Facts vs. Feelings: Week 10 roster-setting time
Credit to Author: Liz Loza| Date: Wed, 6 Nov 2024 11:26:02 EST
Liz Loza breaks down Kendrick Bourne’s increased fantasy value since Week 5 and how he may fare moving forward. (0:53)
Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion pushes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data suggests otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.
You know what’s worse than the sun going down at 5 p.m.? Listening to the collective complaint about mandated time changes. (Though, at least it’s something we can all agree on.) While falling back is lovely, the extra hour of sleep isn’t enough to offset the havoc wreaked on our circadian rhythms by the return to standard time.
My vibe is admittedly bugged. That’s not to say the disruption makes me grumpy — I am, after all, always a delight — but it does create a mild malaise by which a tiny shadow of ‘”meh'” is cast over my goings-on. For example, on a Monday in early November, I’ll start thinking about my 3 p.m. diet cola of choice at 11 a.m. or so. And the staring-into-the-abyss scenarios grow in considerable length once Halloween is in the rearview.
The concept of changing the clocks has been debated, revised and (re)legislated over the past century. And yet, from what I can gather, everyone hates it. So why do we all do it? Is it because after a few days our bodies adjust and we move on, forgetting all about the impassioned speeches we typed to our individual group chats earlier in the week? Probably.
We are adaptable creatures, and there is always the next thing. It’s not so different in fantasy. The double-digit weeks represent a similar shift in liminality. The season is not new and, yet, its end still feels mercifully far away. I am equal parts relieved to know a potential turnaround is possible while at the same time understanding the daylight is shrinking.
Christian McCaffrey‘s return to practice offers hope. Drake London‘s hip pointer contributes to confusion. Dallas appears more lost than Atlantis.
These are today’s sports headlines. Thankfully, tomorrow will greet us with a buffet of fresh finds, conundrums and dilemmas. In turn, we will vent our frustrations (because that is part of the fun) and then adjust and retool … because soon enough we’re all going to miss this. So, don’t focus on the nightfall. Instead, lean into the time we have left.
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Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets: Speaking of retreating from the darkness (it wrote itself), Rodgers has slowly shaken off the hibernation, tossing five scores in his past pair of contests. Posting a minimum of 17 fantasy points in three of his past four games, the 40-year-old ranks inside the top 10 at the position in pass attempts (35 per game), passing yards (234 per game), deep-ball completion percentage (48%) and passing TDs (15). With Davante Adams fully integrated into the offense, Allen Lazard on IR, and Mike Williams traded to Pittsburgh, Rodgers’ limited choices could lead to a boost in efficiency (and quelled anxiety for fantasy managers).
The matchups should also allow for some uncharacteristic levity, as Rodgers’ upcoming strength of schedule ranks 13th in terms of ease. Interestingly, eight of the nine defenses Rodgers has faced thus far have been among the league’s stingiest. Only the Texans — a squad against which Rodgers posted 20 fantasy points this past Sunday — have been inside of the top half in terms of fantasy points allowed. This week’s tilt in Arizona builds upon that welcoming pattern, as the Cardinals have given up the 12th-most fantasy points to the position. Furthermore, five of the Jets’ next six outings are against defenses that rank among the 16 most generous to opposing signal-callers, with the Jaguars on tap for the first week of the fantasy playoffs in Week 15.
Leaning on the talents of Adams, Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, Rodgers offers top-15 positional appeal down the stretch. He has the potential to climb inside the top 12 fantasy football QBs in what’s projected to be a close game (Jets +1) this Sunday. Consider the vet a sneaky (and hopefully less grumpy) insurance policy heading into the winter.
James Conner and Trey Benson, RB, Arizona Cardinals: Conner has provided incredible value for his investors, logging double-digit fantasy points in all but two games so far this season. Currently fantasy’s RB15, the 29-year-old has recorded 19 or more touches in seven of nine games while ranking fifth at the position in red zone opportunities (26). The vet’s pass-catching ability has buoyed his stock, as he’s reeled in multiple catches for five consecutive weeks. He’s also one of just four backs to have cleared 100 rushing yards in four contests during 2024. In fact, only Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and Joe Mixon have managed more triple-digit rushing efforts.
While Conner has thrived as a consistent producer, his backup has flashed three-down potential as of late. Finding the end zone for the first time in his pro career last Sunday, Benson posted 12.5 fantasy points in Week 9 (all of his previous efforts combined totaled 14.9 fantasy points). In that game, the rookie managed his second-highest touch total (9) as well as his second-highest snap share (28%) of the season, indicating a growing role (or at least an increase in trust) within the offense. Benson’s virtual relevance is, admittedly, dependent on Conner’s health. To that end, it’s worth noting the former Steeler has missed at least two games in every season of his career. Managers would be wise to stash Benson now, before the mercury drops and his roster percentage skyrockets.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos: It’s not been the comeback effort that many, myself included, had either predicted or hoped for, but Williams has managed several double-digit fantasy efforts, equipping fake football rosters with flex security. While the 24-year-old has remained painfully inefficient as a rusher, (3.8 YPC), his role in the receiving game has kept his stock afloat. Averaging better than four looks per contest (RB5), Williams has drawn a target share of 18% (RB8) and is running 12 routes per game (RB16). However, with Jaleel McLaughlin stealing passing-down reps and Audric Estime added to the rotation, Williams’ appeal is waning.
He figures to struggle at Arrowhead on Sunday. The Chiefs’ run defense has allowed a miserly 3.7 YPC to opposing rushers while giving up the fewest fantasy points per game (14.8) to running backs. For context, Kansas City has allowed a total of 407 rushing yards to RBs; that’s 119 fewer yards than any other team in the league. Furthermore, the Chiefs have given up just five rushing scores on the season, with two of those TDs coming from QBs.
Given Bo Nix‘s penchant for goal-line poaching, Williams’ chances of falling into the end zone are close to nil. The vet needs to be downgraded this week. Consider benching him in favor of similarly less-inspiring options like Rico Dowdle or Jaylen Warren.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: Hopkins’ TD was sweet, but his celly was delicious. On the heels of a full week of practice, the former Titan found the end zone (twice) for the first time since Week 3. The 32-year-old posted an 8-86-2 stat line and emerged as Patrick Mahomes‘ second-favorite target. While he registered fewer snaps (60% share) than Xavier Worthy and/or Justin Watson (69% each), his number of plays and routes run more than doubled from his Week 8 debut. Hopkins is on the hunt for his first ring … and he’s taking lucky fantasy managers with him.
Because nothing is easy, the schedule presents a small speed bump in Week 10. Hopkins is expected to draw shadow coverage via Pat Surtain II this Sunday. While that may seem foreboding, there is a little room for optimism. Hopkins spent nearly half of his time in the slot this past Monday night, recording a slot share of 40%, which was the most of any KC wide receiver and trailed only Travis Kelce. Surtain will pester Hopkins only while he’s on the perimeter. As Zay Flowers‘ 5-127-2 performance in Week 9 demonstrated, moving around the formation can result in positive gains when facing the Broncos. Consider Hopkins a high-floor flex heading into the weekend and a potential WR2 for fantasy purposes moving forward.
DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears: The Bears’ offense has underwhelmed since returning from the bye, with the team dropping two in a row. Accordingly, Moore’s production has faltered, as he’s managed fewer than eight fantasy points in back-to-back weeks. More concerning, Moore has been under 40 receiving yards in four of his past five games and currently ranks 83rd at the position in yards per reception (10.1). His volatility has been directly proportional to the increased degree of defensive difficulty. Normally, that wouldn’t be as much of an issue for a veteran contested-catch specialist, but these are the potential pitfalls of riding with a rookie QB.
This weekend’s clash versus New England figures to deliver more frustration than fireworks. The Patriots defense is not good, but Christian Gonzalez has been solid in shadow coverage, allowing an average of 3.4 catches per game and a single TD thus far in 2024. With the Bears opening as 6-point home favorites and given a projected game total of 39.5 points, the opportunities for Moore aren’t likely to be robust. His efficiency could improve as Rome Odunze continues to develop, but until there’s marked improvement, Moore projects as a high-end WR3 for fantasy purposes.
Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers : Pearsall followed up a solid Week 8 debut with an efficient effort in Week 9, converting all four of his looks and registering 77 scrimmage yards. The rookie additionally posted a snap rate of 68% over his past two outings. That number figures to grow given the numerous maladies facing the team’s pass-catchers. With Brandon Aiyuk out for the season, Jauan Jennings shaking off rust (he hasn’t played since Week 6), Deebo Samuel Sr. on the mend and an unknown workload for McCaffrey should he return this week, Pearsall’s strong hands and high-end versatility figures to be leaned upon.
The matchup also sets up nicely for the rookie this weekend. Tampa Bay’s secondary is the fifth-most-targeted defense in the league, allowing the sixth-most receptions and the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Even better, the Bucs’ have given up 10 scores to the position (tied for fifth most). In a game with the highest projected point total on this week’s slate (51.5), there figure to be plenty of opportunities for Pearsall to make an impact. He’s an intriguing flex option for upside-seeking managers in deeper leagues.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Miami Dolphins: At a position full of surprises, Smith has emerged as a pleasant discovery. The journeyman TE has drawn six or more targets while posting six or more fantasy points in four consecutive efforts, which is tied for the longest active streak among tight ends. Moreover, Smith has led all Dolphins pass catchers in receiving yards (162) since the team’s Week 6 bye. Tyreek Hill has registered 160 receiving yards during that same span. It’s important to note those totals include the two games since Tua Tagovailoa returned, suggesting Smith’s continued usage down the stretch.
The 29-year-old figures to remain involved at SoFi Stadium on Monday night. The Rams’ young defense has exceeded expectations but can still be had over the middle. Los Angeles has given up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, including allowing four catches on seven targets to Seattle’s AJ Barner last Sunday. With David Njoku, Tucker Kraft and Brock Bowers all on bye, Smith offers managers low-end TE1 streaming appeal.
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