Heisman Trophy odds watch: Hunter, Gabriel lead entering Week 12
Credit to Author: Pamela Maldonado| Date: Tue, 12 Nov 2024 10:18:25 EST
Travis Hunter weaves his way through defenders for a 24-yard touchdown, extending Colorado’s lead to 31-20. (0:23)
As the 2024 college football season enters its final stretch, the Heisman Trophy race appears to be solidifying around four standout contenders.
Colorado’s two-way phenom Travis Hunter has returned as the front-runner, dazzling fans and voters alike with his skills on both offense and defense. Oregon’s quarterback Dillon Gabriel remains in hot pursuit, keeping the Ducks’ national championship hopes alive. Miami’s Cam Ward, despite a recent setback, continues to impress with his prolific passing, while Boise State’s running back Ashton Jeanty has remained in contention with his record-chasing rushing performances.
Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke has made a surprising late-season surge, catapulting himself into the conversation, at least as it relates to betting. As Week 12 looms, these five players have distinguished themselves from the pack, each bringing a unique narrative to the Heisman race and setting the stage for an electrifying conclusion to the season.
All odds are accurate as of timestamp. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
Last week: +225
Hunter is back as the +125 favorite. In Colorado’s 41-27 road win against Texas Tech, he showcased his unique two-way abilities. On offense, Hunter caught nine passes for 99 yards and a touchdown. Defensively, he played 53 snaps and was only targeted once, demonstrating his lockdown coverage skills. While Hunter didn’t record an official interception, he did make a spectacular interception that was unfortunately nullified.
Why Hunter is the favorite: Hunter’s Heisman candidacy is propelled by his unprecedented two-way brilliance in modern college football. As both an elite wide receiver and cornerback, Hunter has amassed impressive statistics on both sides of the ball: 69 receptions for 856 yards and nine touchdowns offensively, complemented by two interceptions, one forced fumble, seven passes defended, and 20 tackles defensively. This dual-threat capability sets him apart in a field typically dominated by quarterbacks.
Hunter’s impact extends beyond individual statistics, playing a crucial role in Colorado’s resurgence. With a 7-2 record and a shot at the Big 12 championship game, the Buffaloes’ success is inextricably linked to Hunter’s versatile contributions. His unique skill set aligns perfectly with the Heisman’s mission to recognize college football’s most outstanding player.
Adding weight to Hunter’s campaign is the endorsement of his head coach, Deion Sanders, a former two-way player himself, who has dubbed Hunter “the best player in college football.” In a season when quarterback performances have been less dominant, voters may be more inclined to consider nontraditional candidates like Hunter.
Last week: +275
Gabriel has solidified his position as the second favorite entering Week 12. He had a historic outing in Oregon’s 39-18 victory over Maryland, breaking the FBS all-time record for total touchdowns previously held by Case Keenum with 179. Although his Week 11 stats were not that impressive, 23-of-34 for 184 yards and three touchdowns, his record-breaking touchdown came on a 3-yard pass to offensive lineman Gernorris Wilson in the third quarter.
Why Gabriel could win: Gabriel’s Heisman case is built on a foundation of record-breaking performances and consistent excellence. His new FBS record for career touchdowns underscores his productivity throughout his six years of college experience. At the helm of Oregon’s undefeated 10-0 campaign, Gabriel has kept the Ducks in prime position for both a College Football Playoff berth and a potential Big Ten championship.
Gabriel leads the FBS with a 74% completion rate while topping the Big Ten in passing yards (2,848) and touchdowns (22). His versatility is complemented by six rushing scores this season, showcasing his dual-threat capabilities. His go-ahead touchdown run against Ohio State provided the quintessential “Heisman moment” that often sways voters.
Gabriel’s performance in Oregon’s victory over Boise State gives him a direct edge over fellow Heisman contender Ashton Jeanty. This head-to-head advantage, combined with his statistical output and team success, solidifies Gabriel’s position as a top Heisman candidate in a highly competitive race.
Last week: +600
Jeanty enters Week 12 as the third favorite to win the Heisman. Jeanty had another impressive outing in Week 11, rushing for 209 yards and three touchdowns on 34 carries, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt.
Why Jeanty could win: Jeanty’s Heisman case is built on his consistent high-volume production. Leading the FBS with 1,734 rushing yards, Jeanty has outpaced his nearest competitor by 400 yards. His 23 rushing touchdowns puts him on track to potentially reach 32 by season’s end, a feat achieved by only five players in college football history.
His consistency is highlighted by multiple 200-plus yard rushing performances, including standout games of 259, 267, and 217 yards. He has excelled against top-tier competition, notably rushing for 192 yards and three touchdowns against No. 1 Oregon earlier in the season.
His impact is undeniable, acting as a key cog in Boise State’s 8-1 record (5-0 in conference) and their contention for the Mountain West title. While comparisons to Barry Sanders’ legendary 1988 season have been drawn, Jeanty’s performance stands impressively on its own merits.
If he can maintain his current pace and deliver standout performances in Boise State’s remaining games, Jeanty could make a compelling case to become the first non-Power Five player to win the Heisman since BYU’s Ty Detmer in 1990.
Last week: +185
Ward dropped to the fourth spot after leading the odds last week. In Miami’s 28-23 upset loss to Georgia Tech, Ward threw for 348 yards and three touchdowns along with three sacks. He led a late comeback attempt, bringing Miami within five points in the fourth quarter. However, the game ended with a strip-sack on Ward during Miami’s final drive.
Why Ward could win: Despite a setback in Week 11, Ward’s Heisman candidacy remains viable due to his impressive season-long output: 3,494 passing yards (1st FBS), 32 touchdowns (1st FBS) and only six interceptions.
Prior to the recent loss, Ward had guided Miami to an undefeated record and a No. 4 ranking, keeping them in the College Football Playoff conversation. With a relatively manageable schedule ahead, facing Wake Forest and Syracuse, Ward has the opportunity to bolster his case with strong performances in these final regular-season games.
An ACC championship would significantly enhance Ward’s Heisman prospects, as well. With the expanded 12-team playoff format, Miami’s CFP chances remain alive, potentially keeping Ward in the national spotlight.
Although his path to the Heisman has undoubtedly become more challenging, his overall body of work and the potential for a strong finish keep him in contention.
Last week: +3000
Rourke’s odds keep dropping each week, pushing him closer into the Heisman conversation from a betting perspective. In Indiana’s 20-15 victory over Michigan, Rourke threw for two touchdowns in the first half, helping Indiana build a lead. He finished the game completing 17-of-28 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns.
Why Rourke has a chance to enter the Heisman conversation: Rourke’s Heisman prospects have surged in part due to Indiana’s unprecedented success. With 2,410 passing yards (22nd) and 21 touchdowns (12th), Rourke’s efficiency is particularly noteworthy — his 10.1 yards per attempt ranks second nationally. This production has been instrumental in guiding Indiana to a historic 10-0 record, the best in program history.
Rourke’s odds skyrocketing from +10000 two weeks ago to +1500 now, highlights his momentum in the Heisman race. His narrative as the leader of a historically underperforming program now experiencing a breakout season is particularly compelling to voters.
A victory over Ohio State and a potential Big Ten Championship appearance could solidify Rourke as a serious contender. His rapid rise in the odds reflects growing sentiment that he could be this year’s long shot candidate.
Back Indiana ATS against Ohio State
Holding a Hunter and/or Jeanty ticket from early in the season, combined with Gabriel from last week if you entered Week 11 with no skin in the game, adding Rourke would be the intriguing option. However, at this stage of the season, the Heisman Trophy race appears to have solidified around four top contenders: Hunter, Gabriel, Ward, and Jeanty.
While Rourke’s performance has been inspiring, the real storyline is Indiana’s unexpected success as a team, rather than Rourke’s individual achievements. Rourke is undoubtedly leading the offense effectively, but the Hoosiers’ defense has been a huge contributing factor to their success (fourth in yards allowed and eight in points allowed), making this a true team effort.
For those looking to capitalize on Indiana’s surprising season, a more promising wager might be backing the Hoosiers as underdogs against Ohio State in Week 13, both against the spread and on the money line.
Current projected Week 13 line per ESPN Research: Indiana +9 (+275) at Ohio State.
This approach acknowledges the team’s overall performance and potential for an upset, rather than focusing solely on Rourke’s Heisman chances. Indiana’s success is a testament to their collective effort and coaching, making them an intriguing underdog pick in their upcoming high-profile matchup.