O’Malley underdog to challenger Dvalishvili at UFC Noche
Credit to Author: ESPN| Date: Wed, 14 Aug 2024 14:03:36 EST
Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans with a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page | ESPN BET
UFC Noche takes place on Sept. 14 at The Sphere in Las Vegas (ESPN+ PPV). It features two title fights, including the next bantamweight title defense for Sean O’Malley. Ian Parker looks at the lines and potential props for those two bouts to offer some early analysis.
Bantamweight title fight: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili
This is one of the most anticipated title fights of 2024. It’s as close to striker vs. grappler matchup as you will get in modern MMA. Dvalishvili’s path to victory is to avoid the KO power of O’Malley and turn it into a five-round wrestling match in order to dethrone the champ. For O’Malley, he’ll have to play sprawl and brawl until he touches Dvalishvili’s chin. O’Malley is currently a +114 underdog (according to ESPN BET) and it’s definitely hard to pass up on those odds if you believe he will be able to stop Dvalishvili’s takedowns and win by TKO.
One prop to keep an eye on is the combination of O’Malley to win by KO/TKO and Dvalishvili to win by decision. Dvalishvili has been dropped in the first round of almost every fight he has been in and had to recover to get the win. When he has won, it’s been mostly by decision. The question is, if he gets dropped by O’Malley, will he be able to recover?
Flyweight title fight: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso 3
The co-main event should be a very competitive fight that will likely come down to who makes the least mistakes. I thought Shevchenko won the last fight that ended in a split draw. She was also up on all of the scorecards in the first fight until she threw a spinning wheel kick that put her in position to lose the belt. It’s hard to tell if anyone has improved since then as both fighters have not competed while waiting for the trilogy bout.
Grasso is currently a slight favorite at -115 while Shevchenko sits at -105. I expect these lines to fluctuate between now and fight day. I would lean Shevchenko here as I still believe she is the better fighter, but if you don’t want to choose a side, take the over on rounds as I believe no one gets finished in this one.
Doug Greenberg: Over seven months after Michigan took down Washington in the College Football Playoff National Championship, the Associated Press released their first Top 25 poll of the preseason Monday. The initial rankings conform with how sportsbooks view the elite teams in the country.
The top six teams in Monday’s preseason poll are also the consensus top six betting favorites to win the national championship at ESPN BET.
Georgia (+325) and Ohio State (+325) are the current co-betting favorites, followed by Oregon (+700), Texas (+850), Alabama (+1400) and Ole Miss (+1600).
The No. 7 spot in the AP poll, currently occupied by Notre Dame, is where the first discrepancy occurs. The Fighting Irish show +2500 odds to win it all in 2025, which places them tied for the eighth-shortest odds with Penn State.
The Fighting Irish have odds that are longer than LSU (+2000), who display one of the largest discrepancies between the two lists given their No. 13 ranking in the AP poll. The Miami Hurricanes also show a six-place discrepancy, ranking 13th on the odds board (+4000, tied with Tennessee) but 19th for AP.
Finally, Iowa closes out the AP poll by taking the 25th spot, but if it were up to bookmakers, the Hawkeyes wouldn’t have made the cut. Iowa (250-1, tied with five other teams) is the 30th-ranked team to win the national title.
As far as action goes, No. 2 Ohio State has been one of the most popular teams among bettors, racking up 20.5% of the tickets and 28.2% of the handle at BetMGM as of the first week of August. No. 1 Georgia has 11.8% of the bets, but an impressive 21.2% of the handle.
Doug Greenberg: Gone are the days when the Bill Belichick-led New England Patriots were betting favorites to contend for the Super Bowl at the beginning of every season. With new head coach Jerod Mayo and franchise quarterback of the future Drake Maye as the main characters of a rebuild, the Pats are seeing their worst preseason future odds in over three decades.
The Patriots are listed at 250-1 to win the Super Bowl at ESPN BET and have a regular season win total of 4.5 (juiced to the over at -150), both the lowest since the pre-Robert Kraft era in 1991 when they were 500-1 with a win total of 4.
DraftKings has individual game lines for all of New England’s games this upcoming season and the Pats are not favored in a single one. Should that hold, it would mark the first time in franchise history that the team was not favored in any game.
Line movement has not been working for the Patriots’ either: From open until today New England has moved from +1800 to +2500 to win the AFC East, +7500 to 100-1 to win the AFC, and 150-1 to 250-1 to win the Super Bowl at ESPN BET.
While the win total itself has not moved, the price on the over has moved in New England’s favor, going from -145 at open to -170 in May and ultimately settling into its current position at -150. This is likely because of the 58.4% of bets and 73.5% of money is on the over, per ESPN BET.
BetMGM denotes that the Pats are the third most-bet team by tickets in the league to go over their win total (though 58% of handle at the book is on the under) and 95% of money is on them to make the playoffs, though the action is limited, according to the book. On the flip side, New England is the most-bet team in the NFL to have the fewest wins this season at DraftKings (+320 favorite).
There is one potential transaction that may or may not factor into the Patriots’ odds this season: According to multiple reports, 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk could be traded to New England, but at this point, odds haven’t moved on the news and aren’t likely to, even if the trade goes through. This is because, as one sportsbook representative put it, “the Patriots will still be bad.”
Purdum: The first NFL preseason game attracted more betting interest than any of Thursday’s regular season baseball games at multiple sportsbooks, but a lot of the action ultimately would be refunded after the Houston Texans–Chicago Bears contest was cut short due to severe weather.
With storms rolling into Canton, Ohio, the Hall of Fame Game was stopped with 3:31 left in the third quarter and the Bears leading 21-17. The Texans closed as 2.5-point favorites at ESPN BET, with the over/under total at 32.5.
Most sportsbook rules state that football games must go 55 minutes for bets to be action, although there are some nuances. ESPN Bet and Fanatics, for example, voided wagers that had not been determined, such as the point spread and over/under totals. Successful prop bets like if a player scored a touchdown during the game were paid at Fanatics.
Texans-Bears attracted more bets than any of Thursday’s five MLB games at BetMGM sportsbooks. A spokesperson for Fanatics told ESPN that the NFL game attracted approximately 17 times more bets than the most popular MLB game (Baltimore Orioles–Cleveland Guardians).
“Despite limited participation from starters and weather leading to an early ending, Texans-Bears was one of the most popular events of the day on ESPN BET by both tickets and handle,” Patrick Jay, senior vice president and head of ESPN BET, told ESPN. “An abbreviated preseason game comparing favorably to MLB action and the Olympics signals the vast popularity of football, and how eager fans are for the return of NFL.”
Doug Greenberg: The 2024 MLB trade deadline saw many of the perennial buyers continue to buy, in turn, triggering line moves and betting action across the sportsbook marketplace.
It starts with the World Series favorite Los Angeles Dodgers, who made late July’s biggest splashes by acquiring Amed Rosario, Tommy Edman and Michael Kopech earlier in the week, followed by Jack Flaherty and Kevin Kiermaier on deadline day. While LA’s already short championship odds stayed pat at +300, their odds to win the National League pennant improved very slightly from +150 to +145 on ESPN BET.
The Dodgers are now the World Series favorite at the trade deadline for the fourth time in the last five seasons, one of which was the shortened 2020 season that saw them win it all. However, the last time the favorite at the deadline won the championship during a full season was the Chicago Cubs in 2016, per ESPN Stats and Information.
Just down the road from Los Angeles, the San Diego Padres were also busy, bolstering their pitching by grabbing Martin Perez, Tanner Scott and Jason Adam within the last week. The Pads are now +3000 to win the title across the board after being as long as +5000 one week ago. Plus, they’ve attracted the most bets to win the NL at ESPN BET (32%) and BetMGM (50%) since the beginning of this week.
The NL’s standings leader, the Philadelphia Phillies, made only some cursory trades before and at the deadline, resulting in marginal line movement. However, that didn’t stop bettors from getting excited about them: The Phils are the most-bet team to win the World Series by tickets (19.2%) since Sunday at ESPN BET, as well as the most-bet team by bets (21%) and handle (21%) since Friday at DraftKings.
The second-most-bet team at ESPN BET since Sunday and the most-bet at BetMGM since Monday is the New York Yankees, who got a boost from their trade for Jazz Chisholm Jr. over the weekend and Mark Leiter Jr. on deadline day. They moved from -125 to -150 to win the AL East, and from +600 to +500 to win the World Series at ESPN BET.
As a result, New York’s division rival, the Baltimore Orioles, got longer in their odds, going from -105 to +120 for the AL East and from +650 to +700 for the World Series. Still, they’re the most-bet team to win the pennant (29%) since Sunday at ESPN BET.
Last but not least, the Cleveland Guardians, who currently sit atop the AL standings, tightened their odds gap to the top teams, moving from +1800 to +1600 to win the World Series. They were also a popular pick among bettors, attracting 18% of the recent tickets to win the AL at ESPN BET, as well as 10.5% of the recent tickets to win the World Series at BetMGM.
Doug Greenberg: As Team USA boards their boats for the opening ceremony on the Seine River in Paris, bettors in the United States are backing their compatriots at an unsurprisingly high clip.
ESPN BET reports that 39% of bets and 55% of handle are on American athletes and teams to win gold medals in their respective events.
Topping the list is the U.S. Men’s Basketball team (-400), followed immediately by the U.S. women’s basketball team (-2000). Sprinters Noah Lyles (+140 in the men’s 100m, -350 in the 200m) and Sha’Carri Richardson (-175 in the women’s 100m) are the most-bet individual athletes on the list.
The U.S. women’s 3×3 basketball team, (-120) and soccer team (+190) come next, with Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone (-500 in women’s 400m hurdles) rounding out the top 10 for the U.S.
The only non-Americans on the list are the Canadian men’s basketball team (+900), Carlos Alcaraz (-135 in men’s tennis) and Iga Swiatek (-215 in women’s tennis), listed at seventh, eighth and ninth, respectively. DraftKings also reports that the Spain’s men’s soccer team (+200) and the French men’s basketball team (+1200) are two of their most-bet teams thus far.
Team USA has also dominated the betting markets for both most gold medals (-550) and most overall medals (-2000). The U.S. has 43% of the tickets and 64% of the money in the most overall medals market, though China (+340) has also received 50% of bets and 29% of handle, while host nation France (+6600) has gotten 7% of both tickets and handle in the gold medal and overall medal markets.
With such long odds for the U.S. in the most overall medals market, many bettors are turning to the total gold medal market. ESPN BET reported heavy action on Team USA’s opening number, 39.5 gold medals, causing it to close at 40.5 ahead of the opening ceremony.
Doug Greenberg: The Miami Heat took down the Memphis Grizzlies in overtime on Monday night to win the 2024 NBA summer league title. The annual offseason league gave many rookies their first taste of professional action — and gave both bookmakers and bettors an idea of what to expect in the upcoming season’s Rookie of the Year race.
After opening at +2000 to win the award at ESPN BET, Memphis Grizzlies’ center Zach Edey is now the standalone betting favorite at +550. The former Purdue big man became the favorite after the start of summer league and has attracted a category-leading 23.97% of the handle at the sportsbook.
Next on the list is Houston Rockets guard Reed Sheppard, who moved from +1000 at open to +650 after attracting 14.80% of the handle (second-best) and 13.61% of the bets (third-best).
Meanwhile, the only two players selected ahead of him in the 2024 NBA draft, Atlanta Hawks‘ forward Zaccharie Risacher and Washington Wizards‘ forward Alex Sarr, have both moved down the list, showing +800 and +900 after opening at +450 and +350, respectively; Sarr has gotten some modest action, but Risacher has garnered just over 1% of bets and handle at ESPN BET.
The Spurs’ Stephon Castle (+900) and the Bulls’ Matas Buzelis (+1000) both lengthened moderately following summer league action, while the Lakers’ Dalton Knecht shortened all the way down to +1000 after opening at +1800.
However, it’s Knecht’s more famous rookie teammate that has captured the attention of the betting public: Bronny James has a leading 24.76% of the tickets at ESPN BET despite having some of the longest odds on the board at 150-1.
Doug Greenberg: Sportsbooks are expecting the Boston Celtics to pick up right where they left off after a 64-win regular season and an NBA record 18th championship. ESPN BET released its win totals for the 2024-25 NBA season Wednesday and has the C’s leading the way with 58.5 wins. That would be their highest preseason win total in the past 30 years, surpassing their previous high of 56.5 in 2009-10, which they went under.
Next up are the Oklahoma City Thunder (55.5 wins), who tied the Denver Nuggets (52.5 wins) for the most wins in the Western Conference last season with 57. The New York Knicks, one of the most active teams during the offseason, has the second-highest Eastern Conference win total at 53.5, eight games higher than their total of 45.5 heading into last season. It also ties their highest preseason win total in the past 30 years, matching the 1997-98 team (they went under that season).
The NBA Finals runner-up Dallas Mavericks debut with a 50.5 win total, tying them with the Milwaukee Bucks for seventh on the list. The Los Angeles Lakers win total is 44.5 and have gone under their win total projections in each of the past five seasons.
The team with the lowest win total heading into this season is the Brooklyn Nets, who are in the midst of a rebuild following the high-profile Mikal Bridges trade. Their total is 19.5 juiced to the over at -125.
2024-25 NBA win totals
Atlanta Hawks 35.5
Brooklyn Nets 19.5
Boston Celtics 58.5
Charlotte Hornets 29.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 47.5
Dallas Mavericks 50.5
Denver Nuggets 52.5
Detroit Pistons 24.5
Golden State Warriors 42.5
Houston Rockets 42.5
Indiana Pacers 46.5
LA Clippers 40.5
Los Angeles Lakers 44.5
Memphis Grizzlies 47.5
Miami Heat 44.5
Milwaukee Bucks 50.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 52.5
New Orleans Pelicans 45.5
New York Knicks 53.5
Oklahoma City Thunder 55.5
Orlando Magic 47.5
Philadelphia 76ers 52.5
Phoenix Suns 46.5
Portland Trail Blazers 21.5
San Antonio Spurs 35.5
Sacramento Kings 46.5
Toronto Raptors 30.5
Washington Wizards 22.5