Sun vs. Lynx, Aces vs. Storm — and the three most crucial games for the eighth spot
Credit to Author: Kevin Pelton| Date: Sat, 14 Sep 2024 07:52:13 EST
Heading into the final week of the 2024 WNBA regular season, five of the eight seeds in the playoffs are separated by one game in the standings. With all of the involved teams playing each other down the stretch, this means critical games are left on the schedule.
Although the New York Liberty are 3½ games up in the race for home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, the Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun are still battling for the No. 2 seed, which would mean a more favorable first-round matchup and home-court advantage, should the two meet in the semifinals.
The two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces, the top seed in last year’s playoffs, are trying to hold off the Seattle Storm to finish fourth and claim home court for what’s likely to be a first-round matchup between the two West rivals.
The most crowded race is for the eighth and final playoff spot, with the Atlanta Dream and Washington Mystics both a game back of the Chicago Sky. With three head-to-head matchups remaining among those teams, a playoff spot will be earned on the court over the next week.
Keeping those races in mind, let’s look at the five biggest games left during the WNBA regular season and how they could shape the upcoming playoffs.
Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ION
Of the teams involved in the race for eighth, the Dream have the most motivation. Atlanta previously traded its 2025 first-round pick as part of a deal for All-Star wing Allisha Gray, meaning the Dream wouldn’t derive any benefit from being in the lottery.
The Mystics subsequently landed Atlanta’s first-round pick in a trade with Dallas on draft night in 2023, which might increase Washington’s incentives to make the playoffs. If one of these two teams is going to be the eighth seed, the Mystics would rather enjoy a trip to the postseason themselves and pocket the Dream’s lottery pick.
Despite Atlanta getting healthy with Jordin Canada and Rhyne Howard starting every game since the Olympic break, it is Washington that is closing strong. After starting 0-12, the Mystics have gone .500 over the past 24 games and have won six of their past eight, including a 31-point blowout of the Sky on Wednesday. That win gave Washington the head-to-head tiebreaker should the two teams finish tied in the standings.
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET
Two nights later, these same teams will square off in the DMV. They split their first two head-to-head matchups, meaning the results of these games will determine the tiebreaker. If the Dream and Mystics split these two games, the next tiebreaker — record against teams .500 or better — would almost certainly favor Atlanta.
Given Washington finishes the season with tough matchups against New York and the Indiana Fever — who will have likely locked in their playoff seeding by then — sweeping these two games against Atlanta is something of a must for the Mystics to finish eighth.
Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Dream’s series of matchups against other contenders for the eighth seed wraps up Tuesday, when they host Chicago. Projections using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) show the Sky as a slight favorite over Washington to reach the playoffs by virtue of their game lead in the standings, but Atlanta could flip the script by beating Chicago at home.
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A Dream win here would tie the season series 2-2. From there, the tiebreaker against .500 teams remains unsettled, depending on whether the Phoenix Mercury can get to .500. One key question for this matchup is how competitive Chicago is without injured rookie All-Star Angel Reese. The Sky managed to beat the Dallas Wings 92-77 in the first game without her, but their blowout loss at home against the Mystics painted a bleaker picture.
Although Chicago doesn’t control its first-round pick, which the Wings can acquire via swap, Dallas’ lottery position means the Sky would benefit from missing the playoffs. In this scenario, the lowest 2025 pick Chicago could possibly land would be fourth.
Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET
The battle for the second seed figures to be the most consequential left to play out, potentially determining which team ultimately reaches the WNBA Finals.
Although both teams should be favored in the first round, facing the Mercury — who have lost five of their past six games, all by double-figures — feels like a much safer matchup than playing Indiana, which has passed Phoenix for the No. 6 seed. The Fever are 8-3 since the Olympic break and beat Connecticut at home last month. Perhaps more importantly, the No. 2 seed will have home-court advantage if both Connecticut and Minnesota reach the semifinals.
Having taken the first two head-to-head meetings, the Sun hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. Whichever team wins Tuesday has the inside track to second. Connecticut would just need to match Minnesota’s results the rest of the way to finish second with a win, whereas a Lynx win would potentially put them two games up in the standings and render the tiebreaker irrelevant.
Sunday’s games will also be relevant to the race for second. The Sun travel to Las Vegas, while the Lynx visit New York. Connecticut and Minnesota will be heavy favorites to win their other remaining games, which are against below-.500 teams.
Tuesday, 10 p.m. ET
Tuesday night’s crucial slate wraps up on the West Coast with the Aces visiting the Storm in what will most likely be a playoff preview. BPI projections show Las Vegas and Seattle meeting in the 4-5 matchup 93% of the time, easily the most likely single first-round series and a rematch of both the 2020 WNBA Finals and a thrilling 2022 semifinals clash.
In order to host the series, the Storm will need to win Tuesday and get some help. Although a Seattle victory would tie the season series 2-2, the Aces currently have the better record against teams .500 or better — they would have to lose both of their other games against qualifying teams (at Indiana on Friday and home against Connecticut on Sunday) for the Storm to have a chance at winning a tie.
As a result, BPI has Seattle moving up to fourth in just 13% of simulations. The Aces, meanwhile, do still have an outside chance of climbing to third by beating the Sun and winning out. However, it would require Connecticut to lose at least two of its other three remaining games (at Phoenix, vs. Minnesota and vs. Chicago). Otherwise, Las Vegas will finish either fourth or fifth, putting the Liberty in the Aces’ path back to the Finals.