How to win while rostering Joel Embiid
Credit to Author: Eric Moody| Date: Fri, 8 Nov 2024 08:51:07 EST
It’s no surprise that the Philadelphia 76ers are being cautious with Joel Embiid after signing him to a three-year, $193 million extension. Embiid’s in elite company; during the past three seasons, he’s averaged at least 30 points and 10 rebounds per game. Only six other players in NBA history have had multiple seasons with such numbers.
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But ahead of this season, to the frustration of fantasy basketball managers everywhere, Embiid said in an interview that he may never again play in back-to-back games as the team tries to keep him healthy. The 76ers haven’t reached the Conference Finals since 2001, and while fantasy managers who selected Embiid with an early draft pick may be frustrated, none of this is shocking.
Embiid has missed 204 of 637 possible games during the past eight seasons, not counting his first two season, which were entirely lost to injury. He has never played in more than 68 regular season games in any of his eight season. Last season he played 39.
So, let’s all take a deep breath, think logically about Embiid, the 76ers, and how you should handle things from a fantasy perspective once he makes his season debut — that is expected to come on Tuesday against the Knicks, following his three-game suspension.
Even when Embiid is back on the court, we know he’ll miss plenty of more games this season. The 76ers have 15 more back-to-backs on the schedule, for one, and history shows that there’s also a likelihood that the star center will miss more games due to various injuries and ailments, which are somewhat unavoidable for a 30-year-old 7-footer in the NBA. We also know that the 76ers are a different team without Embiid, relying on a different cast to make up for the glaring 30+ points, 10+ rebounds and 1.5+ blocks missing from the lineup. The good news is you can plan accordingly.
Embiid obviously brings a ton of scoring and rebounding to the 76ers, but there’s one part of his game that often gets overlooked: his free-throw production. Despite missing time over the past four seasons, Embiid leads the league with 2,185 free throws made from 2020-2024, making him the only player with more than 2,000 in that span.
Why does that matter?
Players who get to the line consistently give their teams easy, reliable points, slow the game down and put opponents in foul trouble. That’s a massive advantage, especially in close games, where it wears down defenses and creates more scoring opportunities. Last season, the 76ers were 31-8 with Embiid on the court but struggled at 16-27 without him. Philadelphia’s points per game (109.1) dropped when he was out, while opponents’ points went up (112.7) — a tough gap to make up.
Tyrese Maxey has stepped up over the last few seasons, averaging 26.3 PPG when Embiid sits. He also adds a few rebounds and assists per game, however in the short term Maxey will be out of the lineup; a hamstring injury in Wednesday’s loss to the LA Clippers is expected to keep him out several weeks. Until he returns, keep an eye on Jared McCain, Kyle Lowry and Reggie Jackson for increased minutes.
There are two other players available in many ESPN leagues who could see a big boost whenever Embiid misses time: Andre Drummond and Kelly Oubre Jr.
During his stint with the Bulls last year, Drummond (20.7% rostered) put up 14.1 PPG and 17.9 RPG in 10 starts and, for the season, averaged 19.6 points and 21.0 rebounds per 40 minutes. Still only 31, the 13-year pro still has some gas left in the tank. Having him on your roster in addition to Embiid is a savvy strategy if you can make it work; play Embiid when he’s available, turn to Drummond whenever Embiid missed time, just like the Sixers will.
Meanwhile, Oubre (38.6% rostered) averaged 17.1 PPG in 37 games without Embiid last season, compared to 13.4 PPG when he played. The veteran swingman’s scoring presence will be even more important in the near term while Maxey is out.
Some fantasy managers might be tempted to deal Embiid, and that’s understandable. It’s been a frustrating start to the season. But anyone who drafted him knew the risk that came with the decision. This is all part of the ride when you have Embiid on your roster. Plus, everyone knows about the 76ers’ load management strategy, so his trade value has likely dropped.
Rather than settling for less, consider holding onto the star big man. Last season, Embiid recorded 26 games with 30+ points and 10+ rebounds, tying Nikola Jokic for second-most in the league. And even if his minutes are scaled back this season, a possibility with a capable veteran like Drummond on the roster, Embiid’s value remains high. He scored 1.03 points per minute last season, making him the only player to reach this since Wilt Chamberlain in 1961-62.
Still want to trade him?
If you do find yourself in a position where you’re willing to trade Embiid at a discount, possibly out of necessity, offering a deal for another struggling star such as Tyrese Haliburton or Anthony Edwards is one potential option. This is particularly effective if that star is a better fit for your roster, or if another league manager is just as frustrated by their underwhelming first-rounder as you are with Embiid.
Another option, which rarely works out well in fantasy sports, is trading the star power that Embiid offers for quality depth, getting two solid players back in return. Possible targets in that type of scenario might include some mix of Jordan Poole, Jarrett Allen, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic and Buddy Hield, just to name a few.