Betting buzz: The worst bad beat of the year?
Credit to Author: ESPN| Date: Mon, 4 Nov 2024 00:06:59 EST
Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans with a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page | ESPN BET 
The Washington Commanders became the first team to go over their season win total (6.5) on Sunday. The Commanders defeated the New York Giants 27-22 to improve to 7-2 on the season. At BetMGM sportsbooks, 77% of the bets and 66% of the money wagered was on the Commanders over 6.5 wins entering the season.
Washington has covered the spread in eight consecutive games, the longest streak since the Tennessee Titans in 2022. Sunday’s cover came down a failed two-point conversion in the fourth quarter by the Giants, who were four-point underdogs.
“Our biggest need was the Giants and they couldn’t get that two-point conversion at the end of the game,” John Murray, executive director at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said.
Last-play prop bad beat
The most negative completed pass in the NFL this century came on the last play of the Miami Dolphins–Buffalo Bills game, and it caused a tough beat for anyone who bet the over on Tua Tagovailoa‘s passing yards.
The over/under on Tagovailoa’s passing yards was set around 249.5 at most sportsbooks. He had 255 passing yards when he lined up for the final play. Trailing 30-27 at their own 30 with five seconds left, Tagovailoa completed a short pass to De’Von Achane, who lateraled to Jaylen Waddle. Waddle ran backwards and was tackled at the Miami 6-yard line, a loss of 24 yards. Tagovailoa’s passing yards went from 255 to 231 on the play, which produced the most negative yards on a completed pass this century, per ESPN Research.
Post-Lions losing streak snapped, covering trend still active
After beating the New England Patriots 20-17, the Titans are the first team this season to win a game outright after playing the Detroit Lions as their most recent previous opponent. However, the Titans failed to cover the -3.5 spread (per ESPN BET odds), meaning teams are 0-7 ATS in their next game after playing Detroit.
Tennessee fell to 1-7 ATS on the season. The Green Bay Packers (who lost to the Lions in Week 9) have a bye before facing the Chicago Bears in Week 11.
A big underdog wins outright again
With their 23-22 win over the New Orleans Saints, the Carolina Panthers pulled off the 10th outright upset by an underdog of 7.5 points or greater this season, the most through Week 9 since 1995 (12). Carolina entered the contest at +7.5, according to ESPN BET odds.
The sportsbook says that Saints moneyline (-340) was the sixth-most-popular parlay leg selection on Sunday, while betting tracking app Pikkit says that 9,332 of 9,691 Saints ML bets tracked were in parlays. Panthers +7.5 received 57.9% of the handle despite only 35.5% of the wagers, and they were the biggest moneyline winner of the week thus far (+280), per ESPN BET. The Panthers are the only underdog to win outright this week. Favorites were 12-1 straight-up and 9-4 against the spread.
Bears-Cardinals attract lopsided betting
The Bears-Cardinals game attracted the most lopsided betting action of any afternoon game at ESPN BET. Approximately 83.7% of the money wagered was on the underdog Bears plus the points. The line closed at Bears +2. The Cardinals won 29-9.