Title contenders, Final Four front-runners and where they’ll fall short: Predicting the Top 25’s ceiling and floor
Credit to Author: Charlie Creme| Date: Sat, 2 Nov 2024 11:20:40 EST
At this time last year — as hard as it is to believe — the South Carolina Gamecocks were considered a Final Four contender but weren’t the favorite to win the national title.
Then they scored a resounding win over Notre Dame in Paris to open the season, and everything changed. South Carolina was immediately placed atop the AP Top 25 poll and never looked back to become the 10th unbeaten NCAA champion.
There’s no doubt South Carolina opens at No. 1 this season. But is there a scenario in which the Gamecocks won’t be the last team standing at the Final Four in Tampa, Florida?
UConn, USC, UCLA, Texas, Notre Dame and LSU all look like early contenders to dethrone South Carolina, making the 2024-25 title chase intriguing if not completely wide open.
If healthy, UConn should have its best team since at least 2021 in its quest for a 12th championship. Paige Bueckers and JuJu Watkins are the front-runners for player of the year, and Watkins now has more help at USC, which is trying to win its first national championship since the days of Cheryl Miller.
How will conference realignment impact the battle for seeding in the NCAA tournament? USC and UCLA enter the Big Ten as the favorites to win the conference, but Texas and Oklahoma seem to have more to overcome with their move to the SEC.
Those changes all factor into the best- and worst-case scenarios for every team in ESPN’s preseason Top 25 poll.
Sania Feagin and Raven Johnson provide insight on what it’s like playing for Dawn Staley at South Carolina and how touring St. Jude impacted them.
Best case: Dawn Staley has built a program where the expectation every year is the Final Four and a national title. The Gamecocks continue to steamroll the competition, this time riding a talented, versatile and deep backcourt. They win the SEC going away, secure the overall No. 1 seed once again and become the first team to repeat as national champions since UConn won its fourth in a row in 2016.
Worst case: The loss of Kamilla Cardoso is exposed in late-November games against UCLA and Iowa State, two teams with a formidable inside presence. With the air of invincibility gone, so is much of South Carolina’s confidence. The Gamecocks are overtaken by LSU in the SEC and fail to make the Final Four for the first time in five years.
Best case: Paige Bueckers is somehow even better than she was a season ago. Azzi Fudd gets and stays healthy — and finally the two get to play together for an extended period. The extended minutes KK Arnold and Ashlynn Shade were forced to play a season ago pay dividends, and Princeton transfer Kaitlyn Chen picks up where Nika Muhl left off, giving Geno Auriemma multiple options in the backcourt. Ayanna Patterson and Jana El Alfy, who both missed last season, are impactful in a frontcourt led by freshman Sarah Strong, who is the best freshman in the country. The mix of talent ends the national championship drought, and the Huskies earn their 12th title.
Worst case: Five key Huskies missed last season due to injury, and UConn once again can’t escape the health problems that have plagued the program for three years. The lineup shuffling becomes the norm again, and navigating an always challenging nonconference season becomes difficult for a second straight season. Much of the burden falls to Bueckers, who comes through. But it’s asking too much to deliver a title, and the season again ends in the national semifinals.
Best case: With JuJu Watkins leading the way, the Trojans’ talent is overwhelming. Kiki Iriafen and Talia von Oelhoffen, Pac-12 foes a season ago, fit Lindsay Gottlieb’s approach perfectly. Rayah Marshall, who was second in the country in blocks per game in 2022-23, returns to being a dominant rim defender. Gottlieb also finds a way to effectively use her No. 1-ranked freshman class, led by Kennedy Smith, to plug every hole. Everything is working by the time USC meets UConn on Dec. 21. The Trojans then storm through Big Ten play before cutting down the nets at the Final Four for the first time in 40 years.
Worst case: The inefficiency that plagued Watkins late last season (she shot 30.7% from the field over USC’s final seven games) carries over into this season, and despite the upgraded talent around her, the Trojans don’t improve. They don’t win the Big Ten or get a No. 1 seed. USC is still good enough to reach the Elite Eight but falls short of reaching the program’s first Final Four since 1986.
Best case: Like Gottlieb at USC, Cori Close must incorporate former rivals in Washington State transfer Charlisse Leger-Walker and Oregon State transfer Timea Gardiner into the program while navigating the move to the Big Ten. She does so seamlessly because Lauren Betts and Kiki Rice still lead the way. Betts establishes herself as the best center in the country, and Rice and Leger-Walker make repeated clutch plays in big wins over South Carolina and USC, the latter of which on March 1 wins the Bruins the Big Ten title. That momentum carries over into the NCAA tournament, and UCLA wins its first NCAA championship.
Worst case: While Betts’ game takes another step forward, everything else around her doesn’t quite jell. Leger-Walker struggles after last season’s knee injury, Gardiner’s 3-point shooting (39.5% last season) isn’t as good, and Janiah Barker has difficulty carving out a role. The talent carries the Bruins to plenty of wins, but not the big ones. They lose to South Carolina, Ohio State and USC (three times, including once in the Big Ten tournament final), and bow out of the NCAA tournament in the Sweet 16 just like last postseason.
Best case: In a season loaded with great guard play, Rori Harmon and Madison Booker emerge as the best backcourt duo in the country. Booker is even better offensively than she was as a freshman when she won Big 12 Player of the Year, and Harmon returns from her knee injury and picks up where she left off as a defensive stopper and topflight facilitator (she averaged 7.8 APG before her injury). The Longhorns handle the move to the SEC just fine and slip past South Carolina for the league title. A No. 1 NCAA tournament seed follows, as does a trip to the Final Four.
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Worst case: Booker and Harmon work well together and Michigan transfer Laila Phelia fills a need at the third guard spot, but the Longhorns miss the size of role players DeYona Gaston, Khadija Faye and Amina Muhammad as they move to the SEC. The young players aren’t ready for the physicality of the conference. Texas finishes outside the top three in the league and fails to get a top-three seed in the NCAA tournament.
Best case: Niele Ivey has called the backcourt duo of Hannah Hidalgo and Olivia Miles “electric,” which proves to be an understatement. The pair’s speed and tenacity help them dominate opposing guards. The depth that was so lacking a season ago because of injuries is a strength. Transfers Liza Karlen and Liatu King fit perfectly around Hidalgo, Miles, Maddy Westbeld and Sonia Citron. Notre Dame is the best transition team in the country, earns a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament and reaches its 10th Final Four (and first in Ivey’s tenure).
Worst case: The electricity isn’t there consistently. It takes a while for Miles and Hidalgo to figure out who should have the ball in different scenarios, and the Irish aren’t ready for games against USC, Texas and UConn in the first two months. Notre Dame is good but not great, and an ACC title and Final Four elude the Irish.
Kim Mulkey and Aneesah Morrow express their excitement for what this new season will bring for the Tigers while Flaujae Johnson speaks on balancing her music and basketball career.
Best case: The talented core of Aneesah Morrow, Flau’jae Johnson and Mikaylah Williams plays to expectations, and the role players and new additions like Sa’Myah Smith, Shayeann Day-Wilson and Kailyn Gilbert make the Tigers great. Johnson takes over as LSU’s leader, and the turbulence of last season is nonexistent. The Tigers outlast South Carolina and Texas in a hotly contested SEC race on the strength of a win in Austin, Texas, on Feb. 16. By the time the NCAA tournament rolls around, LSU is playing its best basketball, and Kim Mulkey gets back to the Final Four for the sixth time.
Worst case: A soft nonconference schedule masks that the returning Tigers and the new players haven’t meshed by the time SEC play begins. Morrow and Johnson have good seasons individually, but LSU is inconsistent all season. Three league losses in January puts LSU in a hole, and a disappointing fourth-place SEC finish is followed by a loss in the Sweet 16.
Best case: The Audi Crooks who scored 40 points in the first round of the NCAA tournament against Maryland and was dominant through much of the second half of last season is the norm. With Emily Ryan and Addy Brown also producing big seasons, Iowa State wins the Big 12 and gets to the Elite Eight. Crooks leads the country in field goal percentage and is a first-team All-American.
Worst case: The Crooks who scored 10 points on 3-of-21 shooting in the second round of the NCAA tournament shows up too often in key games, and Iowa State falls short of the Big 12 title. Crooks has plenty of big games as well, and the talent around her helps get the Cyclones to the NCAA tournament, but they once again are out in the second round.
Best case: The best team of the Kara Lawson era proves it immediately with significant early-season wins over Maryland, Kansas State and Oklahoma. That carries over into ACC play, where the Blue Devils are Notre Dame’s strongest competition for the regular-season championship. The defense and depth are the best in the conference. Toby Fournier is the league’s most impactful freshman, and Reigan Richardson becomes one of the ACC’s best players. The progression of falling short of the NCAA tournament in 2022 to reaching the second round in 2023 to making the Sweet 16 a year ago leads to an Elite Eight appearance this season.
Worst case: The offensive struggles from last season — the Blue Devils shot 31.7% on 3-pointers last season and ranked 264th nationally in turnovers per game — carry over into this season. Duke remains inconsistent — the Blue Devils didn’t have a winning streak longer than three games in conference play a season ago — and never seriously contends for the ACC crown. Reaching the NCAA tournament is no problem, but taking the next step to the Elite Eight is out of reach.
Best case: The Bears were missing an imposing inside presence last season, and Nicki Collen addressed it by getting Aaronette Vonleh out of the transfer portal from Colorado. With Vonleh in place to rebound and protect the rim, guards Sarah Andrews, Jada Walker and Bella Fontleroy flourish. Andrews and Walker are coming off big performances in last season’s NCAA tournament, and that momentum carries over into a Big 12 championship and another Sweet 16 trip.
Worst case: Baylor doesn’t hit the meat of its Big 12 schedule until mid-February, and a promising season begins to break down at that point. The Bears weren’t challenged by a soft nonconference schedule, and it hurts their standing in the eyes of the NCAA tournament selection committee, which leaves Baylor out of the top 16. That makes the path to the Sweet 16 more difficult, and the Bears fall short.
Jennie Baranczyk speaks on the addition of Raegan Beers and how they plan on utilizing her skills on the court while returning 97% of the Sooners’ total production.
Best case: With nearly everyone returning, the Sooners take all that experience with them to the SEC and thrive with a fast-paced and unselfish style. Oregon State transfer Raegan Beers, who had 16 points and 8 rebounds against South Carolina in the NCAA tournament last March, fills the one area that was missing from last season: size. The 6-foot-4 center’s interior defense is the key to Oklahoma finishing in the top four in the conference. It’s also why the Sooners reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2013.
Worst case: The physical nature of the SEC is a shock to the system for the Sooners at first, and they struggle at the start of the conference season. By the time Oklahoma finds its footing, the top four is out of reach and the Sooners finish sixth. That’s still good enough for an NCAA tournament berth, but they can’t get out of the second round.
Best case: The Tar Heels haven’t won an ACC regular-season or tournament championship since 2008. That streak ends in 2025. Back-to-back wins over Notre Dame and Duke in Chapel Hill to start January make the Tar Heels the early front-runner — and they hold on by beating Duke again in late February. The addition of Grace Townsend from Richmond is a boost, and Alyssa Ustby and Lexi Donarski thrive in their graduate seasons. But the added size from 6-5 freshmen Ciera Toomey and Blanca Thomas is the biggest difference.
Worst case: Adding Townsend and freshman point guard Lanie Grant is a net positive, but that doesn’t fix North Carolina’s biggest weakness from a season ago: The Tar Heels’ 3-point shooting ranked 200th in the country in accuracy. That and their poor free throw shooting (66.0%) continue to let them down in big games, and the season ends in the second round of the NCAA tournament.
Best case: The backcourt trio of Aziaha James, Saniya Rivers and Zoe Brooks is even better than a season ago. Rivers goes to another level. She’s able to take over games with her athleticism but also becomes more of a 3-point threat. Add five-star freshman Zamareya Jones into the mix and the guard production is among the best in the ACC. Boston University 6-4 transfer Caitlin Weimar eventually returns from a hip injury and is a defensive force. The Wolfpack aren’t quite able to catch Notre Dame in the ACC but get healthy enough by February and make a run to the Elite Eight.
Worst case: James, Brooks and Weimar are all starting the season less than 100% healthy, and the Wolfpack are slow out of the gate with games against South Carolina, TCU and possibly LSU before Thanksgiving. Weimar’s recovery from hip surgery forces her to miss significant time, and NC State doesn’t have enough size. The Wolfpack never truly compete for the ACC title, and they can’t rekindle the magic of last season’s Final Four run.
Best case: It takes three months for it all to work, but by February the Buckeyes catch fire. Jaloni Cambridge becomes the Hidalgo of 2025, a freshman point guard who takes the basketball world by storm. She teams with Chance Gray to produce a quick, dynamic, albeit small backcourt. They mesh well with Cotie McMahon, who is more consistent than last season, to form an up-tempo style that Kevin McGuff prefers to play. It all leads to a third-place Big Ten finish and an appearance in the Sweet 16.
Worst case: The Buckeyes are better in February and March than they are in November and December as all the new faces — including Kentucky transfer Ajae Petty and freshman guard Ava Watson — learn to play together. But the NCAA tournament résumé is thin without a marquee nonconference win. That prevents Ohio State from earning a spot in the top 16. Going on the road in the second round proves costly, and the season ends before the regionals.
Best case: Everything that worked so well last season when the Wildcats were one of the best defensive teams in the country and one of the most efficient shooting teams continues. With Oklahoma and Texas gone, success in those areas equates to a Big 12 title. With Ayoka Lee the offensive centerpiece surrounded by a good collection of veteran guards, Kansas State has the right ingredients to make a deep NCAA tournament run.
Worst case: The Wildcats went 7-3 a season ago in Big 12 games that were decided by three points or fewer or went to overtime. That script gets flipped, and many of those seven wins a season ago turn into close losses, taking Kansas State out of the running for a conference title. The lack of a reliable 3-point shooter beyond Serena Sundell gets more exposed and scoring is hard to come by when Lee isn’t able to dominate.
Best case: The defense that was so good last season gets even better. The Mountaineers ride that plus the scoring duo of JJ Quinerly and Jordan Harrison to a Big 12 title. Quinerly, in particular, takes her game to another level, leading the conference in scoring and pushing to be a first-team All-American.
Worst case: Mark Kellogg still has a top-20 defense, but he can’t find enough scoring. Too much is asked of Quinerly and her efficiency falls off. West Virginia’s rebounding struggles from a season ago also can’t be fixed. The Mountaineers went 1-5 against Baylor, Iowa State and Kansas State last season, and their inability to match their rivals’ size again proves costly, resulting in a fourth-place finish.
Best case: Jeff Walz’s move toward recruiting freshmen and less reliance on the transfer portal pays off. Mackenly Randolph and Tajianna Roberts become instant contributors, and Imari Berry looks like a star. The Cardinals survive a challenging nonconference schedule and hit a groove in ACC play. Their game on March 2 against Notre Dame decides the conference championship.
Worst case: None of the freshmen distinguish themselves. Their inconsistency puts too much of a burden on veterans Olivia Cochran and Nyla Harris to carry the offense in every game. The Cardinals don’t score enough and finish outside the top four of the ACC and fail to reach the regionals of the NCAA tournament for the second straight year.
Best case: A softer-than-typical nonconference schedule helps the 10 new Terrapins get acclimated, and Brenda Frese has her team clicking by the time Big Ten play arrives. The chemistry gets even better by Valentine’s Day with Mir McLean, Kaylene Smikle and Sarah Te-Biasu proving to be great complements to Shyanne Sellers. Depth and rebounding are strengths, and the Terps return to the Sweet 16.
Worst case: Despite having six seniors or graduate students on the roster, Maryland rarely plays like a veteran team. Everything is just too new to too many people in the program. The Terps miss out on hosting first- and second-round NCAA tournament games, which contributes to a one-and-done postseason.
Best case: Ta’Niya Latson takes her game to another level and becomes a surprise national player of the year candidate. As one of the most unstoppable scorers in the country, Latson leads the Seminoles to a top-three finish in the ACC and their first Sweet 16 appearance since 2017.
Worst case: Despite a veteran team, Florida State doesn’t elevate beyond the first two years of Latson’s career. A good but nondescript ACC season leaves the Seminoles in the middle of the pack, and they fail to win a March Madness game for the fifth straight NCAA tournament.
Yolett McPhee-McCuin, Tameiya Sadler and KK Deans chat with Paul Finebaum about Ole Miss’ exciting opportunity to open their season in Paris against USC.
Best case: KK Deans is healthy for the entire season and gives coach Yolett McPhee-McCuin the point guard who has been the program’s missing element. After a fourth-place finish in 2023 and third place in 2024, Ole Miss climbs to No. 2 in the SEC with one of the best defenses in the country.
Worst case: Deans helps improve the Rebels’ offensive rhythm and shooting woes, but the team that was 358th out of 360 Division I programs in 3-point rate still can’t shoot well enough to push elite programs in the SEC. The struggle to score becomes too much of a burden by season’s end, and the team falls short of the Sweet 16 for a second straight NCAA tournament.
Best case: Creighton stuns UConn on Jan. 25 in Omaha, Nebraska, for the Huskies’ first Big East loss in two years. The Bluejays still finish behind the Huskies in the Big East standings, but that win and the play of Lauren Jensen, who challenges Bueckers for Big East Player of the Year, propels Creighton to a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament. Hosting games is a big boost in a Sweet 16 run.
Worst case: The loss of starter Emma Ronsiek, Creighton’s second-leading scorer and rebounder who elected to transfer to Colorado State, proves larger than expected. The Bluejays finish second in the Big East but don’t come close to competing with UConn, and then bow out after just one game in the NCAA tournament.
Best case: The steady improvement of Alexis Markowski continues, and she really blossoms. She is the most productive big in the Big Ten and gets some first-team All-America votes. Logan Nissley and Natalie Potts are even better as sophomores, and freshman Britt Prince proves to be more than an adequate replacement for Jaz Shelley. A Sweet 16 appearance for the first time in 12 years is the capper to Markowski’s career.
Worst case: The Cornhuskers handle business against the teams they should beat but never get over the hump against the Big Ten’s elite, going 0-4 against USC, UCLA, Ohio State and Maryland. A near-.500 conference record leads to an unfavorable NCAA tournament seed and a first-round exit.
Best case: The pairing of Georgia Amoore and Kenny Brooks continues to produce results, just like it did at Virginia Tech. Clara Strack shows big improvement as a 6-foot-5 sophomore and gives Amoore a running mate. The new conference is no problem for Brooks in his first year as the Wildcats flip their 12-20 record from last season.
Worst case: Amoore and Strack aren’t enough for Brooks to overcome everything else that is so new. Amoore is forced to do too much and wears down like she did at the end of last season at Virginia Tech, when Liz Kitley went down with a knee injury. Kentucky battles right into its final game of the SEC tournament, but it’s not enough and the Wildcats miss the NCAA tournament for the third consecutive year.
Best case: With Aaliyah Nye and Sarah Ashlee Barker making the most of their final seasons, the Crimson Tide deliver another top-four SEC finish (behind South Carolina, LSU and Texas). After going from the WNIT to the first round of the NCAA tournament and then to the second round last season, Kristy Curry’s group takes the next natural step and reaches the program’s first Sweet 16 since 1998.
Worst case: The nonconference schedule isn’t challenging enough, and Alabama isn’t ready for an SEC schedule that includes Texas, Ole Miss and South Carolina in three of the first five games. The Crimson Tide fall to the middle of the SEC standings, barely reach the NCAA tournament and bow out in the first round.
Best case: Riding the momentum of last March’s WBIT and their core of fourth- and fifth-year players, the Illini finish in the top three in the Big Ten standings. Makira Cook, a career 17.3 points-per-game scorer, averages over 23 PPG and is the league’s top scorer among all players not named JuJu Watkins.
Worst case: All the problems that made the past regular season so frustrating — defensive inconsistency, not enough ball movement and not enough 3-point shooting — reemerge. Illinois was a sub-.500 team last season before a run to the WBIT title, and the Fighting Illini suffer the same fate now in the deeper Big Ten.