Matchup rankings: Carr, Aiyuk primed for success
Credit to Author: Tristan H. Cockcroft| Date: Fri, 20 Sep 2024 15:03:27 EST
Field Yates and Mike Clay explain why they are satisfied with Joe Burrow leading the Bengals in Week 3 vs. the Commanders. (0:59)
Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you’re torn between two similar players and simply don’t know which one to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
Let’s get the bad-news response out of the way first: Week 1 is the toughest week as far as evaluating matchups. It’s commonplace for fantasy analysis to rely heavily upon the previous year’s statistics, even though that completely ignores how quickly and dramatically the game changes, especially over a seven-month offseason.
The matchup ranks below provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
For the first three weeks, these rankings are entirely my opinion of how favorable or unfavorable I consider that matchup, though 2023 full-season data is provided to give you another snapshot into the strength of that particular matchup.
“Adj. FPA,” or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players’ weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team’s personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my — and the ESPN fantasy staff’s — most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
The 2024 season is here and there’s still time to start fresh with a 0-0 record. Create a league with friends and family, or join a public league. Your championship run starts today! Sign Up Now >>
Matchups highlight: Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints (vs. Philadelphia Eagles). The talk of the NFL has been Klint Kubiak‘s recalibrated Saints offense, within which Carr has scored 21-plus fantasy points in each of his two games for a second-best mark among quarterbacks total of 43.12. Carr, by the way, has done that despite his Saints being the league’s most run-heavy offense (64%/36% play split). Carr’s comfort was Kubiak’s goal with his scheme changes, however, and this is a game much more likely to lean pass-oriented, indicated by its high over/under and near-even spread. The Eagles haven’t given up huge fantasy scores to quarterbacks in either of their two games, but they’re ninth in total points allowed to the position and, like the Saints’ first two opponents, they’ve graded below-average in terms of pass rush (18th-ranked 40.8% win rate). Carr should continue to get plenty of time to throw, and he probably will have closer to his 2023 average of 32.2 throws.
Others to like: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (at Los Angeles Rams); Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Washington Commanders).
Matchup to avoid: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Chicago Bears). Richardson struggled against a strong Green Bay Packers secondary in Week 2, scoring only 9.86 fantasy points while struggling to find chemistry with his No. 1 receiver, Michael Pittman Jr. The latter seems likely to extend into Week 3, considering Pittman’s likelihood of frequent one-on-one matchups with Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson. Bear in mind that this defense has surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks since the midpoint of last season, and it has been especially tough against quarterbacks who have some mobility, surrendering only one rushing score to the position since the beginning of 2023.
“DEF to avoid” and “DEF to exploit” columns rank team defenses in terms of strength of matchup; “Opp.”: Week 2 opponent; “Rk”: Matchup ranking, where 1 is the toughest defense and 32 is the easiest defense to face; “Adj. FPA”: The number of fantasy points that defense added or subtracted from its opponent.
Daniel Dopp shares his thoughts on starting Browns RB duo Jerome Ford and D’Onta Foreman against the Giants.
Matchups highlight: Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns (vs. New York Giants). The Giants have seen three different running backs score 11-plus PPR fantasy points against them the first two weeks, and for the season they have surrendered the eighth-most points to the position (53.0). That they’re a road underdog for this game only heightens the chance of positive game script for the Browns, which will certainly please Ford’s managers after he was sparsely used in Week 2. Yes, D’Onta Foreman has cut into Ford’s workload more than expected the first two weeks, absorbing 14 of 36 carries that went to running backs and playing a near-equal rate of snaps to Ford last week (38% to Ford’s 42%), but Ford was the one with stronger Week 2 metrics as well as the team’s two longest runs (36 and 12 yards). Expect Ford to be the clear lead back in this game, facing an extremely favorable matchup.
Others to like: Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Denver Broncos); D’Andre Swift, Bears (at Indianapolis).
Matchup to avoid: Kyren Williams, Rams (vs. 49ers). After grading as one of the eight toughest defenses against the position in 2023, the 49ers have afforded running backs the 13th-fewest PPR fantasy points through two weeks, and keep in mind that they faced one of the game’s best in Breece Hall in Week 1. Hall averaged only 3.4 yards per carry in that game, scoring 18.3 points, largely thanks to his converting a goal-line run in the first quarter. Besides the matchup, injuries to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have depleted the strength of the Rams’ offense, which could have an adverse effect on Williams’ role and production. The Rams, after all, are the week’s biggest underdog among home teams.
“DEF to avoid” and “DEF to exploit” columns rank team defenses in terms of strength of matchup; “Opp.”: Week 3 opponent; “Rk”: Matchup ranking, where 1 is the toughest defense and 32 is the easiest defense to face; “Adj. FPA”: The number of fantasy points that defense added or subtracted from its opponent.
Field Yates expresses doubts that Brandon Aiyuk will have a great fantasy game against the Rams.
Matchups highlight: Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers (at Rams). Injuries to Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel Sr. are sure to demand some creativity from coach Kyle Shanahan, and Aiyuk stands out as his probable centerpiece in this matchup. The Rams have struggled mightily to contain opponents’ passing games through two weeks, surrendering 2.4 PPR yards per target to both wide receivers and tight ends (tuck that away, if you’re a George Kittle manager), as well as league worsts with seven catches of 20-plus yards and 7.3 yards after the catch per reception to wide receivers specifically. Considering Aiyuk has had 29% of his catches go for 20-plus yards since the beginning of 2022, he’s primed to capitalize.
Others to like: Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars); Rome Odunze, Bears (at Colts).
Matchup to avoid: Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars (at Bills). Kirk is off to a miserable start to 2024, catching only two of seven targets for 4.9 PPR fantasy points through two weeks, and he’s unlikely to begin turning his season around, considering this matchup. The Bills have afforded opposing wide receivers only 1.19 PPR fantasy points per target through two weeks, fourth fewest in the league, and that’s in spite of them having faced three of the position’s top 25 in terms of average draft position (No. 1 Tyreek Hill, 6.6 PPR fantasy points in Week 2; No. 10 Marvin Harrison Jr., 1.4 in Week 1; No. 24 Jaylen Waddle 8.5 in Week 2).
“DEF to avoid” and “DEF to exploit” columns rank team defenses in terms of strength of matchup; “Opp.”: Week 3 opponent; “Rk”: Matchup ranking, where 1 is the toughest defense and 32 is the easiest defense to face; “Adj. FPA”: The number of fantasy points that defense added or subtracted from its opponent.
Check out the key fantasy numbers for Falcons TE Kyle Pitts ahead of his matchup against the Chiefs in Week 3.
Matchups highlight: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Kansas City Chiefs). The Chiefs have not only surrendered the most PPR fantasy points to the position (58.6), they’ve done so by a staggering 21.4-point margin, and that’s before getting into who has accumulated that production. Isaiah Likely dropped an unexpected 26.1 points on the Chiefs in Week 1, and Mike Gesicki 16.1 last week, with the two averaging 2.0 points per target in the process. Pitts hasn’t yet played a big role in the Falcons’ offense, but to be fair, quarterback Kirk Cousins didn’t seem to really find his rhythm until the latter stages of Week 2. Cousins will be tasked with throwing early and often in this matchup, and Pitts seems likely to capitalize.
Matchup to avoid: Dalton Kincaid, Bills (vs. Jaguars). Though the Jaguars haven’t faced any tight ends with a skill set similar to Kincaid’s, they have still thoroughly dominated the position through two weeks, affording only 5.3 PPR fantasy points on seven targets. In fact, going back to the midpoint of last season, the Jaguars have given up only 9.6 points per game to tight ends, sixth fewest in the league. Opponents have had far more success targeting wide receivers than tight ends against this defense, meaning that Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman should play larger roles in Week 3.
“DEF to avoid” and “DEF to exploit” columns rank team defenses in terms of strength of matchup; “Opp.”: Week 3 opponent; “Rk”: Matchup ranking, where 1 is the toughest defense and 32 is the easiest defense to face; “Adj. FPA”: The number of fantasy points that defense added or subtracted from its opponent.