The cold, hard numbers behind Kylian Mbappé’s malaise at Real Madrid
Credit to Author: Alex Kirkland| Date: Tue, 26 Nov 2024 19:00:12 EST
Kylian Mbappe has failed to match the huge expectations of him after making his dream Real Madrid move. (2:35)
0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1: Those are Kylian Mbappé‘s last eight Real Madrid games, and the goals he’s scored in that time. It’s his worst goal-scoring run at club level since 2021, and it’s a streak that has some impatient Madrid fans asking: is this what all the fuss was about?
Mbappé’s signing last summer was Madrid’s most high-profile arrival since Cristiano Ronaldo, 15 years earlier, with over 70,000 fans packing the Bernabéu to welcome him. This was a ready-made superstar, approaching his peak, flying in from Paris Saint-Germain as a free agent to take the Spanish and European champions to the next level.
At least, that was the idea: Mbappé would make a good team even better, scoring hatfuls of goals as Madrid strolled to another league title. Instead, Mbappé is a third of the way through his first season at Real Madrid — and approaching Wednesday’s trip to Anfield, to face Liverpool — facing the kind of doubts he’s never had to contend with before.
In coach Carlo Ancelotti’s news conference ahead of Sunday’s LaLiga game at Leganés, five of the 13 questions were about Mbappé. Journalists asked about his positioning on the pitch, his involvement in training and even, irresponsibly, speculated about his mental health.
Mbappé’s omission from the past two France squads has only intensified the scrutiny. National team coach Didier Deschamps implored the media to “leave [Mbappé] alone” earlier this month, but his vague explanations for his team captain’s absence didn’t help; he said that Mbappé wanted to play, but he had decided otherwise.
Rightly so, Ancelotti has said “it’s just a matter of time” before Mbappé comes good. A goal in Sunday’s 3-0 win at Leganés, from a new role on the left side of attack, was a step in the right direction ad a timely one before they play Liverpool in the Champions League. Madrid could do with a win at Anfield, having lost two of their first four matches in the Champions League’s new league phase. Mbappé could do with a statement performance in order to silence his critics.
Ahead of that game, we take a look at Mbappé’s stats this season to assess how he’s underperformed, and if there are sufficient reasons to believe his poor early-season form might just be a blip.
Forget all the other statistics, at least for a moment, because Mbappé’s success or failure at Real Madrid will be determined by how many goals he scores. Last season, Jude Bellingham (19) and Vinícius Júnior (15) top scored for Madrid in LaLiga. Outdoing them would be the bare minimum, but if Mbappé comfortably tops those tallies — let’s say with 25-30 goals, as he did in his last four seasons at PSG — complaints about his work rate, or how often he was caught offside, will soon be forgotten.
To date, Mbappé has nine goals in 17 Real Madrid appearances in all competitions, and seven in 12 in LaLiga. That makes him Madrid’s second-highest scorer behind Vinícius, who has 12 in all competitions and eight in LaLiga. Crucially, while Vinícius is outperforming his expected goals (xG), converting more chances than you’d expect, Mbappé is doing the opposite. His seven league goals have come at an xG of 8.83. In the Champions League, it’s even worse, scoring once in four games, with an xG of 2.68.
Mbappé’s finishing isn’t usually this wayward. At PSG, he overperformed his xG in six consecutive Ligue 1 seasons from 2018 to 2024. Whether it’s down to nerves, a desire to impress, his positioning, the opposition or other less tangible factors, he isn’t being so clinical now and his shot numbers back up that assessment. In 12 LaLiga games, Mbappé has taken 57 shots, the most of any player in Spain’s top flight. In Europe’s top five leagues, only Manchester City’s Erling Haaland (62) has taken more. LaLiga’s top scorer with 15 goals, Barcelona‘s Robert Lewandowski, has taken 10 fewer shots than Mbappé in two more games.
Of Mbappé’s 57 shots, just 27 have been on target, a hit rate of 47.4%. That puts Mbappé 125th among the 461 forwards in Europe’s top five leagues who’ve played five or more games, in terms of his shot percentage on target. In LaLiga alone, 21 forwards have been more accurate in their shooting than Mbappé this season, including Celta Vigo‘s Borja Iglesias (58.8%), Lewandowski (57.4%) and Real Betis‘ Vitor Roque (55.6%).
Given those high-volume figures, Mbappé’s conversion rate of shots to goals is, naturally poor, at 12.3%. That makes Mbappé LaLiga’s 48th-deadliest forward this season, and 230th among forwards in Europe’s top five leagues. To put that into context, Atlético Madrid‘s Alexander Sørloth — who hasn’t looked a consistent finisher this season — has a better conversion rate (17.9%). Lewandowski’s is an impressive 31.9%. Elsewhere, Haaland’s is 19.4%, Chelsea‘s Nicolas Jackson is on 25% and Harry Kane is on 30.4% at Bayern Munich.
It’s not as if Mbappé is regularly shooting from distance, either. Fully 84.2% of his shots have been taken inside the box, with 73.7% of them on his favoured right foot. But getting into goal-scoring positions hasn’t always been straightforward. Mbappé’s timing of his runs has been off, most notably in October’s 4-0 Clásico defeat to Barcelona when he matched an unwanted record, being caught offside eight times. It was a career high, and the joint-highest figure recorded by a LaLiga player in the past 15 years.
Of course, being Real Madrid’s centre-forward isn’t just about scoring goals. Mbappé’s predecessor in Madrid’s No. 9 shirt was Karim Benzema, a player who built his reputation on selfless combination play and raised the bar for what we can reasonably expect in the position. And Mbappé isn’t Benzema.
This season, Mbappé has created a respectable 13 chances — a stat that combines key passes and assists — in LaLiga. That compares with 44 from Barcelona’s Raphinha, an early candidate for player of the season. Madrid teammate Vinícius has created 29 chances, more than twice as many as Mbappé. Antoine Griezmann and Lamine Yamal have both created 26. In total, 14 LaLiga forwards — of 127 who’ve played at least one minute this season — have created more chances than Mbappé. When we narrow our focus to “big chances created” for teammates — defined as situations where a player should reasonably be expected to score — Mbappé has just two in LaLiga. That’s far behind Raphinha with 14, Yamal with 12 and Griezmann and Vinícius with seven.
Mbappé’s passing statistics are strong, reflecting Madrid’s dominance of possession in all but two of their games this season. He has completed 300 of 351 passes attempted in LaLiga, with a completion rate of 85.5%; only five LaLiga forwards have completed more. When we look at a more useful statistic, progressive passes — passes that move the ball forward 10+ yards or into the penalty area — he has played 51, behind only Griezmann, Iago Aspas, Yamal and Raphinha, though completing just 17% of them, ranking 23rd among LaLiga forwards in that category.
More than passing, one of Mbappé’s great strengths has always been his ability to burst forward with the ball at his feet. In LaLiga this season, he has registered 113 progressive carries (defined as when a player moves the ball at least five metres towards goal) in the opposition half. Only four players — Vinícius, Real Betis’ Abde Ezzalzouli, Yamal and Athletic Club‘s Nico Williams — have more.
It’s easy — and probably unfair — to laugh at some of Mbappé’s more eye-opening defensive statistics this season; just try to keep a straight face.
In 12 LaLiga games, he has made one tackle. In 1,025 minutes on the field, he has made no clearances, made no interceptions, and blocked no shots. He has won only three aerial duels. He’s recovered the ball just 17 times, compared to Raphinha’s 45, Yamal’s 44, and teammate Vinícius’ 31. If we add up the number of Mbappé’s “total defensive interventions” — effectively, all of the categories above combined — he has made 18 in LaLiga this season, which puts him 78th among the league’s 127 forwards. His 18 defensive interventions compare with 80 for Raphinha, 62 for Griezmann, and 56 for Lewandowski.
Dan Thomas is joined by Craig Burley, Shaka Hislop and others to bring you the latest highlights and debate the biggest storylines. Stream on ESPN+ (U.S. only).
It’s unsurprising, then, that one consistent and growing criticism of Mbappé has been around his contributions when Madrid are out of possession. A consistent stream of screenshots and video clips have been shared on social media, showing Mbappé ambling back towards his goal, as teammates race to deal with another opposition attack.
Mbappé has put pressure on an opposing player who is in possession 49 times this season. That ranks him 52nd among LaLiga forwards in terms of pressing; of those, 31 came at what’s classed as “high intensity,” and just four of them resulted in Madrid winning the ball back. That compares to Vinícius’ 140 pressures — over three times as many — of which 106 were at high intensity, leading to 46 recoveries. Even Lewandowski, at the age of 36, outdoes Mbappé here, with 70 pressures, and 18 resulting recoveries.
Besides Mbappé’s individual stats, there is also a perception that his unwillingness to track back has been contagious and affected the team as a whole. He and Vinícius are two of the three forwards, along with Celta’s Aspas, who have spent the most time walking in LaLiga this season. Mbappé has spent 76% of his time on the pitch walking or jogging, although he’s also registered 35 sprints per game, which ranks him 22nd among LaLiga forwards, closer to where you’d expect to find a player of such explosive physicality.
Mbappé’s performance against Leganés on Sunday wasn’t spectacular. He played 83 minutes at Butarque, scoring once, and had another goal disallowed for offside. His goal — a straightforward, close-range tap-in — came from a Vinícius pass, the first time he has provided an assist for Mbappé in LaLiga this season. And it came from a new role, at least with Madrid, as Mbappé started on the left-hand side of the attack, with Vinícius through the middle.
It’s a positional switch Ancelotti had previously dismissed as unlikely given Vinícius’ world-class effectiveness on the left. The coach pointed to the Brazil star’s fatigue after the international break to explain it this time, saying playing as a winger is more tiring, and Mbappé was fresher than his teammate. Maybe we should take Ancelotti at his word, or maybe it was an excuse to justify finally putting Mbappé in the role where he’s played his best football.
“I started in a different position,” Mbappé said after the game. “But as I said the first day I arrived here, I can play in different positions … It’s the story of my career. I can play on the right, on the left, as a front two. I don’t mind. What I want to do is play well, help the team and score goals.”
With Vinícius now injured for three to four weeks and unavailable to travel to Anfield, there’ll be even more pressure on Mbappé to deliver exactly that against Liverpool.