Betting buzz: Raiders, Buccaneers continue big underdog winning streak
Credit to Author: ESPN| Date: Sun, 15 Sep 2024 21:53:54 EST
Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans with a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page | ESPN BET
Doug Greenberg: For the second time in as many weeks, the biggest underdog of the week won straight up over their heavily favored opponent. This time, it was the Las Vegas Raiders (+8.5) taking down the Baltimore Ravens on the road, 26-23.
The game was the third-largest outright upset according to the spread in Ravens history. The Raiders were down by 10 points on two separate occasions in the contest, with their longest in-game odds peaking at 20-1 around 3:40 p.m. ET.
Raiders-Ravens was the most-bet game of the day at ESPN BET with 69.3% of bets and 56.1% of handle on Baltimore to cover the spread. The Ravens attracted the most money of any team to cover at Bet MGM — though the book also reports that Las Vegas (+350) was among the most-bet moneyline underdogs by tickets.
Another popular underdog on the moneyline was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who took down the Detroit Lions straight up as 7.5-point dogs. Combined with the New England Patriots outright win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1, 2024 marks the first time since 2003 that three favorites of more than seven points have lost in the first two weeks of the season, per ESPN Stats & Information.
David Purdum: As the football weekend approaches, here’s a quick overview of which teams and players have received the most support from bettors at sportsbooks this week:
Baltimore Ravens -8.5 (vs. Las Vegas Raiders): The Ravens have garnered more betting interest than any other team this week at multiple sportsbooks. They’re tops at DraftKings in the number of bets and the amount of money wagered. At BetRivers, there had been more bets on the Baltimore money line — the odds to win the game straight up — than any other NFL bet on the board.
Los Angeles Chargers -5 (at Carolina Panthers): The Chargers minus the points is the most popular spread bet at BetMGM, by number of bets and by amount of money wagered, and the second-most popular at DraftKings in both categories behind the Ravens
Entering the week, the Chargers entered the week as a consensus 4.5-point favorite. The line grew as high as -6.5 on Tuesday, before settling back at -5 as of Friday.
Of note at BetRivers’ sportsbooks: While the Chargers have attracted the bulk of the spread bets (89%), the underdog Panthers have garnered 81% of the money that had been wagered as of Friday. In fact, more money had been bet on the Panthers than any other NFL side entering the weekend.
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD: Taylor has been the most popular pick to score a touchdown of any player offered at ESPN BET. He’s listed at even money at ESPN BET to score in Sunday’s game against the Green Bay Packers.
Doug Greenberg: For the first time since Tua Tagovailoa’s very first start against the Buffalo Bills, the Miami Dolphins are favored in a game against their division rivals, showing a -2.5 point spread at home for “Thursday Night Football”.
In that initial matchup, the final game of the 2020 regular season for both teams, the Dolphins were 3-point home favorites. The Bills would go on to win that one 56-26 for a cover margin of 33 points, the largest in the seven games the two sides have played against each other in the Tagovailoa era.
Buffalo has largely dominated the series, having been a favorite in every game since that first one, prior to Thursday’s contest, and posting records of 4-2-1 against the spread and 6-1 straight up. The Bills also show an average cover margin of 11.9 in the series. Miami’s only covers over that period were both in the 2022 season when they won a game straight up as 4-point underdogs and covered a 7-point underdog spread in the other. The Bills covered both of last season’s meetings and QB Josh Allen is 11-2 outright against the Dolphins including the playoffs.
Still, that hasn’t stopped bettors from supporting the Dolphins’ spread en masse for “Thursday Night Football.” At ESPN BET, Miami -2.5 has 58.3% of the bets and 71.9% of the handle, which may have played a role in moving the line from its opener at a pick ’em to its current position. BetMGM also reports 54% of the tickets and 61% of the money on the Dolphins spread.
“Bettors are all over the Dolphins tonight; a Bills cover is ideal for the sportsbook,” said BetMGM senior trading manager Tristan Davis. “Additionally, we are cheering for anyone except for Josh Allen and Tyreek Hill to find the end zone.”
The sportsbook reports big liability on Allen for an anytime touchdown, while Hill has taken a lot of money to score the first touchdown. ESPN BET also says that Allen is its most-bet anytime TD scorer, as well as the most popular pick for non-TD props (over 250+ passing yards).
While it’s probably a much less significant amount of total handle, Buffalo is getting some love as a small underdog on the moneyline. ESPN BET has 66.9% of its bets on the Bills to win, while BetMGM reports 67%.
Greenberg: After one week of NFL play, two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes continues to stand atop the MVP oddsboard after completing 71% of his passes for 291 yards, a touchdown and an interception in the Kansas City Chiefs‘ win over the Baltimore Ravens. His odds to win the league’s highest individual honor for a third time moved from +500 before the season to +375 at ESPN BET.
But by far the biggest mover for MVP betting after Week 1 was Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. The 28-year-old, who is seeking his first MVP honor in his seventh NFL season, put up a monster game in Buffalo’s 34-28 win over the Arizona Cardinals, passing for 232 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing for 39 yards and two more scores.
The performance moved his MVP odds from +1000 prior to Sunday’s game to +550, placing him right behind Mahomes and allowing him to leapfrog C.J. Stroud (+850) and Joe Burrow (+1600, down from his opener of +900). Jalen Hurts (+1100), Brock Purdy (+1600) and Lamar Jackson (+1600) round out the top MVP candidates.
Ahead of last Sunday, Allen ranked fourth in MVP betting, taking 7% of bets and handle at ESPN BET. Since kickoff on Sunday, Allen has taken a leading 16% of tickets and 25% of money, which likely played a factor in his odds shortening. At BetMGM, Allen now has 8.5% of the handle, behind only Mahomes (14.1%), Stroud (8.8%) and Jared Goff (8.8%).
Goff didn’t have the flashiest of opening weeks, but it was enough to get his Detroit Lions a primetime win against his former team, the Los Angeles Rams. Goff sits at +1800 after opening at +4000 and has taken 8% of bets and 7% of handle since Sunday midday. He’s also firmly in the top five overall for tickets and money at DraftKings.
Two other quarterbacks who saw increased action off of strong Week 1s include Dak Prescott (+1800) and Baker Mayfield (+7500). Since the start of play on Sunday, the Dallas Cowboys QB has taken 20% of handle, behind Allen and Mahomes at 22%, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signal caller has taken 14% of bets, behind only Allen.
David Purdum: Notre Dame entered the week with an impressive road win over Texas A&M under its belt and 16-1 odds to win the national championship. The Fighting Irish’s title odds tumbled all the way to 75-1 at ESPN BET after an epic upset loss to Northern Illinois on Saturday in South Bend.
The visiting Huskies from the MAC were 28.5-point underdogs and around 25-1 to win the game outright. They pulled the biggest upset of the season so far and the largest point spread-wise since 2021.
Notre Dame had been 51-1 when favored by at least 25 points since 1978, according to ESPN Stats & Info, but the Irish couldn’t shake the Huskies, who took the lead with a field goal with less than a minute to play and withstood a last-gasp drive by the Irish that ended with a blocked field goal.
There were some, but not a lot, of bettors who believed in the Huskies. BetMGM reported that 67% percent of the money-line bets on the game were on Northern Illinois. Chris Andrews, veteran Las Vegas bookmaker with South Point casino, said he took a total of $12 in money-line bets on Northern Illinois. He joked that his boss could afford the payout. The Huskies are the largest underdogs to pull an outright upset since Kansas beat Texas in 2021 as a 31-point underdog.
Purdum: The Texas Longhorns opened as 3.5-point road favorites against the Michigan Wolverines way back in April at ESPN BET. Five months later, the No. 3 Longhorns are favored by more than a touchdown over the No. 10 Wolverines and attracting lopsided action at sportsbooks heading into their showdown in Ann Arbor.
The consensus line was sitting at Texas -7.5 on Friday. ESPN BET reported that approximately 80% of the money that had been bet on the game’s point spread was on the favored Longhorns. BetMGM said Texas minus the points was the most popular college football bet on the board entering the weekend, followed by the Tennessee Volunteers, who were growing favorites versus the NC State Wolfpack. The Volunteers had attracted 92.3% of the money wagered on the point spread at ESPN BET.
Texas blasted Colorado State 51-0 on its opener, while Michigan struggled to put away Fresno State last week. Now, the Wolverines find themselves as home underdogs for the first time since 2021, when they upended Ohio State. Michigan is the seventh reigning national champion in the last 45 years to be a home underdog in the following season, according to ESPN Stats and Information.
Top five Week 2 college football games by money wagered at ESPN BET:
1. No. 3 Texas at No. 10 Michigan
2. No. 14 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 24 NC State Wolfpack
3. Iowa State Cyclones at No. Iowa Hawkeyes
4. Colorado Buffaloes at Nebraska Cornhuskers
5. No. 23 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Syracuse Orange
See every top-25 college football game line here, expert picks for Texas vs. Michigan, and more betting tips in Week 2.
Pamela Maldonado: In one of the most dramatic line moves for Week 2 of the college football season, early sharp money on the No. 15 Tennessee Volunteers caused an initial move from 4.5 to 7.5. On Thursday, continued betting pushed it even further to 10 ahead of their matchup with the No. 24 NC State Wolfpack.
Tennessee had a dominant 69-3 win over Chattanooga in its season opener. It was an impressive Week 1 performance that has bettors leading to wager on the Vols.
Meanwhile, NC State had an underwhelming opener, struggling more than expected against Western Carolina and needing 21 unanswered fourth-quarter points to seal a 38-21 win as a 32-point favorite.
This relatively poor performance against an FCS opponent might have caused bettors to lose confidence in NC State.
Value is with the Wolfpack. Credit is not being given to NC State quarterback Grayson McCall, who could gradually improve after returning from injury. McCall suffered a concussion last October with former team Coastal Carolina and missed the remainder of the 2023 season.
McCall mentioned that he had some nerves in his NC State debut, and acknowledged that the team didn’t play its best, but said he was happy the Pack came away with the win. He also noted that it took some time to settle in, as it had been 313 days since his last competitive college football game. The line jumping out to 10 could be quite the overreaction.
See every top-25 college football game line here, and more betting tips in Week 2.
Doug Greenberg: Week 1 of the NFL is generally marked by parity when it comes to betting. While the football teams are feeling each other out on the field, bettors and bookmakers are doing the same off of it, often leading to tight betting lines.
The long opening weekend of NFL action in 2024 has no double-digit favorites, with the Cincinnati Bengals being the largest at -8.5 over the New England Patriots, but that’s not too out of the ordinary, as 2019 was the last Week 1 to feature a double-digit favorite at all.
What is a bit more peculiar is the advantage sportsbooks are giving to home teams to begin the season: In Week 1, only two teams are favored on the road, tied with 1991 for the fewest to begin any season in the Super Bowl era, according to ESPN Stats and Info.
The first road favorites are the Houston Texans, who are giving three points to the Indianapolis Colts, per ESPN BET. DeMeco Ryans’ squad has been one of the most hyped teams of the offseason and has the futures handle to prove it, so it should come as little surprise that the public is backing them to begin the campaign. Houston has 78.1% of the tickets and 51.9% of the handle at ESPN BET, while BetMGM reports 78% of the wagers and 81% of the money for the Texans to cover.
That heavy action likely had a role to play in moving Houston to its current position from the opening line of -1.5. The same goes for the Minnesota Vikings, who actually opened as one-point underdogs before crossing the line to become 1.5-point favorites over the New York Giants.
ESPN BET says 63.8% of its tickets and 69.8% of its handle is on the Vikings to cover, while BetMGM reports 70% of bets and 69% of handle.
This matchup, even with the big line move, is a lot closer than the other in the eyes of bettors. FanDuel notes that 55% of tickets and 66% of handle is on the Giants to cover the underdog spread, and, further, all three books report the majority of bet and handle share on New York to win the game outright, currently lined up at +105 on ESPN BET.
Doug Greenberg: The last time the New York Jets won the AFC East, their 40-year-old quarterback had just started college and their star cornerback was 2 years old. Yet despite not winning their division since 2002 — tied with the Las Vegas Raiders for the second-longest active drought in the NFL behind only the Cleveland Browns — the Jets find themselves as the consensus favorites to win it this season.
At ESPN BET, New York shows +160 odds to win the AFC East, ahead of the Buffalo Bills (+185), Miami Dolphins (+225) and New England Patriots (+2500). The Jets opened at +275 to initially put them behind Buffalo and Miami, but very heavy action from the betting public forced the dramatic line movement.
Gang Green has received easily the highest share of bets and handle across several of the major American sportsbooks, attracting 58% of handle at ESPN BET, 67.4% at BetMGM, 50% at DraftKings and 43% at FanDuel. In all of those cases, the share of money is larger than the share of tickets, indicating that it’s not just small-wagers bettors taking fliers on the Jets.
To compensate, sportsbooks have lengthened the odds on the division’s other teams, with ESPN BET moving the Bills from +130 to +185 and the Dolphins from +200 to +225.
New York has also proven to be a popular bet in the conference championship market, taking 24% of the bets to win the AFC, more than any other team — though the handle numbers are not as impressive and fewer bettors are taking the Jets to win the Super Bowl.
“Not only do the Jets have Rodgers coming back, but they have been touted now for a couple years, since they had that good draft [in 2022], that they’re gonna be a contender,” DraftKings director of sportsbook operations Johnny Avello told ESPN.
To find the last time the Jets were favored to win the division, you’d have to go back to 1999. That season, Vinny Testaverde tore his achilles in the second quarter of the opening game, eerily reminiscent of what the promising Jets went through last season with Rodgers.
Greenberg: The college football world was abuzz last December about how undefeated ACC champion Florida State was snubbed from the College Football Playoff. That discourse was a major reason why FSU came into this season ranked as a top-10 team, both in the preseason AP poll and in the betting odds to win the national championship.
But just two weeks into 2024 college football season, the conversation has shifted enormously. After two huge upset losses to Georgia Tech (+10.5) and Boston College (+16.5), the Seminoles became just the third FBS team since 2010 to lose its first two games outright as a double-digit favorite, joining 2015 Wyoming and 2017 Baylor, per ESPN Stats & Information.
As a result, Florida State’s future odds have plummeted. The Seminoles fell from 35-1 to 200-1 to win the national championship at ESPN BET, +150 to 20-1 to make the playoff and +300 to 25-1 to win the ACC. The team now sits eighth with Miami (+185) currently the new favorite.
Bettors might have seen Florida State’s decline coming. Before the season, the Noles had just 1.8% of handle to make the playoff and 1.2% of handle to win the national championship at BetMGM.
The Seminoles are highly unlikely to stay in AP Top 25 at 0-2, which would make them the third team since 1989, along with 2007 Michigan and 2008 Clemson, to fall out of the Top 25 in the season’s second week after being ranked inside the top 10.
The Seminoles have a bye in Week 2 before facing Memphis in Week 3 at home on Sept. 14.