Five bets to make on the red-hot Golden State Warriors
Credit to Author: André Snellings| Date: Tue, 12 Nov 2024 12:56:29 EST
The Splash Brothers era was a magical one for the Golden State Warriors.
When Klay Thompson and Draymond Green were drafted to join Stephen Curry, pairing arguably the two best shooters in NBA history with one of the best defenders, the Warriors had the nucleus for four championships and five Finals appearances in an eight-year span. They won their last championship in 2022, and this offseason Thompson left to join the Dallas Mavericks. His exit marked the end of the Warriors’ dynasty for this generation.
Or did it?
Thompson will return to his old stomping grounds Tuesday night as a key member of the Mavericks, last season’s Western Conference champions and NBA finalists. But when the game tips off, it will be the Warriors who sit at the top of the West.
Winners of eight of their first 10 games, including recent road wins over the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder, the Warriors are playing the same style of basketball from the Splash Brothers heyday, but doing it without Thompson.
Is this Dubs resurgence real? If so, what does that mean for their futures betting prospects?
Let’s explore.
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The Warriors rank second in the NBA in team offensive rating through the first 10 games of the season, with 120.1 points scored per 100 possessions. When you look deeper, their offensive efficiency is built strongly upon their 3-point shooting volume and efficiency: they are eighth in the NBA in 3-point attempt rate (e.g. percentage of their shots that are 3-pointers) and seventh in true shooting percentage (e.g. a measure of scoring efficiency, weighted for 3-pointers and free throws made) but 26th in free throws attempted per field goal attempt.
This indicates that their offense is scoring at high efficiency because they’re taking, and making, a lot of 3-pointers and not because they’re drawing a lot of fouls.
It’s relatively unusual in today’s NBA for an offense to be efficient as a unit without shooting a lot of free throws, but it’s not unheard of. In fact, it’s been staple for the Warriors over the years they have been contenders. In 2021-22, the last year they won the NBA Finals, Golden State ranked second in the NBA in 3Par and fourth in the NBA in TS% but 22nd in FT/FGA. Almost carbon-copy to how they’re playing this season.
And when you look at the team breakdown, their 3-point dominance is clear. The Warriors have six players knocking down at least 1.4 3-pointers per game on at least 37.9 3P%, led by Buddy Hield (4.0 3PG, 48.8 3P%) and Curry (3.9 3PG, 43.5 3P%), but also including De’Anthony Melton (2.2 3PG, 37.9 3P%), Andrew Wiggins (2.0 3PG, 41.0 3P%), Moses Moody (1.9 3PG, 46.3 3P%) and Green (1.4 3PG, 45.2 3P%).
But here’s the thing. While some of those shooting percentages are just a tick above normal, none are out of the realm of realistic possibility. Even Green, who has only made 32.1% of his 3-pointers for his career, made his leap as a shooter last season when he made 39.5% from behind the arc. Moody was drafted to be a 3-point specialist and defender, and has been a consistent shooter in the upper-30s from behind the arc. Wiggins had a multi-year run making 2.2 3PG on almost 40% in his first three seasons with the Warriors and seems to be bouncing back after a down 2023-24 season, and Melton has averaged 1.9 3PG on 38.3 3P% over the four seasons leading up to this one.
There could be some slight regression among the group over time, but this group has the pedigree to be an elite 3-point shooting team in a scheme that emphasizes getting good looks from downtown.
The crown jewels in the Warriors’ 3-point crown have always been the Splash Brothers. And this season, Hield is playing the role that Thompson built for the Warriors… and he’s playing it to the hilt.
Hield is uniquely qualified to be the shooting-guard complement to Curry from behind the arc at a rate similar to Thompson. Since the 2018-19 season, Hield has averaged 3.4 3PG on 39.8 3P%, eerily similar to the 3.3 3PG on 42.0 3P% Thompson shot during the Warriors’ championship run between 2014-15 and 2021-22.
And Hield has never played in an offense designed to be as efficient from deep as the Warriors, or next to the biggest perimeter gravity-wielder in the NBA in Curry. This season, Hield is getting a ton of the shots he likes the most, and they’re more open than ever, so it’s not all that surprising that he’s knocking them down at an even higher clip than his already elite career norm.
That said, all indicators are that the Warriors’ 3-point shooting and scoring efficiency could be real and sustainable.
The other strong measure of success for this team is their defense, where they rank fourth in the NBA in team Defensive Rating with only 108.3 points allowed per 100 possessions.
A dive into their Defensive Four Factors shows they are second in the league in effective field goal percentage allowed and 10th in turnover rate, but bottom-10 in the league in both defensive rebound rate and free throws allowed per field goal attempt.
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This also tracks with the successful defenses in the Draymond Green era; in 2021-22 they led the NBA in team defensive rating, were second in EFG% allowed and seventh in TOV%. And when you look at the perimeter defenders on this Warriors team, with scrappers like Melton and Brandin Podziemski on the perimeter around Green, this team defensive effort seems sustainable as well.
So, if the team’s offensive efficiency and defensive effectiveness seem sustainable, then the team’s overall success could be as well if health permits. While Curry and Green are both in their mid-30s, which increases injury likelihood, Steve Kerr has famously been running a 12-man rotation. In fact, 13 Warriors are averaging between 12.3 and 28.3 MPG, and this could also help keep the players fresher and less likely to get hurt over the marathon of the season.
Buddy Hield to win Sixth Man of the Year (+550)
Hield is coming off the bench the way Thompson did at the end of his time with Golden State, averaging 18.0 PPG in 24.9 MPG. Per ESPN BET, he has the second-shortest odds for Sixth Man of the Year award, behind Boston’s Payton Pritchard (+245) and ahead of Bennedict Mathurin (+650).
Mathurin has started the last five games, which could eventually take him out of the 6MoY race. Pritchard has been excellent, but the Warriors contending is much more unexpected than the Celtics, so if Hield keeps playing well and the Dubs keep winning he would be strong value to win 6MoY.
Draymond Green to win Defensive Player of the Year (+3000)
Green is worth keeping an eye on with these odds to win Defensive Player of the Year for the second time. Green is the brand name of the Warriors defense, and if they remain a top-5 unit to support one of the best records in the NBA he could move ahead of most of the players in front of him based on name recognition and surprising team results alone.
Steve Kerr to win NBA Coach of the Year (+750)
Kerr is a value in this race at these odds, the third-shortest behind Cleveland’s Kenny Atkinson (+170) and Phoenix’s Mike Budenholzer (+700). All three are leading teams playing surprisingly well, but Kerr has the longest odds and thus the most juice to win for the trio.
Kerr’s and Budenholzer’s candidacies will likely mirror their team results, much like how last year’s race ultimately swung on whether the Thunder or Timberwolves won the West (The Thunder did, so Mark Daigneault beat out Chris Finch). If the Warriors remain in the race to win the West, and can get/stay ahead of Budenholzer’s Suns, then Kerr will remain a contender for Coach of the Year.
Warriors to surpass 50.5 regular season wins (-130)
For those that like more conservative futures, the Warriors are strong value to surpass 50.5 regular season wins. Just look to history. Since the 2013-14 season, in every full-length season (e.g. not shortened campaigns in 2019-20 or 2020-21) where the Warriors finished in the top-five in either team Offensive Rating or Team Defensive raging, they have averaged 54.8 wins in four different seasons with at least 51 wins in each campaign.
The three times in that era they’ve been in the top-five in both team ORTG and DRTG, they have averaged 69 wins per season with at least 67 wins all three times.
Warriors to win the Pacific Division (+185)
This history also supports the Warriors’ bid to win the Pacific Division, whose champion has averaged only 48.5 wins in the last two seasons. At the moment, the Warriors’ biggest competition for the division is the Suns, which also sport an 8-2 record. But the Warriors have much better secondary indications of team caliber, outscoring their opponents by 11.9 PPG (second in West to the Thunder’s +12.2 PPG) versus the Suns’ +2.1 PPG net rating.
The Suns also have an unfortunate injury history with their three star players, and Kevin Durant is currently sidelined for at least two weeks with a calf injury. The Warriors’ long bench helped them remain successful even in the three games Curry sat, winning all three contests.