will come down to whether Umalatov can utilize his wrestling in the first three rounds. If he can, his +200 odds as an underdog is extremely appetizing. However, I think Musaev will defend takedowns and win the striking battle on the feet. Look to take the over or Musaev by decision to get a better price on this fight.
Impa Kasnganay earns six points in the PFL Light Heavyweight standings with a quick win over Alex Polizzi.
Light heavyweight championship: Impa Kasanganay vs. Dovlet Yagshimuradov
Kasanganay (18-4), the one defending champion among the dozen finalists, won two of his three fights this season by knockout. But over his career, he has had as many decisions as finishes. Yagshimuradov (24-7-1) is the opposite. He has had 13 knockouts and four submissions in his 24-win career, but most of his recent fights — four of his last five — have gone the distance. Will this one end up in the hands of the judges, or will someone land something game-changing?
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Parker’s best bet: Yagshimuradov to win (+140). With his semifinal win against 2022 champion Rob Wilkinson, Yagshimuradov proved why he is a dark horse who should be taken seriously. He has excellent wrestling, good cardio and is an absolute powerhouse on the feet. If he can stay off his back, I think his power may get the best of Kasanganay. The 2023 champ has unlimited cardio, which can be a problem for any opponent, but he has been caught on the feet in all three of his fights this season. Against Jakob Nedoh in June, he was almost out on his feet and needed a miraculous come-from-behind KO victory to make the playoffs. If he gets caught by Yagshimuradov, I don’t think Kasanganay will be able to come back.
Dakota Ditcheva defeats Jena Bishop in Round 1 with a TKO to head to the PFL World Championship.
Women’s flyweight championship: Dakota Ditcheva vs. Taila Santos
Ditcheva could emerge from Friday as a star. The word “could” is double-edged, of course, because it leaves space for the potential to not be reached. But Ditcheva (13-0) has not simply defeated all who’ve faced her, she’s dominated every one of them, with first-round finishes in all but one of her eight PFL appearances. She’s never been tested, though, as she will be by Santos (22-3), who just two years ago challenged Valentina Shevchenko for the UFC title. This fight should tell us a lot about what’s ahead for Ditcheva.
Parker’s best bet: Santos to win (+280). Ditcheva has been flawless this season, and with one more victory she could be the next big star in women’s MMA. Standing in her way is her toughest challenge to date. On the feet, you have to lean Ditcheva’s way, but I wouldn’t say by much as she hasn’t fought the same level of competition as Santos has. On the ground, Santos has a major advantage and would be wise to get the fight there to take the path of least resistance. As incredible as Ditcheva has been — and I believe she will be a star someday, win or lose — at +280 I am taking Santos. She is more than capable of competing on the feet, and if she can impose her will with wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Santos can steal rounds and potentially submit the blue-chip prospect.
Brendan Loughnane wins the main event of PFL 6 after Justin Gonzales opens up a massive cut on his forehead.
Featherweight championship: Brendan Loughnane vs. Timur Khizriev
Honestly, the Ditcheva-Santos bout is the most likely to ignite those fireworks, but we can’t just dwell on that one again and again, can we? And the PFL has slotted this fight as the main event for a reason. Loughnane (30-5), the 2022 season champion, has knockouts in more than half of his wins (17). Adding Khizriev to that list of conquests is a tough task, as he is 17-0 and does not leave a lot of openings. Let’s see how Loughnane closes the show.
Parker’s best bet: Over 4.5 rounds. Loughnane absolutely has to keep this fight on the feet and avoid the suffocating grappling of Khizriev. If he can turn this into a kickboxing fight, he gives himself a good chance to win. However, that is easier said than done when you are facing a talented grappler. Both men are extremely durable and high-IQ fighters, so I expect this fight to be competitive from bell to bell. Whoever wins, I believe it will be by decision, so take the over. If that number is too pricey, take the fight to go the distance for a better number.