Superstar fits and conference contenders: Biggest preseason questions
Credit to Author: NBA Insiders| Date: Wed, 2 Oct 2024 11:28:24 EST
Luka Doncic explains how Klay Thompson’s arrival can affect the way the Mavericks’ offense works. (0:52)
It’s the start of October and NBA training camps are in full swing with the start of the 2024-25 season three weeks away.
Both conferences had a busy offseason with a few superstar shuffles and head-coaching changes that will shake up the landscape of the league.
Friday saw another blockbuster move that sent Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks in exchange for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. We’re itching to see how other newcomers, including Klay Thompson and Paul George, will fit alongside their superstar teammates and if first-time head coach JJ Redick can take on one of the most difficult jobs in the NBA.
Our NBA insiders answer some of the biggest preseason questions and give their predictions on who will have the toughest path to the conference finals, which superstar has the most to prove and more.
Ohm Youngmisuk: Thompson’s skillset is exactly what Dallas needs — a lethal outside shooter to complement Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. But Thompson is coming from a system that was predicated on constant and precise movement. Now the shooter will often be watching Doncic and Irving dominate the ball. In time, Thompson could be the ideal fit for Jason Kidd’s offense. Mikal Bridges, though, should be a perfect fit for the Knicks. His two-way game slides in nicely with the Knicks’ loaded lineup and the Villanova chemistry is already there.
Chris Herring: I’m extremely curious to see how Randle will gel with the Timberwolves. He deserves a ton of credit for becoming the player he did during his time with the Knicks, and making two All-NBA teams in New York. But playing alongside up-and-coming superstar Anthony Edwards in a new offense — and in a potential contract year — could be challenging; particularly from a spacing standpoint, although DiVincenzo will help when he’s on the floor. In terms of a fantastic, automatic fit, I really think Chris Paul will do damage alongside Victor Wembanyama if he’s able to stay healthy. The future Hall of Fame floor general always has, and that’s without ever having a center with anywhere near the talent this 20-year-old possesses.
Tim MacMahon: Thompson has the biggest adjustment to make with the Mavericks after spending the first 13 years of his future Hall of Fame career with the Golden State Warriors — going from one end of the ball- and player-movement spectrums to the other. Doncic will create plenty of open looks for Thompson, but the Mavs will need to make sure their summer addition feels like he’s in rhythm instead of simply being a weak-side, spot-up shooter. But the cleanest fit among big names who changed teams is Paul, even if he isn’t on a contending team. He’ll run the offense in San Antonio while imparting his wisdom upon the Spurs’ young players, including a certain 7-foot-5 prodigy.
Kevin Pelton: DeMar DeRozan is going to have to make the biggest adjustment spending more time off the ball. Based on Second Spectrum tracking data, DeRozan had the ball in his hands 27% of the time on offense last season with the Chicago Bulls. Now with the Sacramento Kings, DeRozan replaces Harrison Barnes, who had the ball in his hands 8% of the time. No Kings starter besides De’Aaron Fox had greater than 21% possession. Conversely, George’s versatile game should help him easily adjust to more spot-up opportunities playing with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey in Philadelphia.
Dave McMenamin: It figures that Thompson is the guy with a major adjustment coming his way. He is going from a partnership with an all-time type of player in Stephen Curry and winning four championships, to joining a team that is relying on him to be the missing piece after losing in the 2024 Finals. Meanwhile, the combination of Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein should assimilate swimmingly on the Oklahoma City Thunder. Their tenacity and passion should make for a perfect fit with that up-and-coming group.
Youngmisuk: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. The East is pulling away with the Boston Celtics defending a title, the Knicks loading up and adding Towns and the Sixers muscling up with George. Antetokounmpo, when healthy, is a top-three player. Now that they will have a full camp with Doc Rivers, Antetokounmpo and Lillard have to become the pair they envisioned they would be together. The window for this Milwaukee core could be rapidly closing.
Herring: Embiid. The Sixers have had some solid secondary stars throughout his time in Philly: Jimmy Butler, James Harden and, before injuries derailed things, Ben Simmons. Speedster Maxey, whom the Sixers extended on a max deal in July after he made his first All-Star team, could turn out to be Embiid’s best running mate. But George — the best perimeter shooter of that group and a still elite defender — ups the ante even more for Embiid and Philly. They finally have a good enough combination of top-end talent and depth to reach the conference finals. Embiid simply has to make it through the season healthy to give his team that chance.
MacMahon: Harden is still considered a star, right? He needs to prove that he should be, and the LA Clippers certainly need him to perform at that level with George in Philadelphia and Kawhi Leonard in perpetual medical limbo. If “The System” can’t revert to something resembling his Rockets-era scoring levels, the Clippers might be sending another lottery pick to Oklahoma City in the next draft.
Pelton: Embiid. This is mostly a matter of better luck, but him making it to the playoffs healthy and performing at the same MVP level we’ve seen during the regular season will become more important with a pair of All-Stars in Maxey and George around him. Despite their consistent success with Embiid, the Sixers still haven’t reached the Eastern Conference finals since 2001.
McMenamin: Doncic. After finishing third in MVP voting and coming up short in the NBA Finals, there is very little left for Doncic to clear before he could claim control of the league. His first six seasons have already been dominant by individual standards (his 28.7 points per game is the third highest scoring average ever behind only Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain while his 8.3 assists average ranks 12th during that span). He has the type of potential of breaking through and then ruling the roost for a decade plus. The question is, will he have the urgency to start that push now, fueled by that Celtics defeat (when he had a combined 15 turnovers in losses in Games 2 and 5), or will the 25-year-old need more time to reach that point?
Youngmisuk: It’s already tough enough to make the leap to coaching from the TV booth. But Redick has to do that while being under the red-hot glare that comes with being the Los Angeles Lakers‘ and LeBron James’ coach. Redick clearly has the acumen. But the Lakers and James don’t have the luxury of patience. Redick will have to go through growing pains while expected to get James as deep into the playoffs as possible. A quick start would certainly help.
Herring: Doc Rivers, who joined the Bucks in the middle of last season, still has a lot to prove. Time is limited in Milwaukee. Khris Middleton is 33. Lillard is 34. Brook Lopez is 36. And even though Antetokounmpo is in his prime, turning 30 in December, he plays a highly physical brand of basketball and has missed the majority of the past two postseasons with injuries. Will Rivers help the Bucks get back to defensive dominance? If so, this team is a real contender when healthy. If not? It’s always easier to move on from a coach — even after making a midseason change last year — than it is to shake up a roster with a superstar in his prime.
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MacMahon: Redick knew what he signed up for when he left his comfortable seats in the broadcast booth and podcast studios for the most pressure-packed job in the NBA. The priority on player development is nice and all, but time is of the essence for a Lakers team that is built around soon-to-be 40-year-old legend James.
Pelton: The clock is ticking on the Phoenix Suns‘ core. Kevin Durant celebrated his 37th birthday over the weekend, meaning coach Mike Budenholzer needs to deliver the same kind of immediate impact he made with the Bucks — who jumped from 44 wins to 60 after his arrival and the addition of Brook Lopez — to help the Suns contend before it’s too late.
McMenamin: Similarly to Doc and Bud, Kenny Atkinson is taking over a Cleveland Cavaliers team with major expectations. However, he doesn’t have a championship-stamped résumé he can point to when getting buy-in from his new squad. JB Bickerstaff led the Cavs to a .581 winning percentage over the past three seasons, but had just one playoff series win to show for it. Atkinson — who led the Nets to a 42-40 record in his most successful season in Brooklyn — will be tasked with improving upon what’s already been established in Cleveland.
Youngmisuk: The Sixers could have a tougher time finding their stride than the Celtics and Knicks. Boston already has championship chemistry. The Knicks will have to incorporate a new massive piece in Towns, but at least Tom Thibodeau has coached him before and Bridges, Jalen Brunson, and Josh Hart have their Villanova familiarity to allow Towns time to fit in. In Philadelphia, a city famously known for having little patience, Embiid, Maxey and George will have to figure each other out quickly while keeping pace with the Celtics and Knicks.
Herring: Milwaukee, simply because it’s an older group that’s had both health issues and defensive challenges since bringing in Lillard and shipping out Jrue Holiday. There’s reason to believe things will be better defensively with a full offseason together. But will they be good enough on that end to be a championship-caliber club in the next year or two? Things will need to break in their favor for them to have that chance.
MacMahon: The Knicks addressed their gaping hole in the middle of the starting lineup with the Towns blockbuster deal, but New York sacrificed depth and will be making a major adjustment on the fly to start the season. One glaring question: Can Towns anchor a contender-caliber defense, even when he’s surrounded by wings who excel on that end of the floor? And with all due respect to Towns and Brunson, who has improved his scoring average each of the past four seasons, the Knicks still have the least star power among the East’s legitimate contenders.
Pelton: Ask me in April! For now, I’ll note that even if the Indiana Pacers take a step forward after winning 47 games last season, they’ll probably have a much more difficult path getting back to the Eastern Conference finals because of the injuries that limited other contenders last season. Add in the 76ers upgrading with George, and whoever makes this year’s conference finals will surely overcome stiffer tests to get there.
McMenamin: New York. The hype for that team has reached such a fever pitch that New York City deputy mayor Philip Banks III tried to spark a Knicks conversation with a reporter to avoid questions about mayor Eric Adams’ indictment. The team sent out a press release about Brunson being named team captain. And now that they added a talent like Towns to plug the hole left by Hartenstein’s departure and Mitchell Robinson‘s injury — no matter how delicate his fit might be — they’ll have to coalesce quickly or risk being scrutinized on the daily. New Yorkers are begging for this to be “the year” and there will be pressure for this group to perform every step of the way.
Youngmisuk: The Denver Nuggets‘ path back to the NBA Finals is tougher after losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in free agency. Since winning the title, the Nuggets have lost critically important role players like KCP and Bruce Brown, and vocal leaders like Jeff Green. Nikola Jokic remains the best player in the world, but the players around him are slightly different. Christian Braun steps up into the starting five. Russell Westbrook will now be relied on to bring the energy, hustle, athleticism and defense off the bench. And Michael Malone will have to get the best out of younger players like Peyton Watson and perhaps Julian Strawther. Jamal Murray also will have to stay healthy. Jokic will continue to be brilliant, but he will have to see if this supporting cast can get it done in a West that is tougher and younger up top.
Herring: Depending on where you draw the line at “contender,” I’m not sure any team in the West jumps out. But I am really curious to see how the Nuggets’ Braun does with an expanded role in his third season. The Nuggets passed on an opportunity to bring back free agent Caldwell-Pope, who won two titles as a veteran role player and opted to sign with the Orlando Magic. The 23-year-old Braun is solid (remember his series-altering performance in Game 3 of the 2023 Finals?) but figures to be asked to play far more than the 20 minutes per night he logged last year. How he fares as a starter could play a big role in determining whether the Nuggets can win another title.
MacMahon: Calvin Booth will always deserve credit for acquiring the final two elements to the Nuggets’ championship puzzle during his first summer as general manager, but it’s difficult to envision another parade in Denver after losing Brown and Caldwell-Pope in free agency the past two offseasons. Nothing is impossible with Jokic in his prime, but the Nuggets have a rocky path to climb for another ring and in a stacked conference.
Pelton: I was as surprised as everyone else that my stats-based wins projections had the Minnesota Timberwolves so low, but there were reasons to question whether they could repeat last year’s conference finals run before the Towns trade. Minnesota enjoyed strong health, particularly on the perimeter, one reason adding DiVincenzo to offer more a proven reserve alongside Nickeil Alexander-Walker was so important. The flip side of that is now the Timberwolves must rebuild the strong chemistry last year’s team enjoyed.
McMenamin: Hate to be redundant, but it’s Denver. When you have a leader heralded as the best player in the world like Jokic and you already won with him, it is on the franchise to perpetually restock around him to stack titles. Since the championship, the Nuggets have been stagnant at best — and have regressed at worst — while the rest of the West has gotten better.