2024 Heisman Trophy and CFP bets: Manning enters conversation
Credit to Author: Pamela Maldonado| Date: Wed, 18 Sep 2024 13:44:35 EST
Pat McAfee and A.J. Hawk laugh off the notion that Longhorns QB Arch Manning isn’t a Heisman Trophy contender alongside teammate Quinn Ewers. (2:07)
After three weeks of the 2024 college football season, the landscape for both the Heisman Trophy and the national championship races have begun to take shape. Miami quarterback Cam Ward has made a huge jump to the top, while Texas quarterback Arch Manning has entered the conversation.
The expanded 12-team playoff format has kept more teams in contention, with multiple programs like Alabama seeing its odds improve. As we enter Week 4, the odds at ESPN BET reflect both early season performances and the potential for teams to make a run at the playoffs in the new format.
All odds are accurate as of timestamp. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
Last week: +800
Ward has emerged as the new favorite to win the Heisman after Week 3. His dominance in his first three games with Miami has been historic, becoming the first quarterback in Hurricanes history to open a season with three consecutive 300-yard passing performances. Ward’s impressive statistics include: 1,035 yards, 11 touchdowns and only one interception with a 73% completion rate.
At this pace, Ward is on track to break several school records. His performances have garnered national attention, with analysts and fans already projecting him as a top NFL draft prospect.
Miami’s success is closely tied to Ward’s performance, with the team now considered a favorite to win the ACC (+125) and potentially make the College Football Playoff (-200). This increased visibility is likely to keep Ward in the national spotlight throughout the season, further bolstering his Heisman candidacy.
Last week: (+500)
Ewers, the betting favorite after Week 2, saw his Heisman odds plummet following an injury early in the Longhorns’ win over UTSA. Ewers sustained an abdominal strain in the second quarter, forcing him out of the game and potentially sidelining him for at least the next week.
Last week: 150-1
Manning saw his Heisman odds skyrocket after an impressive showing in relief of the injured Ewers. His performance against UTSA (223 passing yards, four touchdowns and a 67-yard rushing score) has thrust Manning into the Heisman conversation.
The nephew of NFL legends Peyton and Eli Manning carries significant name recognition that, combined with his performance, explains Arch’s dramatic odds improvement.
He could see extended playing time in the Longhorns’ upcoming game against UL Monroe, and with Ewers out, the matchup presents the perfect opportunity for Manning to further enhance his stats and strengthen his Heisman case.
Last week: +3500
I mentioned Jeanty last week at 35-1. Despite Boise State’s bye week, Jeanty’s Heisman odds have improved significantly. His remarkable start to the season has put him on pace to challenge Barry Sanders’ historic 1988 records.
If Jeanty maintains his current pace, he’ll finish the season with 2,754 rushing yards and 54 touchdowns, which would shatter Sanders’ marks (2,628, 37). After just two games, Jeanty stats are impressive: 459 yards, nine touchdowns and an incredible 10.2 yards per carry.
Jeanty faces 0-2 FCS squad Portland State, presenting an opportunity to further pad his stats. However, as a Group of 5 player, Jeanty faces significant challenges in the Heisman race. The last G5 player to win the Heisman was in 1963.
Jeanty’s quick odds movement (from +3500 to +2200) reflects growing recognition of his exceptional performance. If he can maintain this pace against stronger competition in future games, Jeanty could continue to climb in the Heisman race, despite the historical disadvantage faced by G5 players.
After Week 3 of the 2024 college football season, the top three teams to win the National Championship according to ESPN BET have not changed with Georgia leading the way followed by Ohio State and Texas.
Tennessee continues to be an intriguing team to watch. Its odds to make the playoff have shifted dramatically: last week I mentioned the Vols were +115 to make the playoff. Current odds have them -200. This shift reflects changes in key game predictions. After Week 2, Georgia had a 70% chance to beat Tennessee later this season. After Week 3, those chances dropped to 54%.
While Tennessee will likely still be underdogs against Alabama and Georgia, the odds may be shorter than previously anticipated. For those bullish on Tennessee’s prospects, a potentially more lucrative strategy would be to back Tennessee as an underdog against Alabama and if successful, roll those winnings into an underdog bet against Georgia.
This approach could potentially yield better returns than the current -200 odds to make the playoff.
The dramatic shift in Tennessee’s playoff odds (from +115 to -200) underscores the volatility of college football predictions and the impact of key games on a team’s perceived chances. As the season progresses, these odds may continue to fluctuate based on performance and results of crucial matchups.
In late August, I posted a social media post explaining my preseason love for the Cornhuskers.
Let’s just ignore the Colorado Buffaloes hype for a second and focus on Nebraska. Their potential for a breakout season in 2024 was evident even before the season began. Key factors supporting this outlook include positive regression from 2023’s 5-7 record (four losses by three points or less), Matt Rhule’s proven track record in talent development, returning veteran talent on defense, and a manageable schedule through the first half of the season.
Nebraska’s strong start to the 2024 season is highlighted by several impressive statistics:
Dylan Raiola: 70%-plus completion percentage in each of his first three games (last achieved by Heisman winner Marcus Mariota in 2012)
Team scoring: 100-plus points while allowing 20 or fewer through the first three games (first time since 1999)
Nebraska will have two critical games that will test its playoff potential: Week 3 against (3-0) Illinois, followed by a road game in Week 4 at Indiana.
A win against Illinois could significantly boost Nebraska’s credibility as a playoff contender.
While taking Nebraska to make the playoff at +700 odds offers intriguing value, consider a moneyline rollover parlay on Nebraska as underdogs in key games against Ohio State, USC and Iowa.
This strategy could potentially yield better returns than the straight playoff bet, especially if Nebraska continues to exceed expectations.
The coming weeks, particularly the games against Illinois and Indiana, will provide crucial insights into Nebraska’s true potential. A strong performance in these matchups could further improve the Cornhuskers’ playoff odds and validate their early-season success.