NHL Power Rankings: A new No. 1 team, plus the biggest early surprise for each club
Credit to Author: Arda Ocal| Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2024 19:09:10 EST
We are just over two weeks into the NHL season. Frozen Frenzy is in the books, and in the distance is the triumphant return of best-on-best international hockey at the 4 Nations Face-Off.
There’s a lot of season left, but there is enough of a sample size to identify the biggest surprises of the season for all 32 teams, presented here along with an updated set of Power Rankings.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday, which generates our master list here.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Oct. 19. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 78.57%
Biggest surprise: Alexis is (still) on fire. The French word for brakes is freins, but it’s been all gas and no freins for Alexis Lafreniere, who continues to build off of his 14 points in 16 playoff games. It’s not easy being a No. 1 pick, because many will demand you be great now. It’s been a marathon, not a sprint, for the Quebec native, and the improvements are tangible. You have to wonder how much Team Canada consideration he will get for February’s 4 Nations Face-Off.
Next seven days: vs. ANA (Oct. 26), @ WSH (Oct. 29)
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 100.00%
Biggest surprise: A perfect start. The Jets have been absolutely perfect: 7-0-0, with a plus-18 goal differential, and six players on or above a point-per-game rate out of the gates. This is the kind of dream start you remember if you fall into a slump later in the season and are still top of your division. The Central looked like a top-heavy slugfest with surprise potential before the season started, and the biggest positive surprise thus far has been Winnipeg.
Next seven days: @ CGY (Oct. 26), vs. TOR (Oct. 28), @ DET (Oct. 30)
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 75.00%
Biggest surprise: Logan Stankoven‘s carry-over rookie campaign. The threshold for an NHL player to remain at “rookie” status is 25 games. Logan Stankoven played 24 last season for Dallas, which means he’s still eligible to win the Calder Trophy this season. Stankoven impressed in those 24 regular-season and 19 postseason appearances, where he averaged just over 16 minutes of ice time per game. Now, he kicked off his official rookie season with seven assists through seven games. His energetic, fearless style has earned him top-line minutes.
Next seven days: vs. CHI (Oct. 26)
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 85.71%
Biggest surprise: A 5-0-2 start. The Wild are kicking off Marc-Andre Fleury‘s final NHL season off properly, as one of four teams without a regulation loss in the early going. Kirill Kaprizov has 13 points through seven games, and Mats Zuccarello has four goals. Maybe the Wild and Preds traded preseason projection vibes?
Next seven days: @ PHI (Oct. 26), @ PIT (Oct. 29)
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 78.57%
Biggest surprise: Being in first place after seven games. The Flames weren’t projected to be a playoff-contending team this season, but they are off to a scorching start. They torched Edmonton in the Battle of Alberta. Defenseman Rasmus Andersson leads the team with eight points, while Andersson, Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri each have three goals.
Next seven days: vs. WPG (Oct. 26), @ VGK (Oct. 28), @ UTA (Oct. 30)
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 57.14%
Biggest surprise: Guentzel picking up where Stamkos left off. Look, nobody is going to replace Steven Stamkos and his legacy with the Lightning and the city of Tampa. That guy is going straight to the Hall of Fame, having his number retired at Amalie Arena and getting a statue outside. We all know that. But looking at the first few games of this season, Bolts fans can’t help but get excited seeing Jake Guentzel fit right in with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov, scoring seven points in six games.
Next seven days: vs. WSH (Oct. 26), vs. NSH (Oct. 28), @ COL (Oct. 30)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 57.14%
Biggest surprise: Aside from a couple blips, the goaltending looks … good? Leafs fans have long desired a long-term solution as the No. 1 goalie to help lead the Leafs to the promised land. After the departure of Ilya Samsonov, Joseph Woll was thought to be the guy to get that chance — he looked terrific in the postseason when healthy. And there’s the rub: He has a history of injuries.
Enter Anthony Stolarz, who has allowed two goals or fewer in each start this season, building his case to be the No. 1 (or at the very least, 1B in a rotation). Dennis Hildeby has also looked sharp when he has been tapped (aside from the 6-2 trouncing at the hands of the Blue Jackets). With Woll returning from injury, the prospects look good for the Leafs in the nets (though Thursday’s outing against St. Louis wasn’t great for Woll).
Next seven days: @ BOS (Oct. 26), @ WPG (Oct. 28), vs. SEA (Oct. 31)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 64.29%
Biggest surprise: Howdy Howden. Brett Howden enters his fourth season as a member of the Golden Knights on a contract year, and started very strong; with three goals through seven games, he’s well on his way to hitting double digits for the first time in his career. A two-way player with a physical style, he has earned top-six minutes on the second line alongside Tomas Hertl and Pavel Dorofeyev, providing another scoring option for a team that lost a few of them to free agency.
Next seven days: vs. OTT (Oct. 25), vs. SJ (Oct. 26), vs. CGY (Oct. 28), @ LA (Oct. 30)
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 55.00%
Biggest surprise: Casey’s impressive start. Seamus Casey built himself quite a name among Devils fans, scoring three goals in eight games with the club. Head coach Sheldon Keefe has said he’s impressed with the 2022 second-round pick, but it’s important for Casey to round out his game in the AHL. With Luke Hughes and Brett Pesce returning to the lineup on Thursday, the blue line is certainly crowded long term.
Next seven days: vs. NYI (Oct. 25), vs. ANA (Oct. 27), @ VAN (Oct. 30)
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 83.33%
Biggest surprise: Picking up where they left off. The Caps are 5-1 to start the season. Dylan Strome has nine points. Tom Wilson has five goals. Of course everyone is watching this team to see when Alex Ovechkin eclipses Wayne Gretzky’s career goal-scoring mark, but this team is looking to make it back to the playoffs after last season’s surprise appearance.
Next seven days: @ TB (Oct. 26), vs. NYR (Oct. 29), vs. MTL (Oct. 31)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 61.11%
Biggest (non-)surprise: Paul Maurice signs on the dotted line. One of the greatest moments in NHL history was when Paul Maurice, mid-interview with ESPN’s Emily Kaplan, was tapped on the shoulder to receive the Stanley Cup. He looked at it, talked to it, then raised it with the biggest look of 29 years’ worth of relief you could possibly have. You win the Cup, people tend to want to keep you around, as the Panthers did in inking Maurice to a contract extension this week.
Next seven days: @ NYI (Oct. 26), @ BUF (Oct. 28)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 66.67%
Biggest surprise: A very visible Ghost Bear. Shayne Gostisbehere returned to the Hurricanes from the Red Wings this offseason, and has contributed early, including a four-game goal streak, three of which came on the power play. The Hurricanes pulled off the only comeback of two or more goals during Frozen Frenzy night, nullifying Connor McDavid‘s two goals to win it in overtime. Gostisbehere had a goal and a helper in the effort.
Next seven days: @ SEA (Oct. 26), @ VAN (Oct. 28), vs. BOS (Oct. 31)
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 56.25%
Biggest surprise: They’ve been terrific in a season of firsts. You couldn’t write a better script for the opening game; immaculate vibes, first goal in franchise history scored by Dylan Guenther, who just signed a big contract, and the second goal by new captain Clayton Keller. Can the magic last all season and result in a playoff berth?
Next seven days: @ LA (Oct. 26), vs. SJ (Oct. 28), vs. CGY (Oct. 30)
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 62.50%
Biggest surprise: Brandt Clarke. In last week’s power rankings focusing on fantasy pickups for each team, Clarke was the choice for Los Angeles. The 21-year-old is logging big and important minutes, particularly in Drew Doughty‘s spot on the Kings’ power play. Clarke picked up five assists through his first eight games of the season.
Next seven days: vs. UTA (Oct. 26), @ SJ (Oct. 29), vs. VGK (Oct. 30)
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 66.67%
Biggest surprise: The power play. The Sens are second in the league, going 40.9% with the man advantage thus far, and tied for the league lead with nine power-play goals. Jake Sanderson has been dynamite with the man advantage, potting six of his seven points on the power play.
Next seven days: @ VGK (Oct. 25), @ COL (Oct. 27), vs. STL (Oct. 29)
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 66.67%
Biggest surprise: Elias Pettersson‘s slow start. Pettersson has exceeded 30 goals in the past three seasons, tallying 102 points two seasons ago. So having just three assists through six games doesn’t look very good, especially when he signed a massive deal just months ago. Is he ready to turn the corner?
Next seven days: vs. PIT (Oct. 26), vs. CAR (Oct. 28), vs. NJ (Oct. 30)
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 43.75%
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Biggest surprise: Bench boss bellows at Brad. In the third period of Boston’s 2-1 defeat against Utah on Oct. 19, Bruins coach Jim Montgomery was seen yelling at captain Brad Marchand on the bench following an offensive zone turnover, and also shoved the captain. Montgomery enters his third season coaching the B’s, with both postseasons resulting in losses to the Panthers, and some wonder if he’s on the hot seat.
For what it’s worth, Marchand downplayed the incident to reporters on Thursday: “It’s unfortunate how coaches are scrutinized over things like that. There’s a lack of accountability nowadays because people can’t handle the heat. You make a mistake like that, you deserve to hear about it.”
Next seven days: vs. TOR (Oct. 26), vs. PHI (Oct. 29), @ CAR (Oct. 31)
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 56.25%
Biggest surprise: An offensive surge. In Seattle’s inaugural season, the team finished bottom five in goals (213). In its second, the Kraken scored a lot more, netting out in the top five (289). They jumped 40 points in the standings and made the playoffs. Last season, they were back in the bottom five (214) and well outside the postseason mix. So far this season, they sit right around the middle, 13th, with 23 goals through seven games. Top-liners Jared McCann and Jordan Eberle have a combined nine of those tallies, as the team pushes to get back in the playoffs.
Next seven days: vs. CAR (Oct. 26), @ MTL (Oct. 29), @ TOR (Oct. 31)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 50.00%
Biggest surprise: The goaltending. The Avs started the season 0-4, and in all four of those games, their opponents scored five or more goals. They’ve won three straight since, averaging two goals against per game. Through five games, Alexandar Georgiev has a .810 save percentage and a 1-3 record. Justus Annunen is 2-1 with a .900 save percentage. Kaapo Kahkonen is on a conditioning assignment in the AHL, having been claimed off waivers. This team has the talent to outscore their problems on many nights (Cale Makar is on pace for 114 points), but stability between the pipes is essential if the Avs want to be a serious contender.
Next seven days: vs. OTT (Oct. 27), vs. CHI (Oct. 28), vs. TB (Oct. 30)
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 62.50%
Biggest surprise: Resilience. The Blues spoiled Macklin Celebrini’s NHL debut; the Sharks were up 4-1 going into the third before the Blues scored three unanswered goals to send it to overtime, where captain Brayden Schenn called game. Every game but two so far has been a one-goal game, and St. Louis has won more than it has lost.
Next seven days: @ MTL (Oct. 26), @ OTT (Oct. 29), @ PHI (Oct. 31)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 35.71%
Biggest surprise: The Mirror. Mirror, mirror on the wall … who’s the most underachieving team of all? So far this season it’s Edmonton, which is loathing the mention of déjà vu as much as Connor McDavid despises ketchup. Time for Edmonton to, ahem, dig in and collect some wins because this team, once again, is in Cup-or-bust mode.
Next seven days: vs. PIT (Oct. 25), @ DET (Oct. 27), @ CBJ (Oct. 28), @ NSH (Oct. 31)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 50.00%
Biggest surprise: Shutout losses. Through six games, the Islanders have been shut out three times — and two of those games were 1-0 losses. The Isles have outshot opponents (in particular the Red Wings, where the shot total was 30-11) outchanced them, and Ilya Sorokin has been great in goal. The team just isn’t scoring. Anthony Duclair is injured, and nobody has more than two goals this season (Mathew Barzal has just one).
Next seven days: @ NJ (Oct. 25), vs. FLA (Oct. 26), vs. ANA (Oct. 29), @ CBJ (Oct. 30)
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 43.75%
Biggest surprise: How much we love nostalgia. Years ago, I went to a Bon Jovi concert. After playing a couple songs from their latest album, Jon Bon Jovi bellowed, “Now we’ll play your favorites … the hits, only hits and nothing but the hits!” That sent the crowd into a frenzy. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin aren’t on a retirement tour, but they sure are hitting lofty milestones (with Sid recently crossing 1,600 points and Geno 500 goals), and it feels as nostalgic to hockey fans as “Livin’ On A Prayer.”
Next seven days: @ EDM (Oct. 25), @ VAN (Oct. 26), vs. MIN (Oct. 29), vs. ANA (Oct. 31)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 43.75%
Biggest surprise: Ryan McLeod. Since joining the swords in the offseason from Edmonton, McLeod has seemed to fit right in, tied for second in goals on a team that is seventh in the league in scoring. Not the best start for the team in general — including two losses overseas to begin the campaign — but the young core absolutely exists here for a playoff push. McLeod provides quality depth in the middle.
Next seven days: vs. DET (Oct. 26), vs. FLA (Oct. 28)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 58.33%
Biggest surprise: Shots for everybody! Maybe this shouldn’t be a major surprise, because this has been a trend for the Ducks for the past few seasons. They topped the league two years ago at 35.8 shots allowed per game, and this season, they sit behind only Montreal with 34.2. Despite that onslaught, Lukas Dostal has been solid in John Gibson‘s absence, going 2-1-1 with a .930 save percentage.
Next seven days: @ NYR (Oct. 26), @ NJ (Oct. 27), @ NYI (Oct. 29), @ PIT (Oct. 31)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 57.14%
Biggest surprise: Winning a game with 11 shots on goal. Okay, this one has a little recency bias as I’m writing this less than 24 hours after Frozen Frenzy, but it will always be bonkers to me when a team logs 11 shots and wins a game. That’s tied for fifth-fewest shots in a win in NHL history. Two teams (the Sharks in 1998, Maple Leafs in 1999) needed only nine shots to get the W. Alex Lyon could have also been a pick here, because he’s on a great stretch (two goals against facing 84 shots in his past three games).
Next seven days: @ BUF (Oct. 26), vs. EDM (Oct. 27), vs. WPG (Oct. 30)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 50.00
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Biggest surprise: Scoring despite injuries. Columbus is 10th in the league in scoring, with 24 goals in a 3-3-0 start. The thing is, their usual offensive contributors are injured: captain Boone Jenner could miss six months due to shoulder surgery, Dmitri Voronkov was placed on IR after a preseason game and Kent Johnson is also sidelined. But the Blue Jackets keep finding ways to score, including a 6-2 thumping of Toronto. Sean Monahan, Mathieu Olivier, Kirill Marchenko and Yegor Chinakhov each have three goals through six games.
Next seven days: @ NSH (Oct. 26), vs. EDM (Oct. 28), vs. NYI (Oct. 30)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 16.67%
Biggest surprise: Cold start after hot summer of spending. The Preds have been surprising since the offseason started. They signed Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault among others, making them the second-oldest team in the NHL, with an average age of 30.2. But they haven’t been scoring, which has led to struggles; they started 0-5 before breaking out in a 4-0 win over the Bruins this week.
Next seven days: @ CHI (Oct. 25), vs. CBJ (Oct. 26), @ TB (Oct. 28), vs. EDM (Oct. 31)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 35.71%
Biggest surprise: Turbo boost. Welcome back, Teuvo Teravainen. The 30-year-old began his NHL career as a Blackhawk before spending eight seasons with Carolina and now returning to Chicago. He’s tied with Seth Jones and Connor Bedard atop the Hawks’ scoring leaderboard and is tied with captain Nick Foligno with three goals. The Teravainen-Bedard tandem has clicked early; this looks to be a great fit through the early going.
Next seven days: vs. NSH (Oct. 25), @ DAL (Oct. 26), @ COL (Oct. 28), @ SJ (Oct. 31)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 35.71%
Biggest surprise: Lane Hutson. The Habs might not be a playoff team this season, but boy are they fun to watch. It seems like every game there is a jump-out-of-your-seat kind of moment being produced by one of their dazzling young players. It might not be as much of a surprise coming from a Cole Caufield or Nick Suzuki, but Lane Hutson has provided many of those. The analytics aren’t kind to him, but coach Martin St. Louis doesn’t seem fazed thus far. He is on the way to being a long-term defensive superstar for the Habs.
Next seven days: vs. STL (Oct. 26), @ PHI (Oct. 27), vs. SEA (Oct. 29), @ WSH (Oct. 31)
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 21.43%
Biggest surprise: Matvei-ry good. Matvei Michkov has arrived, and Flyers fans are loving it — especially his team-leading seven points through seven games. He has incredible puck handling, vision and shooting, and is playing top-line minutes. All of his three goals thus far have been on the power play; imagine what he will be once he unlocks his game at 5-on-5.
Next seven days: vs. MIN (Oct. 26), vs. MTL (Oct. 27), @ BOS (Oct. 29), vs. STL (Oct. 31)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 12.50%
Biggest surprise: Penalties. The Sharks are the last winless team in the NHL — and Macklin Celebrini is out of the lineup due to injury — but one glaring stat is that the Sharks have given up six power-play opportunities in three of their past four games. Cody Ceci mentioned it after the Sharks 3-1 loss to the Ducks on Tuesday: “Maybe stay off the refs a little bit too. Maybe they’ll start to call a little more in our favor.” Taking fewer trips to the sin bin may not be a cure-all, but it’s a start.
Next seven days: @ VGK (Oct. 26), @ UTA (Oct. 28), vs. LA (Oct. 29), vs. CHI (Oct. 31)