Betting buzz: Jayden Daniels takes OROY odds lead, Josh Allen MVP favorite
Credit to Author: ESPN| Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2024 18:41:38 EST
Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans with a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page | ESPN BET 
Doug Greenberg: A pair of spectacular Monday Night Football performances in Week 3 finally vaulted two quarterbacks into the favorite spots for their respective awards.
Jayden Daniels had a banner evening in his third career start, completing an astounding 21 of 23 pass attempts for 254 yards and two touchdowns, adding 39 rushing yards and another TD in the Washington Commanders‘ big upset of the Cincinnati Bengals. The electrifying performance had bettors rushing to bet on him to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, with Daniels attracting a leading 40% of bets and 71.3% of handle at ESPN BET since last Thursday.
The impressive display and proceeding betting action moved the LSU and Arizona State product from +300 on Sunday morning to the top of the odds board at +165 immediately following the end of Monday’s game. As of Thursday morning, Daniels sits at +150 to win the rookie honor.
Next on the odds board is New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers (+260), who briefly topped the list on Sunday after a stellar performance in the New York Giants’ own upset of the Cleveland Browns. No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams, who continues to disappoint for the Chicago Bears, has fallen from the first position to fourth at +700.
In the MVP race, Josh Allen (+225) finally cemented his favorite status over Patrick Mahomes (+260) after he tossed four TD passes in the Buffalo Bills’ decimation of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Allen moved into the lead before halftime of Monday night’s contest, per ESPN Research.
Prior to Monday evening, Allen was situated just behind Mahomes at +425 and +225, respectively. Since last Thursday, Allen has taken 51.3% of the wagers and 38.3% of the money at ESPN BET. No other player is particularly close in the odds to the duo of QBs, with C.J. Stroud coming in next at +1300.
And while it’s still very much a long shot, Daniels is making some noise in the MVP market as well, taking 3.1% of the bets (sixth) and handle (10th) since last Thursday. He shows 100-1 odds to win the NFL’s highest individual honor.
Mel Kiper Jr. discusses the new era of college football after UNLV quarterback Matthew Sluka decided to redshirt midseason over NIL disagreements.
David Purdum: Undefeated UNLV (3-0) went from favorite to underdog in Saturday’s game against Fresno State after Rebels starting quarterback Matthew Sluka announced he was leaving the team.
UNLV was as high as a 4.5-point favorite over Fresno State early in the week, before Sluka announced on social media Tuesday night that he would not be playing for the Rebels any more this season due to unfulfilled commitments. Sluka, a senior transfer from Holy Cross, said on social media that he was given “certain representations” when he chose to enroll at UNLV and that they had not been fulfilled.
On Wednesday morning, Fresno State was listed as a 1-point favorite at ESPN BET. The over/under total, which opened around 52.5 at most sportsbooks, was down to 48.5 on Wednesday.
Sluka led the Rebels to their first 3-0 start since 1994, passing for six touchdowns and rushing for another score in his first three games with UNLV. UNLV’s depth chart lists seniors Hajj-Malik Williams and Cameron Friel as backup quarterbacks.
Doug Greenberg: Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris and New York Giants running back Devin Singletary were both stopped just short of the goal late in their respective early Sunday slate games. Those simple actions provided a huge, unlikely win for a large number of under bettors.
The total in Chargers-Steelers closed at 35.5 according to ESPN BET odds, the lowest over/under thus far this NFL season. Pittsburgh drove down the field with a 20-10 lead late in the fourth quarter, only for Los Angeles to stuff them at the one-yard line after a first down, clearing the way for the Steelers to kneel it out for the win.
Chargers-Steelers represented the third-most-bet under of the day at ESPN BET and the second-most-bet at BetMGM, with both books reporting upwards of 66% of wagers pulling for a low-scoring game. It was also ESPN BET’s third-most-bet game of the day by handle overall.
The Giants-Browns under was even more universally bet at the two books, with both reporting it as their most-bet under of the day by tickets; over 80% of wagers and 84% of money were on the under, which closed at 38.5 at ESPN BET.
Like Harris, Singletary also didn’t make it into the endzone to cash the over — but unlike Harris, Singletary intentionally slid at the one yard line, allowing New York to kneel out the clock from there. Ecstasy for under backers, agony for over backers.
Doug Greenberg: On Saturday, the James Madison Dukes notched one of their biggest statement wins since joining the FBS in 2022, taking down the North Carolina Tar Heels 70-50 in Chapel Hill. JMU entered the contest as an 11-point underdog, making them just the second team in the last 30 seasons to drop 70 points in a game where they entered as a double-digit dog.
Those 70 points are tied for the most allowed by UNC in a game in school history, while its 50 points scored are tied for the most in a loss in school history; they are also the second team in the AP poll era (since 1936) to score at least 50 points and lose by at least 20.
The high scoring affair blew past the relatively low pregame total of 48.5, per ESPN BET odds, with the 71.5 points over the total representing the largest over cover margin this season and the largest since 2022. It’s the most combined points in a non-overtime game with a pregame total below 50 since 2004.
While the Tar Heels certainly did their part, it was the Dukes leading the way on scoring from the jump: With 53 points in the first half, James Madison became the first road team to go over the total by themselves in the first half since 2006. In general this season, it’s the second game to hit its total in the first half.
ESPN Research contributed reporting for this story.